No dobt Doug will come up with some 'new age science' (or just a waving of
hands and a denial) to explain away the batteries in a Pious, but real world
figures show that hybrids are not in fact greener than 'normal' cars - in
fact they are far worse !
CNW Research have done a report on 'dust to dust' energy costs of vehicles,
which is downloadable for free from
http://cnwmr.com/nss-folder/automotiveenergy/
Once unzipped, it's a 15.3MB Word doc (it's huge because someone lacking in
nouse has pasted some large images in at the front), with 458 pages !
One point to bear in mind, this is US based research and models are
different. For example, there is a higher proportion of diesel vehicles over
here, especially in the medium SUV (4x4 to most people) sector. Thus the
figures over here should actually be slightly better for the 4x4 vs the
hybrids which are all (AFAIK) petrol.
Just skimming through it I see some choice bits :
> ... or ³off loading² manufacturing energy requirements to suppliers. In
> the latter case, for example, by requiring parts suppliers to perform
> sub-assemblies and ³modules² that go into the production of a vehicle, it
> removes that energy usage from the assembly plant to the supplier production
> line. In some cases, Toyota being one, it allows the manufacturer to claim a
> significant reduction in plant energy usage and an improvement in efficiency
> while, in reality, the energy costs have simply been moved from one site to
> another.
> Over the course of 2003, the White Board became crowded with every
> conceivable energy-required action necessary to conceive, produce, drive,
> and dispose of a vehicle. In all, nearly 4,000 data points were considered
> pertinent.
> ... a series of on-site analysis of manufacturing plants was clearly needed.
> This included, for example, the distances workers traveled to assembly
> plants; the use of mass transit and/or private vehicles; the types of
> vehicles driven; distances from home to plant.
> And while many consumers and environmentalists have targeted sport utility
> vehicles because of their lower fuel economy and/or perceived inefficiency
> as a means of transportation, the energy cost per mile shows at least some
> of that disdain is misplaced.
>
> For example, while the industry average of all vehicles sold in the U.S. in
> 2005 was $2.28 cents per mile, the Hummer H3 (among most SUVs) was only
> $1.949 cents per mile. That figure is also lower than all currently offered
> hybrids and Honda Civic at $2.42 per mile.
The data starts at page 21, where the Range Rover can be seen to be fairly
pricey at $3.775/mile, but the Prius at $3.249/mile is only 14%% better ! The
Discovery doesn't appear for another page and comes in at $2.525 (some 22%%
LOWER than the Prius).
So, want to reduce CO2 emmissions, don't buy a Prius or Civic Hybrid, buy
something with a lower energy footprint which includes :
Boxter, Land Cruiser, 5 Series, 7 Series, 911 Carrera, M3, Golf GTI, Range
Rover Sport, Imprezza, RAV4, X-Type, H3 ($1.949/mile), Mustang, C Class,
Freelander ($1.674 or just 52%% of the Prius), ...
By the time you get to the CR-V at 1.478 it is less than half the energy cost
of the Prius, and we still haven't got to the Grand Cherokee ($1.495 or just
46%%), and waaay down the bottom of the list (only three places up) is the
Wrangler at $0.604 or just 19%% of the energy footprint of the Prius !
Taking something like the Wrangler, it doesn't have the fancy electrical
stuff, the batteries etc. What it does have is panels made from basic (and
easily recycled) metal, and an average lifespan (207,000m) that is nearly
double that of a Prius (109,000m) - immediately halving the energy/mile
figure for it's creation and disposal. Inn fact, looking down the list I
don't see anything with as short a life as the Prius.
> Government, on the other hand, is a different matter. To offer incentives to
> a select group of vehicles under the guise of energy efficiency is
> misdirected because government is purported to represent all consumers, or
> society in general. Without at least the consideration of overall energy
> cost it is doing a disservice. If governments include Dust-to-Dust energy
> data and still decide to offer tax or other incentives, at least it would be
> a better informed choice.
> The first buyer of that vehicle actually pays a small portion of the total
> energy cost. But his or her purchase supports many upstream and downstream
> companies ranging from the small plastic-fastener manufacturers to the
> dealership¹s janitorial service.
> Based on the average mileage and life expectancy, there is a wide range of
> years that certain models will be on the road before being scrapped. This
> ranges from a low of 10 years to as much as 20-plus years. As segments, the
> lowest number of years are Hybrid models as a group (12.1 years) while the
> highest segment is Premium SUVs such as the Range Rover and Hummer H2 (22.2
> years).
> Much of the focus of energy usage, dependence on fossil fuels and emissions
> revolves around discussions of fuel economy. And while this is not the
> largest component in the overall ³Dust to Dust² analysis, it deserves
> central mention simply because it is the most visible area to the public.
> ...the fuel economy within the family fleet of vehicles varies only
> slightly when a hybrid is added to the mix.
>
> ... we looked at more than 6,500 households that had a mix of vehicles used
> regularly and measured the average mileage for each of those vehicles, the
> real-world fuel economy (not EPA figures) for each vehicle and calculated
> the entire family fleets miles per gallon.
Note the reference to "not EPA figures" !
The table (P71) is interesting, comparing families with a Honda Accord Hybrid
or Ford Explorer as the primary vehicle :
The Accord Hybrid was primary vehicle in 49.6%%, and secondary vehicle in
50.4%% of households - and the overall mpg was 28.1. The figures for the
Explorer were 55.2%%, 44.8%%, and 29.1mpg respectively.
So the overall mpg figure for families with a Ford Explorer as primary
vehicle was slightly better than in families with an Accord Hybrid as primary
car !
P80 :
> Among the choices given to hybrid owners was ³Makes a statement about me.²
>
> Fully a third of owners give this as their first or second reason for making
> a hybrid acquisition.
Or put another way, many people are buying the Prius as a statement - less
than 40%% gave better economy, and less than 40%% gave lower emmissions as a
primary reason. So it really is being bought as a "look at me, I'm being
green" statement rather than as a genuine attempt to cut emmissions.
> One last point about hybrids: The vast majority of owners received 60 to 70
> percent of the EPA fuel economy and dealers report a high incidence of
> customers coming back to find out ³what¹s wrong.²
>
> Clearly the EPA static drive cycle test is not realistic when evaluating
> hybrids. While that may change in the future, it clearly is the case
> currently.
Well aint that a surprise ! And backs up comments made in a number of press
articles I believe. I would suggest that the EPA figures (and our euro
figures) are simply fiddled - you can start with a fully charged battery and
finish the test with a flat battery. That will give you what is effectively
(for test calculation purposes) 'free' energy and significantly distort the
figures. Further, if the manufacturer is prepared to fit non-standard
software to allow deeper battery discharge which would normally reduce
battery life, then the figures can be further manipulated.
At page 83 we get to a table of real-world fuel consumptions - and boy, what
an eye-opener with the Prious at only 45.2 and the Accord Hybris at 30.8 !
The average for hybrids is just 36.4. OK, this is significantly better than
entry level/mid range/large SUVs at 19.2/16.6 and 15.36. - but bear in mind
that in the UK a significant proportion of SUV run on Diesel and have
significantly better mpg figures as a result. None of the Hybrids are diesel
AFAIK.
> In terms of the overall repair/maintenance story, the industry as a whole
> sees figures ranging from 169 percent to 121.5 percent of the original
> Transaction Price.
>
> The Toyota Prius is highest followed by the Toyota Highlander. All other
> hybrids are above the industry average of 135.78 percent of TP except Lexus
> LX400h.
>
> In the last case, it is a testament to Toyota¹s research and development
> that has put the latest hybrid technology in a more easily repairable and
> logical package as well as designing the equipment and components in a way
> that allows the repair and maintenance industries to simplify the
> requirements (and thus the energy needed) to repair and maintain the overall
> vehicle.
Or in other words, except for the Toyota, it's going to cost you a fortune
(both financial and environmental) to repair a Hybrid !
> Also, since the current Prius will become ³obsolete² sooner the number of
> cross-year components will be limited. Example: About a third of all
> components in a 1985 Ford F Series pickup can be used on nearly a decade¹s
> worth of F Series trucks because of long-time consistent use of those
> components in manufacturing. It is highly unlikely the low-volume Prius will
> have such a history.
P184 :
> Designing and developing new vehicles and/or updating old ones are among the
> most energy expensive parts of the new-vehicle production process. It
> requires years of intense engineering, design, parts development,
> evaluation, suitability, life-cycle vs. cost analysis, prototyping and
> vehicle integration. It is not unusual for a new vehicle to cost in excess
> of $1.5 billion just to move from concept to launch. And that doesn¹t
> guarantee success in a fickle consumer market.
And then there's some 'wuite interesting' asides like this one on page 185 :
> Another quick aside: One of the Detroit 3 had a team of engineers looking at
> how a whole vehicle and components could be recycled into future new
> vehicles.
>
> Components for the auto industry are designed to a 200,000 mile or 20 year
> lifespan. (This is a generalization, but one that works for this
> explanation.) The aircraft industry designs to a higher standard  about a
> million miles and/or 50 years.
>
> The auto company asked: ³What if we could develop major and minor components
> to this longer-lifetime standard? Could the parts be ³salvaged² and re-used
> in ³new² passenger cars?
>
> For example, if a window winder motor could be designed and built to a
> million-mile standard, what would the added cost be? The findings were
> dramatic. Quadrupling the life expectancy of a part costs about 20 percent
> more. If that part could be re-used through salvaging the window-winder
> motor and installing it in a new vehicle, a single re-use would cut the cost
> of that part by 30 percent (adjusting for refurbishing expenses, testing to
> assure a part is still good, etc.).
>
> Do that with a third of new-vehicle components and the manufacturing cost of
> the entire vehicle could be slashed as much as 20 percent.
>
> Standing in the way of implementing such a program is the higher cost of the
> original vehicle and the years it would take before longer-lifecycle
> components would be available for re-use.
So, how many parts from a Prius are llikely to get re-used, even in the diy
"scavenge from the scrapyard" sector ? Not a lot I'd hazzard a guess !
> All of the environmental changes that passenger vehicles contend with would
> kill even the best in-home or office computer and consumers have zero
> tolerance for a vehicle failing day-use while they will put up with hours on
> the phone discussing a crashed computer with a technicians or support person.
A testament to the market expectation wrought by the domination of the market
by one dominant vendor (Microsoft) with a pile of shoddy products !
P199 :
> We also looked at the energy requirements for plant employees. For example,
> at one of the largest Japanese plants, virtually all workers use mass
> transit to reach their work place. The same manufacturer in the U.S.
> Southeast has workers who all drive personal vehicles to the plant,
> typically using cars and trucks with moderate to low fuel economy. The
> differences can be significant. The domestically built Honda Accord has an
> employee energy use of approximately $1.92 per day while the energy
> requirement to get a worker to the Japanese Accord plant is less than 18
> cents per day.
>
> This particular cost is not included in the retail price of the vehicles
> because the cost is borne by the worker from his or her paycheck. But the
> energy cost is a social one.
P243 :
> Toyota currently has the most sophisticated methods of disposing of the
> nickel batteries found in Prius. But to do so today is likely to remain
> energy intense and unprofitable until the quantity of such batteries is high
> enough to encourage others to invest in the development of better recycling
> methods. CNW calculates that it costs $3 in energy to recycle a conventional
> lead acid battery and more than $93 for the Prius battery.
P252 :
> Over the past 20 years, the actual percentage of parts that are not
> recyclable in modern vehicles has increased as vehicles last longer and such
> parts become less valuable to the aftermarket. At one point in time, when
> recycling to a secondary market for secondary material manufacture, these
> bits and pieces were simply stored and reused to keep a vehicle running long
> past the original life expectancy, covered in the next chapter.
>
> That is no longer the case. As cars become more sophisticated, the ability
> to recycle or even re-use parts increases in difficulty. This is a similar
> problem with modern computers and other electronic devices. Once simple to
> repair (or, at least, cost effective) today¹s computers, televisions, radios
> and other such devices are more likely to be ³trashed² rather than fixed.
By page 303 we are into the conclusions :
> While we could expand on this for pages, the real conclusion is that there
> are many other factors involved than the simple ³fuel economy² cost that
> most consumers believe is the true measure of a vehicle¹s efficiency.
>
> For environmentalists and those concerned about CO2, for example, the adage
> that this emission knows no (national) borders is not only true but
> important to the discussion about pollution, global warming or related
> discussions. And that leads back to the ability of an automaker to produce
> simplified vehicles, the ability of the recycle/disposal industries to
> increasingly more efficient means of using those vehicles at the end of
> their lives.
>
> For government agencies, a serious consideration of the global impact has to
> be addressed when deciding on a local regulation regardless of the final
> decision.
>
> For automakers, it is important to consider all aspects of energy
> consumption and how this important social product impacts society in general.
By page 305 it's moved on into Q&As related to earlier releases. The first
one is rather relevant to us :
> Question: Is the solution (to the energy issue) converting diesel to
> bio-diesel? Which of the cars on your list are diesel? Should we do what
> Europe is doing in the area of diesel?
>
> Answer: The simple answer is yes and no. Part of the EMISSIONS solution
> would be to convert to bio-diesel, but the added energy cost of producing
> the useable bio part is higher than the energy required to produce the
> equivalent amount of diesel. This goes for clean bio and/or reusing (for
> example) restaurant leavings. This may change as technology advances,
> however.
>
> One of the problems the European model has is that they are trying to buy
> clean bio because it is less expensive to produce than converting existing
> or cast-off bio.
>
> Proving, once again, that there are consequences to every action, suppliers
> of clean bio are, in part, in South America and to produce the crops
> necessary for fresh bio they need to cut down forests (some of which are
> rain and old growth) in order to clear the land and plant the necessary
> crops. As demand for clean bio to add to diesel increases, so does the
> "necessity" to clear forested areas.