Stu wrote:

[Other newsgroups deleted}

On Sat, 23 Dec 2006 02:31:35 +0000, Stu
privacy.net> wrote:

For a start, the article does not say "Bird Flu", it talks about flu
epidemics in general. There is still no indication that "Bird Flu" is
showing any signs of mutating to become highly infectious to humans.

And then there is an appalling misuse of statistics throughout the
article. I hope the version in the Lancet is better.

And if a large meteorite struck like the one which killed off the
dinosaurs it would wipe out entire countries. And if the Mutant Space
Goat happened to come along it would eat the whole planet. How about
some actual figures of probability of the event?

Source: http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/healthnews.php?newsid=59714

If a worldwide flu pandemic like the one in 1918-20 were to strike today
it could kill between 51 and 81 million people, with 96 per cent of
deaths being in poorer countries. This was the conclusion of a US study
led by Professor Chris Murray of the Harvard Initiative for Global
Health.

The study is published in The Lancet.

The researchers used high-quality vital registration data of deaths
occuring at the time of the 1918-20 pandemic. From these figures they
estimated what the likely globaly mortality would be from a flu pandemic
if it happened today.

In a podcast interview, Professor Murray says that the impetus for the
research came from listening to colleagues talk at meetings about what
the death toll from a flu pandemic might be. Estimates ranged from 50 to
100 million to as many as 1 billion deaths worldwide, but nobody had yet
made a systematic attempt to quantify it.

"Dave Fawthrop" hyphenologist.co.uk.invalid> wrote in message
news:uehno2ttqninlege6rnoqh1fpoeig7l8q8@4ax.com...

well I never heard a fir tree sneeze so it could be a winner

Actually it was an interesting little article, thanks

Jim Webster

From this weeks issue of New Scientist

http://www.newscientist.com/backpage.ns?id=mg19225832.500

CHRISTMAS trees into Tamiflu - it doesn't quite have the ring of "swords
into ploughshares", but it may save as many lives. That, at least, is what
the Canadian firm Biolyse Pharma of St Catharines, Ontario, is suggesting.

Flu pills from Christmas trees

Tamiflu, aka oseltamivir, is the one drug that works against bird flu, and
governments are hoarding tonnes of it in case of a pandemic. Problem is,
the drug is expensive. The patent-holder, Roche, has said one reason for
this is that the drug has hitherto been made out of a rare molecule found
in a particular variety of star anise from China and... well, the market is
the market.

However, Biolyse says the molecule in question, shikimic acid, can be found
in more or less "anything botanical", especially conifers. Biolyse knows
its conifers, because it boils the cancer drug paclitaxel out of yew trees,
so when the bird flu scare in 2005 drove the price of shikimic acid above
$1000 a kilo it set about locating a ready supply.

Quote from the 'Avian Influenza Preparedness' webpage at the US Embassy in
Tunisia.
http://tunis.usembassy.gov/avian_influenza.html

"...The U.S. Department of State is recommending that its overseas employees
and their families prepare for the possibility of "sheltering in place" for
an extended period of time - up to twelve weeks..."

NOTE - U.S. Embassies around the world have offered similar advice, even if
some have since changed the 12 weeks to 2 weeks. Do a Google search to
confirm whether or not the Embassy/Consulate in YOUR country is advising the
3 months/12 weeks supply or not.

...And should you think the '12 weeks' bit is a typographical error of '2
weeks'...

Quote from the 'Ambassador's letter To American Citizens' webpage of the US
Consulate in Vietnam...
http://hochiminh.usconsulate.gov/letter.html

"...All staff and families have been advised to stockpile non-spoilable food
and safe water for up to a month, in case there is need to remain at home in
social isolation..."

Rhetorical Question - How much have you got stored away for you and yours?

Just had my pensioners flu jab so if it happens this year, I probably won't
die of Bird Flu. Hopefully ;-)

On past form this will not be as informative as the posts from the New
Scientist which I made recently.

SCIENTIFIC DOCUMENTARY: Horizon
On: BBC 2 North (102)
Date: Tuesday 7th November 2006 (starting in 1 day)
Time: 21:00 to 22:30 (1 hour and 30 minutes long)

Sorry it is so long but the original is password protected

http://www.newscientist.com/channel/health/mg19225763.300-bird-flu-outruns-the-vaccines...

Bird flu outruns the vaccines
04 November 2006
From New Scientist Print Edition. Subscribe and get 4 free issues.
Debora Mackenzie

A NEW strain of H5N1 bird flu has emerged in China and is poised to start
yet another global wave of infection. The human pandemic vaccines now being
developed will not protect against it. Worse still, nearly three times as
many Chinese poultry are infected with H5N1 now as last year, meaning there
is a greater chance of human infections - despite China's insistence that
all poultry be vaccinated against it. In fact, vaccination may be to blame
for the new strain.

The New Scientist has published this article describing how bugs cause
epidemics, or not as the case may be and the reasons why either occurs. Not
specifically about Bird Flu, but refers to it.

This counters some of the over simplistic posts which have appeared here in
the past.

Sorry I have to post the full thing, the full article is password protected
on the NS Site
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/health/mg19225751.400-the-rules-of-contagion...

FRANCE, 1918: a new, lethal strain of influenza sweeps through the
trenches, killing even young, fit soldiers. Within weeks the outbreak has
spread to ports of call in Africa, North America and onward. Over the next
two years, at least 20 million people worldwide will die in the worst
epidemic since the black death.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO, 2002: Ebola virus resurfaces, killing nearly
90 per cent of those who catch it. The epidemic does not spread much beyond
the country's borders, however, and within months it fades away, leaving a
total death toll of just 128.

http://www.farmersguardian.com/story.asp?sectioncode=44&storycode=3402

Grazing land owners to have a Herd Register
FG | 14 July, 2006
The 2006 cross-compliance supplement has been issued and, joy of joys, there
are extra provisions for SMRs (Statutory Management Requirements) 7 and
8....
...
Jim Webster farms beef and sheep on 150 acres at Barrow-in-Furness and is
president of Cumbria CLA.

http://www.farmersguardian.com/story.asp?sectioncode=44&storycode=2168

Time to capitalise on the novelty and be brutally honest about farming
FG | 12 May, 2006

A friend of mine is fond of a quote from Janet Daley, columnist and leader
writer: "What matters in politics is not what happens, but what you can make
people believe has happened."...
...Honesty in politics - it's so devious it might even catch on.

Jim Webster farms beef and sheep on 150 acres at Barrow-in-Furness and is
president of Cumbria CLA.