> On Tue, 15 Jan 2008 18:39:38 GMT, Rumpelstiltskin
> nowhere.net> wrote:
>

>>On Tue, 15 Jan 2008 17:48:18 +0100, abelard abelard.org>
>>wrote:
>>

>>>On Tue, 15 Jan 2008 14:49:43 GMT, Rumpelstiltskin
>>>nowhere.net> wrote:
>>>

>>>>On Tue, 15 Jan 2008 01:28:59 +0100, abelard abelard.org>
>>>>wrote:
>>>>

>>>>>On Tue, 15 Jan 2008 00:13:05 GMT, Rumpelstiltskin
>>>>>nowhere.net> wrote:
>>>>>

>>>>>>On Mon, 14 Jan 2008 22:25:52 -0000, "John Rennie"
>>>>>>talktalk.net> wrote:
>>>>>>

>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>"Jason P" gmail.com> wrote in message
>>>>>>>news:13onm43a6ac8027@corp.supernews.com...

>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> "John Rennie" talktalk.net> wrote in message
>>>>>>>> news:tuydnX0LPoknVRbaRVnyuQA@giganews.com...

>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> "Jason P" gmail.com> wrote in message
>>>>>>>>> news:13ondt2j6gfn3a1@corp.supernews.com...

>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> "John Rennie" talktalk.net> wrote in message
>>>>>>>>>> news:5eCdnZ4_x6jizhbanZ2dnUVZ8sijnZ2d@giganews.com...

>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> "Chris S" invalid.com> wrote in message
>>>>>>>>>>> news:fmdl4u$2rcb$1@energise.enta.net...

>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> "PJ O'Donovan" aol.com> wrote in message
>>>>>>>>>>>> news:a25ef478-0ba7-4d6f-a4de-b88437df89da@s12g2000prg.googlegroups.com...

>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Rare Snows and Cold in Saudi Arabia Ignored by US Media
>>>>>>>>>>>>>

>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Are you saying that snow in SA is evidence of a lack of global
>>>>>>>>>>>> warming?
>>>>>>>>>>>> If so why is it so rare!
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>

>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> I remember, just, when we used to have real winters. In
>>>>>>>>>>> particular I
>>>>>>>>>>> remember the winters of 1946/47 and 1963. Southern England
>>>>>>>>>>> hasn't
>>>>>>>>>>> experienced such for well over 30 years. That's why when half
>>>>>>>>>>> an inch
>>>>>>>>>>> of snow falls panic ensues. Schools close, railways grind to a
>>>>>>>>>>> halt
>>>>>>>>>>> and everyone blames each other. We are just not used to the
>>>>>>>>>>> white
>>>>>>>>>>> stuff. Now we have extremes of temperature and quite violent
>>>>>>>>>>> changes.
>>>>>>>>>>> Last Summer rainfalls in the North and Midlands were incredibly
>>>>>>>>>>> heavy
>>>>>>>>>>> producing floods that were extensive and long lasting.
>>>>>>>>>>> Something is
>>>>>>>>>>> happening to the weather, have no doubt of that.
>>>>>>>>>>>

>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I used to live in Southern New York State (Long Island/Brooklyn)
>>>>>>>>>> and I
>>>>>>>>>> remember a couple of real bad storms when I was a kid .
>>>>>>>>>> Twenty-seven
>>>>>>>>>> inches of white stuff, and several other winter storms in excess
>>>>>>>>>> of 16
>>>>>>>>>> inches. I went to a private school and fortunately lived on the
>>>>>>>>>> school's
>>>>>>>>>> property. But it was rather unfortunately uphill in both
>>>>>>>>>> directions. My
>>>>>>>>>> dad had to shovel a path in front of me so I could get there.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Those were the days... kids are not the same. neither are my
>>>>>>>>>> memories!

>

>>>>>>>>> Kids aren't the same because they didn't have to endure the
>>>>>>>>> earlier
>>>>>>>>> winters - that's my point. The climate has changed radically in
>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>> last 50 or so years in the UK. There are vineyards not only the
>>>>>>>>> south of
>>>>>>>>> England but in the Midlands too.
>>>>>>>>>

>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Nah... they are made of the same stuff, only they apply it
>>>>>>>> differently
>>>>>>>> than you, or me.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> As for the vineyards, that's just someone being enterprising enough
>>>>>>>> to
>>>>>>>> capitalize on the existing climate, and new heartier grape vines.
>>>>>>>> I'll bet
>>>>>>>> if you look at the bigger picture there is data supporting that the
>>>>>>>> South
>>>>>>>> of England and Ireland had very near Mediterranean climates all the
>>>>>>>> while.
>>>>>>>> Change in perception is hard to reconcile for some people.

>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Dear me. Don't you understand? England's climate is warmer. I
>>>>>>>speak
>>>>>>>from having endured it one way or another for over 70 years. The
>>>>>>>person
>>>>>>>who needs his perception to change is you.
>>>>>>>

>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> New England's climate is warmer too, though there was
>>>>>>just a big snowstorm so all the global warming deniers will
>>>>>>be pointing at that for a while now. My sister said that the
>>>>>>pond where we kids used to go skating every winter
>>>>>>hasn't frozen over for the last 20 years.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> There were vineyards in England in the time of the
>>>>>>Romans, though. And of course Southern Greenland was
>>>>>>habitable in the early part of the time of the Vikings.

>>>>>
>>>>>http://www.abelard.org/briefings/anthropogenic_global_warming.php#medieval_warming
>>>>>look at the two graphs below, the commentary and the nasa animation

>>>>
>>>>
>>>> The charts are a bit confusing, since the first shows 2004 at
>>>>three tenths of a degree below the zero line, and the other
>>>>shows it about the same distance above. The shapes don't
>>>>match for the last thousand years either. There doesn't seem
>>>>to be a key for what the various colours of squiggles mean.
>>>>I don't see the Nasa animation replicated in either of the
>>>>two curves.
>>>>
>>>> It looks like very interesting information. but would take a bit
>>>>of study to understand.

>>>
>>>indeed
>>>
>>>i'm not entirely clear on your problems...but i'll try!
>>>
>>>the various lines are the results of various different workers
>>> estimates....(the details are around somewhere if you can be
>>> bothered to chase them :-) )
>>>what can be done in such circs is to pick the workers you trust more.
>>> or say 'damn it' and average out the lot!...the heavy black
>>> lines tend to be such an averaging...
>>>
>>>to follow the arguments well, you need to study statistics...
>>>statistics is one of the most difficult studies of the human mind
>>> and is often poorly understood even by statisticians
>>>the may help you
>>>http://www.abelard.org/statistics.htm
>>>
>>>in statistics there is a phrase...'the law of large numbers'
>>>this tends to mean that 'errors' will (may!) get lost in large data
>>> bases....ie errors 'cancel out'
>>>
>>>one way of dealing with the problems where trends are uncertain
>>> is to do what is called a moving average.....maybe i'll try to
>>> get a page dun!....
>>>what you do is to take...say 5, 10, 12, steps in a *time* series....
>>> and average them.....then you add the next data point and
>>> subtract the first.....
>>> and these become your steps for a 'moving average'
>>> graph/chart....
>>>this is deemed to iron out errors/variations....
>>>it is particularly useful if you have a regular variation...eg 12
>>> months of the years where seasons effect your data...
>>> eg monthly sales in a shop...
>>>
>>>
>>>so in summary....there are various ways and reasons to 'smooth'
>>> out data...eg in cases of
>>> regular variation
>>> data subject to 'random' perturbation...eg years of temperature
>>> data
>>> different worker estimates.....
>>>
>>>'random' is a word that need much caution!
>>>
>>>the point of leaving in the original time series (in those graphs)
>>> is to allow more able readers of data to get an idea of
>>> how uncertain the data is...
>>>much of the weather data series are *estimates* based on 'surrogates'
>>> eg tree ring data or ice core analysis....
>>> that is a surrogate for temperature reading from 'thermometers'
>>>
>>>ie....'it' gets complicated....
>>>
>>>
>>>the nasa animation is of a *local* effect. ...ie north atlantic and
>>> probably driven by the atlantic conveyor....
>>>it is vital to clarify in your own mind the difference between global
>>> warming and local weather variations...
>>> some 'local' weather variation have very large effect...eg la
>>> nina and le nina....the nina effects switch quite often
>>> the atlantic conveyor is much more stable but is also capable
>>> of switching...
>>>
>>>'global warming' is just what it says on the packet...global....
>>> a global average.....and with the word average we are back
>>> to statistics!...and that is severe hard work and a lot of
>>> experience of reading numbers
>>>
>>>ps...am i explaining sufficiently clearly for your needs?

>

>> Yes, thanks. I thought the squiggles must be varying
>>estimates, from different sources and perhaps even from
>>different regions. The data are, as you say, highly
>>variable and not in full agreement, though the general
>>trends are visible as tracked by the black line average.
>>
>> The most interesting thing about the NASA video was
>>how the whole planet turned very pink (hotter than before)
>>over about the last 40 years. I was surprised though,
>>to see no sign of "The year without a summer", 1816,
>>in the temperature animation, not even over Europe,

>
> i would expect that to have been deliberately smoothed out
> of the data as it isn't relevant to the point....
>

> there's a site somewhere with snatches of various observations
> from those years...from several areas of the world
> including the slow development of understanding of the cause
> and various guesses as the understanding developed
>

>>where many people died from the cold that year. I did
>>see the quick transition to colder weather at the very
>>beginning of the 19th century, though, of which I
>>remember reading in Virginia Woolf's fanciful work
>>"Orlando":

>
> that's one impressive piece of writing...thanx for showing it to
> me....i read very little fiction!
>
> regards...
>

>> (end of chapter four)
>>
>> ... She heard the far-away cry of the
>> night watchman "Just twelve o'clock on a frosty morn-
>> ing." No sooner had the words left his lips than the first
>> stroke of midnight sounded. Orlando then for the first
>> time noticed a small cloud gathered behind the dome of
>> St. Paul's. As the stroke sounded, the cloud increased,
>> and she saw it darken and spread with extraordinary
>> speed. At the same time a light breeze rose and by the
>> time the sixth stroke of midnight had struck the whole
>> of the eastern sky was covered with an irregular moving
>> darkness, though the sky to the west and north stayed
>> clear as ever. Then the cloud spread north. Height upon
>> height above the city was engulfed by it. Only Mayfair,
>> with all its lights, burnt more brilliantly than ever by
>> contrast. With the eighth stroke, some hurrying tatters
>> of cloud sprawled over Piccadilly. They seemed to mass
>> themselves and to advance with extraordinary rapidity
>> towards the west end. As the ninth, tenth and eleventh
>> strokes struck, a huge blackness sprawled over the whole
>> of London. With the twelfth stroke of midnight, the
>> darkness was complete. A turbulent welter of cloud cov-
>> ered the city. All was dark; all was doubt; all was con-
>> fusion. The eighteenth century was over; the Nineteenth
>> century had begun.
>>
>> Chapter Five
>>
>> THIS great cloud which hung, not only over London,
>> but over the whole of the British Isles on the first
>> day of the nineteenth century stayed, or rather, did not
>> stay, for it was buffeted about constantly by blistering
>> gales, long enough to have extraordinary consequences
>> upon those who lived beneath its shadow. A change
>> seemed to have come over the climate of England. Rain
>> fell frequently, but only in fitful gusts, which were no
>> sooner over than they began again. The sun shone, of
>> course, but it was so girt about with clouds and the air
>> was so saturated with water, that its beams were dis-
>> coloured and purples, oranges, and reds of a dull sort
>> took the place of the more positive landscapes of the
>> eighteenth century. Under this bruised and sullen can-
>> opy the green of the cabbages was less intense, and the
>> white of the snow was muddied. But what was worse,.
>> damp now began to make its way into every house --
>> damp, which is the most insidious of all enemies, for
>> while the sun can be shut out by blinds, and the frost
>> roasted by a hot fire, damp steals in while we sleep; damp
>> is silent, imperceptible, ubiquitous. Damp swells the
>> wood, furs the kettle, rusts the iron, rots the stone. So
>> gradual is the process, that it is not until we pick up some
>> chest of drawers, or coal scuttle, and the whole thing
>> drops to pieces in our hands, that we suspect even that the
>> disease is at work.
>>
>> Thus, stealthily, and imperceptibly, none marking
>> the exact day or hour of the change, the constitution of
>> England was altered and nobody knew it. Everywhere
>> the effects were felt. The hardy country gentleman, who
>> had sat down gladly to a meal of ale and beef in a room
>> designed, perhaps by the brothers Adam, with classic
>> dignity, now felt chilly. Rugs appeared, beards were
>> grown and trousers fastened tight under the instep. The
>> chill which he felt in his legs he soon transferred to his
>> house; furniture was muffled; walls and tables were cov-
>> ered too. Then a change of diet became essential. The
>> muffin was invented and the crumpet. Coffee sup-
>> planted the after-dinner port, and, as coffee led to a draw-
>> ing-room in which to drink it, and a drawing-room to
>> glass cases, and glass cases to artificial flowers, and ar-
>> tificial flowers to mantelpieces, and mantelpieces to
>> pianofortes, and pianofortes to drawing-room ballads,
>> and drawing-room ballads (skipping a stage or two) to
>> innumerable little dogs, mats, and antimacassars, the
>> home -- which had become extremely important -- was
>> completely altered.
>>
>> Outside the house -- it was another effect of the damp
>> -- ivy grew in unparalleled profusion. Houses that had
>> been of bare stone were smothered in greenery. No gar-
>> den, however formal its original design, lacked a shrub-
>> bery, a wilderness, a maze. What light penetrated to the
>> bedrooms where children were born was naturally of an
>> obfusc green and what light penetrated to the drawing
>> rooms where grown men and women lived came through
>> curtains of brown and purple plush. But the change did
>> not stop at outward things. The damp struck within.
>> Men felt the chill in their hearts; the damp in their
>> minds. In a desperate effort to snuggle their feelings
>> into some sort of warmth one subterfuge was tried after
>> another. Love, birth, and death were all swaddled in a
>> variety of fine phases. The sexes drew further and fur-
>> ther apart. No open conversation was tolerated. Eva-
>> sions and concealments were sedulously practised on
>> both sides. And just as the ivy and the evergreen rioted
>> in the damp earth outside, so did the same fertility show
>> itself within. The life of the average woman was a suc-
>> cession of childbirths. She married at nineteen and had
>> fifteen or eighteen children by the time she was thirty;
>> for twins abounded. Thus the British Empire came into
>> existence ...
>>
>>
>>
>>