On Jan 28, 3:25 pm, rendition
stimpy.org> wrote:> Nickname unavailable wrote:
>> On Jan 28, 2:24 pm, rendition
stimpy.org> wrote:>>> Nickname unavailable wrote:
>>>> On Jan 27, 11:02 pm, rendition
stimpy.org> wrote:>>>>> Nickname unavailable wrote:
>>>>>> On Jan 27, 7:58 pm, rendition
stimpy.org> wrote:>>>>>>> Nickname unavailable wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Jan 27, 2:53 pm, rendition
stimpy.org> wrote:>>>>>>>>>> On Wed, 27 Jan 2010 10:02:32 -0700, rendition
stimpy.org> wrote:>>>>>>>>>>>> On Tue, 26 Jan 2010 21:19:17 -0800 (PST), Werner
mac.com>
>>>>>>>>>>>> wrote:>>>>>>>>>>>>> Actually, they are doing that just to try to stay in business. And you
>>>>>>>>>>>>> should ask yourself why AFLCIO doesn't offer to buy GM - turn it into
>>>>>>>>>>>>> a worker owned company.
>>>>>>>>>>>> I have wondered. Employee owned companies would be a great way out of
>>>>>>>>>>>> this. See Argentina.
>>>>>>>>>>> See: hyperinflation and currency crashes.
>>>>>>>>>>> You moron.
>>>>>>>>>> The response was workers taking over factories.
>>>>>>>>> The response was Hugo Cavez level idiocy.
>>>>>>>>>> It was Chicago school
>>>>>>>>>> economics that brought the economy down with inflation and crashes.
>>>>>>>>> It was GLOBAL banking and opaque debt instruments known as derivatives
>>>>>>>>> that brought down the economy.
>>>>>>>>>> Argentina abandoning IMF and Chicago economics that got them into
>>>>>>>>>> recovery.
>>>>>>>>> Argentina is a disaster waiting to happen, you stuttering simpleton.
>>>>>>>>>> While the US is in recession Argentina has unplugged itself form the
>>>>>>>>>> US and the result is
>>>>>>>>>> GDP growth
>>>>>>>>>> 2004 8.70 %%
>>>>>>>>>> 2005 8.30 %%
>>>>>>>>>> 2006 9.20 %%
>>>>>>>>>> 2007 8.50 %%
>>>>>>>>>> 2008 8.70 %%
>>>>>>>>>> 2009 6.80 %%
>>>>>>>>>> Definition: This entry gives GDP growth on an annual basis adjusted
>>>>>>>>>> for inflation and expressed as a percent.
>>>>>>>>>> Did you learn something new?
>>>>>>>>> No, we always knew you were a raving statist communist bastard.
>>>>>>>>>
http://en.mercopress.com/2008/11/10/argentina-s-prospects-for-2009-fl...
>>>>>>>>> Argentina�s prospects for 2009: flat growth and 20%% inflation
>>>>>>>>> The Argentine economy is forecasted to experience in 2009 almost flat
>>>>>>>>> growth, inflation above 20%%, unemployment closing on two digits and the
>>>>>>>>> US dollar in the range of 3.8 to 4 pesos according to the opinion of
>>>>>>>>> several economists.
>>>>>>>>> �These recent moves of taking over private funds generate very negative
>>>>>>>>> expectations and this are reflected in the country risk, almost in the
>>>>>>>>> range of default�, argues the former Economy minister Roberto Lavagna
>>>>>>>>> who is credited with having pulled Argentina out of the default and
>>>>>>>>> collapsed economic situation.
>>>>>>>>> Other economists go a step further and anticipate the operation to take
>>>>>>>>> over the private pension funds will have a limited impact because
>>>>>>>>> �coming maturities next year have to be paid in US dollars and not in
>>>>>>>>> Argentine pesos�. That is why the Central Bank is so reluctant to use
>>>>>>>>> international reserves to pay for Treasury debts, argues economist Jose
>>>>>>>>> Del Villar.
>>>>>>>>> �The government should repurchase sovereign debt to contain the capital
>>>>>>>>> haemorrhage and lower interest rates�, he added.
>>>>>>>>> Argentina�s budget recently approved by Congress estimates growth at 4%%
>>>>>>>>> in 2009; inflation 8%% and the US dollar at 3.19 pesos even when it
>>>>>>>>> currently trades at 3.33 pesos.
>>>>>>>>> This is also an additional problem for the government because the
>>>>>>>>> Kirchner couple strategy traditionally has been to downplay budget
>>>>>>>>> indexes so that the surpluses generated, under a special powers
>>>>>>>>> emergency act, can be disposed by government simply informing, and not
>>>>>>>>> requesting approval from Congress.
>>>>>>>> you lose sucker, what a idiot.
>>>>>>> No, ass-licker, I win, as always.
>>>>>>> On FACTS!
>>>>>> ROTFLOL. and of course your facts are color blind.
>>>>> Why yes, they are, you stupid felcher.
>>>> obtw stupid.
>>> Yes, that you are.
>
>>>> credit is denominated in dollars.
>>> Your discredit is denominated in idiotic posts.
>
>> that does not refute the fact that the monetary supply is
>> contracting,
>
> PROVE IT!
>
>> not expanding as uneducated chimps are barking and
>> braying.
>
> Use FACTS - go on, cite M3, you stupid slackwit!
>
>
http://www.chartingstocks.net/2009/03/chart-of-the-us-money-supply-19...
>
> Chart of The US Money Supply 1917-2009
>
>
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/03/fed-is-planning-15-fold-increas...
>
> The fed is planning moves that would more than double its balance-sheet
> assets by September to $4.5 trillion from $1.9 trillion. Whether
> expressing approval or concern over the fed�s intentions, most
> commentators fail to understand the real magnitude of the projected
> expansion of the US monetary base because they don�t take into account
> the amount of dollars circulating abroad.
>
> At least 70 percent of all US currency is held outside the country, and
> this means the US monetary base is considerably smaller than the fed�s
> overall balance sheet. Take, for example, the true US domestic money
> supply at the beginning of September 2008, before the fed started its
> quantitative easing. From the Federal Reserve�s website, we know that
> currency in circulation was 833 Billion. This translates as 583 Billion
> dollars circulating abroad (70 percent), and 250 Billion dollars
> circulating domestically (30 percent). Since the bank reserve balances
> held with Federal Reserve Banks were 12 billion, that gives us a 262
> Billion domestic monetary base as of September 2008. Now compare that to
> the projected US domestic monetary base for September 2009 which is
> 3,818 billion (4,500 billion � 583 billion (dollars circulating abroad)
> � 99 billion (other fed liabilities not part of the money supply)). The
> fed�s planned balance sheet expansion results in a 15-fold increase in
> the base money supply.
>
> 262 Billion = US monetary base as of September 2008 (minus dollars held
> abroad)
> 3,818 Billion = projected US monetary base in September 2009 (minus
> dollars held abroad)
>
> 3,818 Billion / 262 Billion = 15-Fold Increase in US monetary base
except, you are wrong again. the monetary base is shrinking.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6962632/America...
America slides deeper into depression as Wall Street revels
December was the worst month for US unemployment since the Great
Recession began.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 6:35PM GMT 10 Jan 2010
Comments 418 | Comment on this article
History repeating itself? President Obama has been accused by some
economists of making the same mistakes policymakers in the US made in
the Great Depression, which followed the Wall Street crash of 1929,
pictured Photo: AP
The labour force contracted by 661,000. This did not show up in the
headline jobless rate because so many Americans dropped out of the
system. The broad U6 category of unemployment rose to 17.3pc. That is
the one that matters.
Wall Street rallied. Bulls hope that weak jobs data will postpone
monetary tightening: a silver lining in every catastrophe, or perhaps
a further exhibit of market infantilism.
The home foreclosure guillotine usually drops a year or so after
people lose their job, and exhaust their savings. The local sheriff
will escort them out of the door, often with some sympathy –– just
like the police in 1932, mostly Irish Catholics who tithed 1pc of
their pay for soup kitchens.
Realtytrac says defaults and repossessions have been running at over
300,000 a month since February. One million American families lost
their homes in the fourth quarter. Moody's
Economy.com expects another
2.4m homes to go this year. Taken together, this looks awfully like
Steinbeck's Grapes of Wrath.
Judges are finding ways to block evictions. One magistrate in
Minnesota halted a case calling the creditor "harsh, repugnant,
shocking and repulsive". We are not far from a de facto moratorium in
some areas.
This is how it ended between 1932 and 1934, when half the US states
declared moratoria or "Farm Holidays". Such flexibility innoculated
America's democracy against the appeal of Red Unions and Coughlin
Fascists. The home siezures are occurring despite frantic efforts by
the Obama administration to delay the process.
This policy is entirely justified given the scale of the social
crisis. But it also masks the continued rot in the housing market,
allows lenders to hide losses, and stores up an ever larger overhang
of unsold properties. It takes heroic naivety to think the US housing
market has turned the corner (apologies to Goldman Sachs, as always).
The fuse has yet to detonate on the next mortgage bomb, $134bn (£83bn)
of "option ARM" contracts due to reset violently upwards this year and
next.
US house prices have eked out five months of gains on the Case-Shiller
index, but momentum stalled in October in half the cities even before
the latest surge of 40 basis points in mortgage rates. Karl Case (of
the index) says prices may sink another 15pc. "If the 2008 and 2009
loans go bad, then we're back where we were before – in a nightmare."
David Rosenberg from Gluskin Sheff said it is remarkable how little
traction has been achieved by zero rates and the greatest fiscal blitz
of all time. The US economy grew at a 2.2pc rate in the third quarter
(entirely due to Obama stimulus). This compares to an average of 7.3pc
in the first quarter of every recovery since the Second World War.
Fed hawks are playing with fire by talking up about exit strategies,
not for the first time. This is what they did in June 2008. We know
what happened three months later. For the record, manufacturing
capacity use at 67.2pc, and "auto-buying intentions" are the lowest
ever.
The Fed's own Monetary Multiplier crashed to an all-time low of 0.809
in mid-December. Commercial paper has shrunk by $280bn ($175bn) in
since October. Bank credit has been racing down a hair-raising black
run since June. It has dropped from $10.844 trillion to $9.013
trillion since November 25. The MZM money supply is contracting at a
3pc annual rate. Broad M3 money is contracting at over 5pc.
Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said the
Fed is baking deflation into the pie later this year, and perhaps a
double-dip recession. Europe is even worse.
This has not stopped an army of commentators is trying to bounce the
Fed into early rate rises. They accuse Ben Bernanke of repeating the
error of 2004 when the Fed waited too long. Sometimes you just want to
scream. In 2004 there was no housing collapse, unemployment was 5.5pc,
banks were in rude good health, and the Fed Multiplier was 1.73.
How anybody can see imminent inflation in the dying embers of core
PCE, just 0.1pc in November, is beyond me.
Mr Rosenberg is asked by clients why Wall Street does not seem to
agree with his grim analysis.
His answer is that this is the same Mr Market that bought stocks in
October 1987 when they were 25pc overvalued on Shiller "10-year
normalized earnings basis" – exactly as they are today – and bought
them at even more overvalued prices in 2007, long after the property
crash had begun, Bear Stearns funds had imploded, and credit had its
August heart attack. The stock market has become a lagging indicator.
Tear up the textbooks.
