> CAVEAT:
> Wall Street's rumor mills routinely manipulate
> share prices for gain with "news" plants.

> NEWS (purported)
> TOKYO - September 6, 2008., Japan's largest
> brokerage group, is considering buying a stake
> in investment bank Lehman Brothers.

> Earlier this week, South Korean media reported
> the state-controlled Korea Development Bank has
> made a proposal to acquire 25 percent of Lehman
> for as much as 6 trillion won ($5.3 billion).

> Media reports also mentioned China's CITIC
> Securities or sovereign wealth funds from Abu
> Dhabi and Qatar as possible alternatives to the
> Korean bank. Japan's Mitsubishi UFJ Financial
> Group denied reports that it was considering
> bidding for a stake in Lehman.

> Source:http://tinyurl.com/5gnrym

> COMMENTARY:

> One great benefit of having precise, reliable
> price forecasts on a stock, besides being able
> to trade it profitably, is to determine how much
> more a prospective investor is over-paying for
> shares in the target company.

> First, take a look, below. The current market
> prices LEH stock as being worth NOT $16.50 (its
> last price), but as $16.50 - $1.49 or about $15.
> Therefore, if a prospective buyer keeps silent
> and simply quietly and secretly plans to buy the
> stock, chances are excellent the shares can be
> had for about $15 in coming days.

> Do not under-estimate the $1.49 in saving per
> share. When you deal in huge quantities, they
> can make a big difference in cost.

> Of course, if the prospective buyer does not know
> better and simply begins to buy at $16.50 without
> letting the price to settle to $15, or foolishly
> pre-announce buying intentions, then it will drive
> up its acquisition cost greatly and unnecessarily.

> FORECASTS ON TICKER SYMBOL: LEH

> SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
> LEH, 20080905, 16.5000, -1.4900, -9.0
> LEH, 20080904, 15.2900, -0.1376, -0.9
> LEH, 20080903, 17.1100, -1.8786, -11.0
> LEH, 20080902, 15.5500, -1.4564, -9.4
> LEH, 20080829, 16.0600, -2.4000, -14.9
> LEH, 20080828, 15.7100, -2.7370, -17.4
> LEH, 20080827, 14.7000, -1.7557, -11.9
> LEH, 20080826, 14.1000, -2.2748, -16.1
> LEH, 20080825, 13.4700, -2.4893, -18.5
> LEH, 20080822, 14.2900, -3.5616, -24.9
> LEH, 20080821, 13.6800, -0.7532, -5.5
> LEH, 20080820, 13.6300, 0.6737, 4.9
> LEH, 20080819, 12.6500, 1.5576, 12.3
> LEH, 20080818, 15.1200, -0.0263, -0.2
> LEH, 20080815, 16.2500, -0.6932, -4.3
> LEH, 20080814, 16.4500, 0.6487, 3.9
> LEH, 20080813, 15.6400, 1.2549, 8.0
> LEH, 20080812, 16.2900, 0.3874, 2.4
> LEH, 20080811, 18.3100, 0.6661, 3.6
> LEH, 20080808, 18.5800, 0.5048, 2.7
> LEH, 20080807, 17.5200, -0.4597, -2.6
> LEH, 20080806, 19.9100, -1.7726, -8.9
> LEH, 20080805, 19.9600, -3.0990, -15.5
> LEH, 20080804, 17.9000, -0.7259, -4.1
> LEH, 20080801, 18.6500, -2.3537, -12.6
> LEH, 20080731, 17.1000, -2.5007, -14.6
> LEH, 20080730, 18.0500, -1.6920, -9.4

> Forecasts are for your informational purposes only.
> Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
> Forecasts are not trading advice or recommendations.
> Always do your own stock research and due diligence.
> Be sure to consult qualified investment professionals.

> Copyright(C) 2008 by ForecastS.Com
> Source & website: http://ForecastS.Com
> All rights reserved worldwide.
> ForecastS/Forecasts is a trademark of ForecastS.Com

> *****************************************************

> **\\ GUIDE TO INTERPRETATION OF FORECAST RESULTS //**

> GENERAL PRINCIPLE:
> The most important general principle to remember is
> that investing and trading involve mostly a patience
> to wait for good opportunities to occur and then take
> advantage of them. Do nothing until an opportunity
> presents itself. Most of us do not have the size in
> terms of money and stock holdings that big financial
> institutions do. The latter can indeed create sharp
> price changes merely by buying and selling a large
> quantity of stock. After such buying or selling is
> done, a more unbalanced situation (which may or may
> not be sufficient for sell or buy signal) is created.
> Our forecasts will then attempt to advise you if the
> imbalance is more or less bullish or bearish, so you
> can decide whether to act using the criteria you set,
> as described below.

> To illustrate how to interpret the data, we'll use
> the actual price forecasts for the stock BlackStone
> Group, ticker: BX, shown below:

> SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
> BX, 20080528, 18.6600, 0.5215, 2.8

> First, you'll notice that there are five(5) columns
> as shown above.

> As the column headings indicate, the first column
> is the ticker symbol (SYMBOL), the next column is
> the date (DATE), the third column is the last price
> (PRICE), the fourth column is the forecasted
> magnitude of future, near-term, price movement
> (FORECAST) and the last column (PERCENT) is the
> forecasted magnitude of future price movement but
> expressed as a percentage (PERCENT) of the closing
> price.

> It should be obvious that the most important
> columns to pay attention to are the FORECAST and
> the PERCENTAGE columns, which we'll discuss in more
> detail below.

> Note that the DATE column is expressed as YYYYMMDD,
> which corresponds to the date of the forecast. For
> example 20080528 would represent the year 2008, the
> month 05 (i.e. May) and the date of month 28. So
> 20080528 is May 28, 2008. Forecasts are typically
> made on the night of the date shown, typically
> several hours after the stock market has closed,
> and before mid-night, in time for the next day's
> trading.

> Let's take a look at the earlier-shown data again:

> SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
> BX, 20080528, 18.6600, 0.5215, 2.8

> Using the information we just provided, you can see
> that the stock ticker SYMBOL is BX, the DATE of
> price forecast was 20080528 or May 28, 2008. The
> PRICE was the closing price of $18.6600 (this may
> or may not reflect after-hours price) for May 28,
> 2008, the unit of price being U.S. dollar. This is
> then followed by 0.5215 (the unit again being U.S.
> dollar) which means that the stock BX is forecasted
> to likely move up by $0.5215 in the near term.

> The time frame for the fulfillment of the
> forecasted future price movement is typically
> several days, occasionally more than one or two
> weeks, or even longer. The last column shows that
> the expected price movement of $0.5215 is
> equivalent to an upside movement of 2.8%%:
> i.e. PERCENT = 100 X (FORECAST / PRICE) = 2.8

> The value of FORECAST relates to, and may be viewed
> as a measure of, the possible support or resistance
> that exists at the corresponding PRICE level, with
> a positive number suggesting potential support and
> a negative number suggesting resistance. Therefore,
> one should always have a stock's bar or candlestick
> price chart available for convenient consultation
> and corroboration with its FORECAST and PERCENT
> readings.

> At important price turning points, such as a price
> top or price bottom, the FORECAST numbers typically
> become highly negative or highly positive, to alert
> you to the strength of the resistance or support,
> respectively. Not only that, the FORECAST numbers
> also indicate the amount of price movement that is
> likely if the resistance or support holds.

> Where the FORECAST shows a high negative number, it
> hints that the direction of forecasted future price
> movement is down, with its magnitude indicated by
> the value of the negative number, once the stock
> fails to break above the current resistance. The
> PERCENT figure will also be negative, to indicate
> the downward direction.

> Conversely, if the FORECAST shows a positive number,
> as is the case for BX on May 28, 2008, it hints the
> forecasted future price movement is positive, i.e.
> up, with the magnitude of movement indicated by the
> value of the positive number. In this case, the
> PERCENT figure will be positive, to reflect upward
> direction.

> For better trading results, one should review past
> FORECAST values for the same stock, and these are
> typically provided, going back several months. A
> quick review of past forecasts provides a better
> grasp of the significance of the latest, current
> forecast. The reason is that by simply looking at
> past forecasts, one can quickly see where the past
> short-term price tops and bottoms were and their
> corresponding past forecast readings (i.e. FORECAST
> and PERCENT values) at those important junctures.

> The current, latest FORECAST and PERCENT can then
> be mentally compared to those past extreme values
> to see if the current readings are at or near those
> past extremes. If not, one may choose to wait a
> while, in case the readings becomes more extreme in
> the coming days, before taking action. Knowing
> whether to wait will help avoid acting too soon,
> and this tends to improve trading performance while
> reducing risk.

> Now, let's take a look at the past forecasts for BX
> (shown below):

> SYMBOL, DATE, PRICE, FORECAST, PERCENT
> BX, 20080528, 18.6600, 0.5215, 2.8
> BX, 20080527, 18.9100, 0.4243, 2.2
> BX, 20080523, 18.5400, 1.4067, 7.6
> BX, 20080522, 19.1600, 0.7023, 3.7
> BX, 20080521, 19.3300, 0.4556, 2.4
> BX, 20080520, 20.5900, 0.1384, 0.7
> BX, 20080519, 20.2300, -0.3795, -1.9
> BX, 20080516, 20.0200, -0.5328, -2.7
> BX, 20080515, 20.6500, -0.9681, -4.7
> BX, 20080514, 19.5000, -0.1523, -0.8
> BX, 20080513, 19.0500, -0.1559, -0.8
> BX, 20080512, 18.9700, 0.2627, 1.4
> BX, 20080509, 19.2700, 0.1482, 0.8
> BX, 20080508, 18.8000, 0.5186, 2.8
> BX, 20080507, 19.3500, 0.6359, 3.3
> BX, 20080506, 19.4700, -0.0480, -0.2
> BX, 20080505, 19.5600, -0.6820, -3.5
> BX, 20080502, 20.2600, -0.9183, -4.5
> BX, 20080501, 19.4500, -0.3195, -1.6
> BX, 20080430, 18.6000, 0.3533, 1.9
> BX, 20080429, 18.8100, -0.1200, -0.6
> BX, 20080428, 18.9500, -0.2970, -1.6
> BX, 20080425, 19.1800, -0.2541, -1.3
> BX, 20080424, 18.5000, 0.0192, 0.1
> BX, 20080423, 18.3300, 0.3143, 1.7
> BX, 20080422, 18.6200, -0.1133, -0.6
> BX, 20080421, 18.6800, -0.6790, -3.6
> BX, 20080418, 19.0100, -1.0060, -5.3
> BX, 20080417, 18.6800, -0.8970, -4.8
> BX, 20080416, 17.7000, 0.0543, 0.3
> BX, 20080415, 17.3300, 0.5899, 3.4
> BX, 20080414, 17.2016, 0.8348, 4.9
> BX, 20080411, 17.7500, 0.5165, 2.9

> A quick glance of the above forecast history for BX
> shows that in the past when the PERCENT is close to
> or greater than 5%% or the FORECAST more positive
> than $0.80, it suggests prices are bottoming and a
> future price rise may be imminent.

> On the other hand, if the PERCENT is -4.5%% or more
> negative, or the FORECAST is about -$0.90 or even
> more negative, then it indicates prices are likely
> peaking, and a price drop could be imminent.

> Note that each stock has its own peculiarities as
> to what FORECAST and PERCENT readings are extreme.
> Extreme FORECAST or PERCENT readings for one stock
> may often be too extreme, or not extreme enough, if
> applied to another stock. Therefore, the history
> of past forecasts for a particular stock should be
> reviewed on its own, independent of other stocks.

> Even the same stock may change over time as to what
> constitute extreme readings for its FORECAST and
> PERCENT. It is advisable to review the most recent
> forecasts first and then go back to older forecasts,
> to detect any gradual changes in extreme values.
> Such a historic forecast review takes only a few
> seconds, but it will save a lot of wondering and
> guessing, and will very likely improve your trading
> decision-making and performance. Forecast history
> review will help make your stock timing a lot more
> accurate and profitable.

> Some people, on first impression, might think the
> forecast is for the very next day. It is not so.
> Most of the time, a FORECAST may take two or many
> more days to fulfill.

> Occasionally, it only takes just one or two days to
> reach the price change forecasted. It really
> depends on the particular stock and its special
> situation.

> There are times the forecasts won't be right, or
> won't be realized. Perfection is not possible.
> This is no different from real life situations of
> support and resistance levels that can fail. For
> example, a stock may be at a strong support level
> as shown by its very positive FORECAST and PERCENT
> readings. However, in a strongly down-trending
> market, or where there is persistent selling, even
> a strong support level may wear off. Should this
> be happening, the FORECAST and PERCENT readings
> will usually warn you in advance of such potential
> failure of support with less positive readings, as
> price stays the same or drops.

> . Conversely, a stock may be at a strong resistance
> level, as shown by its very negative FORECAST and
> PERCENT readings. However, in a strongly bullish
> broad market, or where there is persistent buying,
> even a strong price resistance may fail to stop a
> price break-out. In such cases, the FORECAST and
> PERCENT readings will usually warn you in advance
> of such potential price break-out, or failure of
> resistance level, with less negative readings, as
> price stays the same or rises. This is why it is
> important to pay attention not just to the degree
> of extremeness of the FORECAST and PERCENT values,
> but also to their subtle changes relative to the
> price changes. If you do so, you'll rarely have
> any surprises.

> Thus, it is usually advisable to wait for extreme
> readings, even though that, by itself, is not a
> guarantee of profit. Such patient approach, with
> a willingness to wait, and being alert to extreme
> FORECAST and PERCENT readings, and their subtle
> changes, is usually much safer and more rewarding
> in the long run. This is especially important to
> beginners or those who have only a modest amount
> of risk capital, and therefore limited ability to
> average down (when long), or up (when short).

> Unless one is extremely experienced and/or has a
> very large portfolio, it is usually not advisable
> to trade on minor or modest FORECAST and PERCENT
> readings, as these typically indicate rather weak
> or insignificant price levels of weak resistance
> (if negative) or support (if positive). That is
> not to say that mild or moderate FORECAST and
> PERCENT readings are always not profitable or
> worthwhile, because they can be, especially for
> very short-term players, such as day-traders.
> Should one decide to trade even on weak FORECAST
> and PERCENT readings, on should definitely limit
> his/her risk by committing much less risk capital
> than when the readings are near the extremes.

> As mentioned earlier, important price tops and
> bottoms usually, but not always, correspond to
> extreme negative and positive readings.

> Some stocks are "better behaved" than others, or
> "better behaved" at one time than another. If you
> find a stock behaving poorly with respect to the
> price forecasts, then do not trade it, or at least
> avoid it, but find another stock that is "better
> behaved". The reasons for "poor behavior" can be
> many and varied. One is strong herd behavior in a
> particular stock where the high emotion and crowd
> conformity happen to be dominant, which can lead to
> either excessive optimism or pessimism at or near
> price tops or bottoms, leading to extreme swings.
> Another possibility is the relative low volume of
> trading in some stocks that can easily exaggerate
> trader or investor excesses. The FORECAST and
> PERCENT readings do adjust even for such cases.
> However, how successful are such adjustment efforts
> will vary with each stock.

> It is usually not advisable to trade against the
> forecasts, especially when the FORECAST and PERCENT
> readings are strong, i.e. at or near their extremes.
> In other words, very bullish readings hint that one
> should probably cover short, reduce or close out
> other bearish positions such as puts, and go long.
> Conversely, for very negative FORECAST and PERCENT
> readings, one should consider selling long, cutting
> or closing out bullish positions such as naked puts,
> and probably planning on opening short positions.
> At all times, one should be mindful that even very
> strong support and resistance price levels can fail
> to hold when there is strong and persistent selling
> or buying. Extremely positive or negative FORECAST
> and PERCENT readings merely indicate strong support
> or resistance, and the likely future price movement
> IF said support or resistance holds firm.

> It is important that only a small portion of risk
> capital allocated to a particular stock situation
> be committed at a time, and one should be prepared
> to do scale trading. This ensures that potential
> profit opportunity (whether bullish or bearish) is
> not missed, yet retains the flexibility and ability
> to act effectively to counter and take advantage of
> any unexpected (including adverse) developments.
> With reliable and precise price forecasts available,
> averaging down (for long) and up (for short) may be
> far more sensible and profitable than stop-loss
> techniques, especially when such scale trades are
> done at favorable price junctures, and the correct
> option strategy is used in combination, as needed.