The Chinese Saga of Olympic Shame Continues: The Portrait of a Flip-Flop
"Olympic Host" -- Understanding the PLA's Thanksgiving Message

Understanding the PLA's Thanksgiving Message
By Andre Pachter
China Confidential
Nov 26, 2007

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China's decision to block a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier from a
long-planned Thanksgiving visit to Hong Kong, before relenting 24 hours
later "on humanitarian grounds," was a message from China's real
rulers―the military―that they intend to vigorously oppose an announced
U. .S buildup of Taiwan's antimissile shield.

The $940 million upgrade to the island's Patriot II antimissile shield
would help Taiwan resist reunification with the mainland and strengthen
"splittist" tendencies, in the view of the People's Liberation Army.

The flip-flop was also directed at the Communist Party, whose power the
PLA has supplanted, according to China Confidential analysts. The
military engineered an embarrassing diplomatic incident to remind the
party that the PLA has its priorities and red lines. (Literally red as
well as figuratively. A growing neo-Maoist faction in the military is
worried that the inequality caused by the party's continuing commitment
to Western-style consumerism, coastal city development at the expense of
the restive, left-behind countryside, and massive urbanization is
ultimately unsustainable and likely to lead to regime-threatening
popular uprisings―perhaps, even, a civil war―which the PLA will have to
put down at great cost.)

The PLA believes that a missile defense upgrade would violate a U.S.
commitment to reduce weapons transfers to Taiwan. The Patriot upgrades
would for the first time enable units to launch either Patriot Guidance
Enhanced Missiles or Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles. Guidance
Enhanced Missiles use blast fragmentation warheads to destroy an
incoming missile. The PAC-3 uses a warhead that collides with the target.

China has nearly 1,000 short range ballistic missiles deployed within
striking distance of island is adding about 100 missiles a year to this
arsenal, and is developing other capabilities aimed at preventing U.S.
military intervention in the early days of a cross-Strait conflict.

The PLA regards Taiwan as a renegade province and is determined to take
back the island. Sources say the PLA forced passage of the
"Anti-Secession" law that authorized―actually, mandated―military force
to prevent Taiwan from moving toward "de jure" independence. Taiwan has
had de facto independence since 1949; but the PLA is trying to prevent
the thriving, self-ruled democracy from gaining international
recognition as an independent country that can't be attacked by Beijing
without a violation of international law. Hence, China's anger over the
Taiwanese government's attempts to appy for United Nations membership
and plans for a referendum on joining the world body (to which Taiwan
belonged as the Republic of China before its seat was given to the PRC
in October 1971).

The PLA is also upset over possible U.S. sales to Taiwan of a dozen P-3C
Orion anti-submarine patrol aircraft and SM-2 anti-aircraft missiles
worth more than $2.2 billion.

Copyright Andre Pachter. Published with permission. Andre
Pachter's blog China Confidential may be read at:
http://chinaconfidential.blogspot.com/

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