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Author: Jim WalshJim Walsh Date: Jun 21, 2008 15:52
I would like to discuss an invasion of Taiwan, an island, and in particular
the tactical and strategic difficulties thereof.
Unfortunately I have no military experience so I have added
sci.military.naval to the newsgroup list (I tried to add
sci.military.moderated, but it didn't propagate) I hope those who post there
will consider giving the advantage of their experience to us. My thoughts, to
begin the discussion, are as follows:
The first 15 minutes or so of Saving Private Ryan shows the difficulty (and
cost in lives) of a sea invasion.
Quite a few Mainland Chinese nationalists imagine that an invasion of Taiwan
by the People's Liberation Army (to use its ironic formal name) would be a
cakewalk. They should rent the DVD and take a hard look.
The sea invasion depicted there would differ in several respects from a sea
invasion from the PRC into Taiwan.
(1) The allies had total control of the sea and of the air all during the
invasion. No part of the invasion fleet was sunk at sea.
(2) Although the Germans defended the site of the invasion, they were fooled
into putting most of their defenders at other locations.
In spite of (1) and (2) the most reliable sources say:
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Author: deemsbilldeemsbill Date: Jun 21, 2008 16:12
On Jun 21, 9:52 am, Jim Walsh gmNOail.com> wrote:> I would like to discuss an invasion of Taiwan, an island, and in particular
> the tactical and strategic difficulties thereof.
>
> Unfortunately I have no military experience so I have added
> sci.military.naval to the newsgroup list (I tried to add
> sci.military.moderated, but it didn't propagate) I hope those who post there
> will consider giving the advantage of their experience to us. My thoughts, to
> begin the discussion, are as follows:
>
> The first 15 minutes or so of Saving Private Ryan shows the difficulty (and
> cost in lives) of a sea invasion.
>
> Quite a few Mainland Chinese nationalists imagine that an invasion of Taiwan
> by the People's Liberation Army (to use its ironic formal name) would be a
> cakewalk. They should rent the DVD and take a hard look.
>
> The sea invasion depicted there would differ in several respects from a sea
> invasion from the PRC into Taiwan.
> ...
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Author: Jim WalshJim Walsh Date: Jun 21, 2008 16:30
> On Jun 21, 9:52 am, Jim Walsh gmNOail.com> wrote:>> (1) a PRC invasion could be a surprise, and
>
> Doubtful, but never say never. They would have to use some
> serious deception.
Without any military experience, just reading books, I also don't think it is
possible for the invasion to be a surprise.
>> (2) what sort of PRC losses could be expected, given that the PLA will not
>> control the sea or the air.
> If they first got the US out of the picture, they could
> just pound the crap out of Taiwan until they got control of the sea
> and land. If they couldn't get the US out of the picture, I can't see
> them attempting the invasion because the costs would far outweigh the
> benefits.
How likely is it that the PLA could "get the US out of the picture"? Assuming
the US did not bail, does the PLA have the capability to do this?
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Author: deemsbilldeemsbill Date: Jun 21, 2008 16:59
>
>> Doubtful, but never say never. They would have to use some
>> serious deception.
>
> Without any military experience, just reading books, I also don't think it is
> possible for the invasion to be a surprise.
My non-expert opinion is that China couldn't build up the
overwhelming force needed to assure sucess in secret. I'm sure the PLA
would also prefer a softening up period prior to landing troops which
would give a hint or two that an invasion was coming.
China would have to choose between a full build-up without
surprise or throwing as many troops across as could be concentrated
without raising suspicion.
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Author: rst0wxyzrst0wxyz Date: Jun 21, 2008 17:55
On Jun 21, 6:52 am, Jim Walsh gmNOail.com> wrote:> I would like to discuss an invasion of Taiwan, an island, and in particular
> the tactical and strategic difficulties thereof.
>
> Unfortunately I have no military experience so I have added
> sci.military.naval to the newsgroup list (I tried to add
> sci.military.moderated, but it didn't propagate) I hope those who post there
> will consider giving the advantage of their experience to us. My thoughts, to
> begin the discussion, are as follows:
>
> The first 15 minutes or so of Saving Private Ryan shows the difficulty (and
> cost in lives) of a sea invasion.
>
> Quite a few Mainland Chinese nationalists imagine that an invasion of Taiwan
> by the People's Liberation Army (to use its ironic formal name) would be a
> cakewalk. They should rent the DVD and take a hard look.
>
> The sea invasion depicted there would differ in several respects from a sea
> invasion from the PRC into Taiwan.
> ...
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Author: rst0wxyzrst0wxyz Date: Jun 21, 2008 18:12
On Jun 21, 7:12 am, "deemsb...@ aol.com" aol.com> wrote:> On Jun 21, 9:52 am, Jim Walsh gmNOail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>>> I would like to discuss an invasion of Taiwan, an island, and in particular
>> the tactical and strategic difficulties thereof.
>
>> Unfortunately I have no military experience so I have added
>> sci.military.naval to the newsgroup list (I tried to add
>> sci.military.moderated, but it didn't propagate) I hope those who post there
>> will consider giving the advantage of their experience to us. My thoughts, to
>> begin the discussion, are as follows: >
>> The first 15 minutes or so of Saving Private Ryan shows the difficulty (and
>> cost in lives) of a sea invasion.
>
>> Quite a few Mainland Chinese nationalists imagine that an invasion of Taiwan ...
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Author: guyguy Date: Jun 21, 2008 18:18
On 21 Jun, 14:52, Jim Walsh gmNOail.com> wrote:> I would like to discuss an invasion of Taiwan, an island, and in particular
SNIP
>
> Now, I want to consider whether:
>
> (1) a PRC invasion could be a surprise, and
>
Extremely unlikely, as a build up of invasion craft takes production
and time, they then have to be concentrated (and you need lots of
them) DDay worked because masssive air superiority drastically reduced
German aerial reconaissance. The US can watch mainland China with
ease. Remember unless they take a Mulbery equivalent with them they
will have to take a port ***immediately*** (I do not know Taiwan, any
suggestions on which this might be?)
> (2) what sort of PRC losses could be expected, given that the PLA will not
> control the sea or the air.
Extremely heavy I would guess
Guy
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Author: guyguy Date: Jun 21, 2008 18:24
On 21 Jun, 17:18, guy googlemail.com> wrote:> On 21 Jun, 14:52, Jim Walsh gmNOail.com> wrote:> I would like to discuss an invasion of Taiwan, an island, and in particular
> SNIP
>>> Now, I want to consider whether:
>
>> (1) a PRC invasion could be a surprise, and
>
> Extremely unlikely, as a build up of invasion craft takes production
> and time, they then have to be concentrated (and you need lots of
> them) DDay worked because masssive air superiority drastically reduced
> German aerial reconaissance. The US can watch mainland China with
> ease. Remember unless they take a Mulbery equivalent with them they
> will have to take a port ***immediately*** (I do not know Taiwan, any
> suggestions on which this might be?)
>
>> (2) what sort of PRC losses could be expected, given that the PLA will not
>> control the sea or the air.
>
> Extremely heavy I would guess ...
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Author: deemsbilldeemsbill Date: Jun 21, 2008 18:26
On Jun 21, 12:12 pm, rst0wxyz yahoo.com> wrote:> On Jun 21, 7:12 am, "deemsb...@ aol.com" aol.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>>> On Jun 21, 9:52 am, Jim Walsh gmNOail.com> wrote:>
>>> I would like to discuss an invasion of Taiwan, an island, and in particular
>>> the tactical and strategic difficulties thereof.
>
>>> Unfortunately I have no military experience so I have added
>>> sci.military.naval to the newsgroup list (I tried to add
>>> sci.military.moderated, but it didn't propagate) I hope those who post there
>>> will consider giving the advantage of their experience to us. My thoughts, to
>>> begin the discussion, are as follows: >
>>> The first 15 minutes or so of Saving Private Ryan shows the difficulty (and
>>> cost in lives) of a sea invasion. ...
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Author: deemsbilldeemsbill Date: Jun 21, 2008 18:29
On Jun 21, 11:55 am, rst0wxyz yahoo.com> wrote:> On Jun 21, 6:52 am, Jim Walsh gmNOail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>>> I would like to discuss an invasion of Taiwan, an island, and in particular
>> the tactical and strategic difficulties thereof.
>
>> Unfortunately I have no military experience so I have added
>> sci.military.naval to the newsgroup list (I tried to add
>> sci.military.moderated, but it didn't propagate) I hope those who post there
>> will consider giving the advantage of their experience to us. My thoughts, to
>> begin the discussion, are as follows: >
>> The first 15 minutes or so of Saving Private Ryan shows the difficulty (and
>> cost in lives) of a sea invasion.
>
>> Quite a few Mainland Chinese nationalists imagine that an invasion of Taiwan ...
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