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Author: Robert ClarkRobert Clark Date: Dec 24, 2007 10:07
Would you give up your immortality to ensure the success of a
posthuman world?
Answering hard questions at the World Transhumanist conference.
Ronald Bailey | July 27, 2007
"...The final speaker was inventor and self-acknowledged transhumanist
Ray Kurzweil, who argues that "The Singularity is Near." The
singularity is a metaphorical social event horizon in which
accelerating technological trends so change society that it is
impossible to forecast what the world will really be like. Kurzweill
believes that humanity will accelerate itself to utopia (immortality,
ubiquitous AI, nanotech abundance) in the next 20 to 30 years. For
example, he noted that average life expectancy increases by about 3
months every year. Kurzweil then claimed that longevity trends are
accelerating so fast that the life expectancy will increase more than
one year for each year that passes in about 15 years. In other words,
if you can hang on another 15 years, your life expectancy could be
indefinitely long. He projects that by 2030, AI will be ubiquitous,
and most humans will be physically melded to information and other
technologies. Kurzweil argued that we must reject the fundamentalist
desire to define humanity by its limitations. 'We are the species that ...
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Author: lal_truckeelal_truckee Date: Dec 24, 2007 11:45
Robert Clark wrote:
> Kurzweil then claimed that longevity trends are
> accelerating so fast that the life expectancy will increase more than
> one year for each year that passes in about 15 years. In other words,
> if you can hang on another 15 years, your life expectancy could be
> indefinitely long.
Guy doesn't understand "life expectancy" statistics.
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Author: Gutless Umbrella Carrying SissyGutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy Date: Dec 24, 2007 11:52
> Robert Clark wrote:
>> Kurzweil then claimed that longevity trends are
>> accelerating so fast that the life expectancy will increase
>> more than one year for each year that passes in about 15 years.
>> In other words, if you can hang on another 15 years, your life
>> expectancy could be indefinitely long.
>
> Guy doesn't understand "life expectancy" statistics.
>
Or a lot of other things.
--
Terry Austin
"There's no law west of the internet."
- Nick Stump
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Author: John SchillingJohn Schilling Date: Dec 24, 2007 11:57
On Mon, 24 Dec 2007 12:02:39 -0800, Jon Schild xmission.com> wrote:
>
>Robert Clark wrote:
>> Would you give up your immortality to ensure the success of a
>> posthuman world?
>
>Absolutely. And it isn't that hard a question. Maybe when you are 20 or
>30 the idea of living forever seems attractive, but wait until you get
>older and assorted body parts no longer work like they should. Then you
>can understand the full meaning of a button I have seen at several
>worldcons:
>
>"Immortality -- A Fate Worse than Death"
Which mostly only means that the English language doesn't yet have the
right terminology for discussing "immortality".
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Author: Gene Ward SmithGene Ward Smith Date: Dec 24, 2007 12:00
On Dec 24, 10:07 am, Robert Clark yahoo.com> wrote:
> Kurzweil then claimed that longevity trends are
> accelerating so fast that the life expectancy will increase more than
> one year for each year that passes in about 15 years.
Back in the sixties, I read an article in Analog where the author
claimed speeds attained by humans were increasing so fast that before
the end of the century we would be able to travel faster than light.
It came equipped with a graph, which extrapolated these speeds into an
asymptotic blowup. Finding the fallacies in this class of argument is
left as an exercise for the reader.
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Author: Gutless Umbrella Carrying SissyGutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy Date: Dec 24, 2007 12:06
Gene Ward Smith gmail.com> wrote in
news:25e13488-af72-4162-b958-afbb9c160fcd@s8g2000prg.googlegroups.c
om:
> On Dec 24, 10:07 am, Robert Clark yahoo.com>
> wrote:
> >> Kurzweil then claimed that longevity trends are
>> accelerating so fast that the life expectancy will increase
>> more than one year for each year that passes in about 15 years.
>
> Back in the sixties, I read an article in Analog where the
> author claimed speeds attained by humans were increasing so fast
> that before the end of the century we would be able to travel
> faster than light. It came equipped with a graph, which
> extrapolated these speeds into an asymptotic blowup. Finding the
> fallacies in this class of argument is left as an exercise for
> the reader.
>
And practical fusion is only 20 years away.
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Author: Gene Ward SmithGene Ward Smith Date: Dec 24, 2007 12:25
On Dec 24, 11:57 am, John Schilling spock.usc.edu> wrote:
> So, "immortality" in the body you had at twenty-five? Because I think
> that, barring a short transitional period, that's the only sort that's
> really in the cards.
>
> And I don't think we'll actually see it in fifteen years, but possibly
> within fifty years.
What's your definition of "immortality"?
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Author: Matthias WarkusMatthias Warkus Date: Dec 24, 2007 14:44
Gutless Umbrella Carrying Sissy schrieb:
> Gene Ward Smith gmail.com> wrote in
> news:25e13488-af72-4162-b958-afbb9c160fcd@s8g2000prg.googlegroups.c
> om:
> >> On Dec 24, 10:07 am, Robert Clark yahoo.com>
>> wrote:
>>>>> Kurzweil then claimed that longevity trends are
>>> accelerating so fast that the life expectancy will increase
>>> more than one year for each year that passes in about 15 years.
>> Back in the sixties, I read an article in Analog where the
>> author claimed speeds attained by humans were increasing so fast
>> that before the end of the century we would be able to travel
>> faster than light. It came equipped with a graph, which
>> extrapolated these speeds into an asymptotic blowup. Finding the
>> fallacies in this class of argument is left as an exercise for
>> the reader.
>>
> And practical fusion is only 20 years away. ...
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Author: William December StarrWilliam December Starr Date: Dec 24, 2007 15:26
In article news.xmission.com>,
Jon Schild xmission.com> said:
> And it isn't that hard a question. Maybe when you are 20 or 30 the
> idea of living forever seems attractive, but wait until you get
> older and assorted body parts no longer work like they
> should. Then you can understand the full meaning of a button I
> have seen at several worldcons:
>
> "Immortality -- A Fate Worse than Death"
That presumes that immortality == being stuck in the same worn-out
meat forever.
--
William December Starr panix.com>
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Author: David JohnstonDavid Johnston Date: Dec 24, 2007 16:16
On Mon, 24 Dec 2007 10:07:43 -0800 (PST), Robert Clark
yahoo.com> wrote:
>Would you give up your immortality to ensure the success of a
>posthuman world?
>Answering hard questions at the World Transhumanist conference.
>Ronald Bailey | July 27, 2007
>"...The final speaker was...
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