http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/rosnerMain.jhtml
Congress likely to see record number of Jewish legislators

In Will next U.S. Congress top
current record number of Jewish lawmakers?,
and in Will we see a record
number of Jewish lawmakers?

(Round 2)

I was trying to "predict whether the
2008 Congress will break the record
number of Jewish legislators that was
established in the 2006 election cycle".

The answer was: it is possible.

A Democratic tsunami will be
the main factor influencing
such outcome.

Now it is time for an update,
and for an even more upbeat
assessment

(from a Jewish, not political, point of view).

In some of the races changes have occurred;
in others we have new polls.

The chance for a new record
seem to have improved.

Few Jewish candidates are
in danger of losing seats -
more Jewish candidates have
improved their chances of
winning seats.

So, "my fellow obsessive Jew-counters,"
here is what you need to know:

In the Senate,
the two Jewish incumbents
running against Jewish
challengers
(Coleman in MN and
Lautenberg in NJ)
seem pretty safe.

But in the House, some races are very close.

1. Alaska at large is a toss up,
and two weeks before the primaries,
candidate Eithan Berkowitz`
chances are quite good.

He has received more money and
his poll numbers are going up.

He can win it all.

2.

If it were up to the newspapers
to selecting nominees, Howard Shanker
would not be one this year.

The Arizona Republic has endorsed
someone else for the Democratic
nomination, and Shanker's chances
of winning the primary battle still
seem questionable.

If he does though,
the general election will
be a match to watch.

Arizona 1st Congressional District is a toss up.

3. New Jersey District 3 race,
with candidate John Adler running
as the Democratic candidate, is
still listed as a toss up,
but experts I've been talking
to agree that Adler has an edge.

These fund raising numbers will
help you understand why this
coming November, he is more
likely than not to be added
to the Jewish legislators' column.

4.

When we wrote about New Jersey District
5 and the race of Rabbi Dennis Shulman
we said it was a long shot.

Later we updated this assessment,
highlighting the fact that the
Democratic Party added the race
to a list of emerging races.

The Cook Political Report still
gave an advantage to the Republican,
but Shulman is getting more and more
attention.

Not long ago,
Time magazine, reported that
"While Garrett may be the
district's traditional choice,
any political professional from
either party will confirm that
these are unconventional times.

So, the fact that Shulman is anything
but a conventional candidate may yet
turn the race for New Jersey's 5th
District into a humdinger."

5. Gary Trauner of Wyoming is another
race that we included in the long shot
column,

but reports from past weeks have
highlighted the fact that he is
leading in fund raising and
actually doing quite well.

Here is one State Senator explaining
why this year can be the year for a
Democrat like Trauner:

"Obama's biggest impact may be that
he doesn't create a dynamic that will
hurt Trauner's candidacy".

6. John Shadegg is still the leading
candidate in Arizona's 3rd Congressional
District, but Bob Lord is not going to
go away easily with fund-raising as
impressive as this.

7. Last but not least: Judy Feder of
the Virginia State battle will be
getting a boost of money and support
from the Party.

The reason:

She is now part of the Red to Blue program.

"The DCCC, which only aids candidates for House seats,
selects candidates for the program who surpass certain
fundraising goals and who have a reasonable chance of
winning in the fall".

And if they see a chance for
success for her candidacy-so should we.

Bottom line:

Two new Jewish House members
are needed to break the record.

It is not just possible,
I think it is likely.