At 28 Jan 2010 19:54:40 -0500 nospam wrote:
>>>> I think Dennis' point was the difficulty of
>>>> placing the "unlocked" iPad on a non-"partner" carrier. T-Mobile,
>>>> for example, right here in the USA doesn't use these SIMs, and
>>>> likely won't be anytime soon, so there will be no way to use this
>>>> "unlocked" device on
>>>> another carrier in the USA.
>>>
>>> what makes you think they won't be using them any time soon? here
>>> is a device that *can* work on t-mobile without any hacks. why
>>> would they ignore that?
>>
>> Lack of revenue. The iPad lacks voice capability, so it'd be limited
>> to a data only plan, which T-Mobile sells for $5 MORE than AT&T.
>
> up until yesterday, at&t offered 100 meg for $20/mo on pay as you go
> and now it's $15 for 250 meg. is there something that prevents t-mobile
> from coming up with a similarly priced plan? since it will only work on
> 2g, they can seriously undercut at&t.
Well, unlike AT&T, T-Mo sells neither a metered internet plan, nor a la
carte (per KB/MB) data, so selling anything other than an unlimited plan
would probably require serious systemic changes in their billing system.
Not worth it for the miniscule number of customers this product would
bring to T-Mo.
Plus, since SIM cards are easily swapped between devices, any low-ball
iPad specific plan's SIM could easily be moved to other devices- even 3G
devices. There isn't a separate 3G APN. Any compatible 3G device will
get 3G service on any T-Mo data plan.
>> In addition,
>> the iPad only works on T-Mobile in EDGE mode, as it lacks T-Mo's
>> oddball AWS frequency. You'd have to really just want to spite AT&T
>> to be willing to
>> pay more to use a slower network. Ergo, anyone wanting to use an
>> iPad in the USA on a cellular network other than AT&T would be
>> better off saving the
>> $130, buying the non-3G model, and tethering the iPad via WiFi to an
>> existing WinMo or Symbian smartphone, or a "MyFi" device.
>> Particularly those who also use an iPod Touch, since they could kill
>> two birds with one dataplan.
>
> more to carry.
Huh? You think people are going to carry an iPad _instead_ of a phone?
Of course not, so they'll be carrying two devices anyway- this and a phone.
If they're carrying a smartphone that can act as a WiFi AP (WinMo, Symbian,
jailbroken iPhone) they don't need 3G, or a separate data plan, on the
iPad.- they can just connect to the smartphone's "MyFi."
> what if t-mo's plan is $9.99/mo? or even less? what if
> its like the sidekick plan at $1 day only when used (which is a little
> different than the sidekick plan)? or what if it's $5/mo add-on for
> existing voice customers? maybe they can score some new voice customers
> too.
What if, as I suspect, none of that happens? T-Mo has traditionally sold
data inexpensively, to compensate for a lack of a 3G network, but has
bent over backwards in the last year, since launching 3G, to rectify that
situation! In addition, T-Mo has steadfastly avoided selling data to
PAYG customers, with the exception of the Sidekick, which is probably a
demographics issue (Sidekick customers tend to be young and have little to
no credit history.)
Also, just like other carriers, T-Mo doesn't tier data plans by device
speed
(2G/3G)- that would open a huge kettle of worms when 2G phone users
suddenly want to know why they don't get a discount like iPad users do,
in addition to the potential "wandering SIM" issue- sign up for your
mythical $9.99 iPad plan and then move your iPad SIM into a 3G laptop
data card or smartphone. T-Mo would now have to put systemic guards in
place to prevent this. Not impossible, but again, why bother for a non-
existant demand? T-Mo USA reportedly has about 1,000,000 iPhones on
their system, and T-Mo doesn't give those customers any special rates for
being stuck at 2G- and there are plenty more potential iPhone defectors
to attract from AT&T by offering special deals than potential iPad users.
I think the iPad looks like a neat gadget, but it isn't going to sell in
iPod/iPhone quantities!
>> My guess is that T-Mo will not lift a finger to support this device,
since
>> the ability to disappoint customers with 2G-only service is too
great. If
>> someone manages to hack their SIM with scissors or somekind of adapter,
T-Mo
>> will take their money, but they won't be rushing out an obtaining
uSIMs in
>> anticipation of a stampede that isn't going to come.
>
> my guess is they're going to want to support it because of the strong
> dislike of at&t.
Again, if that were true, where is their "bring us your iPhone" campaign?
> 2g that works trumps 3g that doesn't.
True- but AT&T 2G works fine as well, without having to eschew 3G entirely.
>>> they can't compete against one another?
>>
>> In those countries with multiple partners, yes. In countries with one,
it's
>> not likely- again, while I fully expect this device to be successful
for a
>> tablet, it's just not going to sell in iPhone/iPod Touch volumes-
it's an
>> example of a solution looking for a problem- there isn't a pent up
demand of
>> people just waiting for the right tablet to come along, and it's too
high
>> priced to convert or cannibalize the eBook reader market, IMO. It's
likely
>> to be an outstanding selling "niche" device.
>
> seems i've heard that before. who is going to buy an overpriced mp3
> player, $399 for 5 gig (for the original ipod). who is going to buy a 4
> gig ipod mini for $249 when a 20 gig regular ipod is just $299. turned
> out to be the best selling ipod, only to be replaced with a *smaller*
> capacity nano that sold even *better*.
Even you can't believe a million people will be carrying a portfolio-
sized tablet everywhere they go 3-6 months from now, can you? I think
this thing will sell extremely well- _for a tablet_, and perhaps even
slightly dent the netbook market, but I suspect the majority will be sold
without 3G.
Ever use an iPhone on T-Mo? Surfing that "real web" with Safari over
EDGE isn't pretty. It's only tolerable on my WinMo phone since I stick
to WAP pages or use Opera Mini's proxied browser for surfing the "real
web"- it compresses webpages "up to 90%%", (but typically about 60%%, IME,)
at Opera's server which dramatically increases browsing speed.
>> In contrast, the iPad was displayed before the SIMs it uses were. If
AT&T
>> (or T-Mobile) was indeed transistioning to this new SIM anytime
within the
>> next few months, we'd probably have started seeing them in the supply
chain
>> already.
>
> they have three months to fill the supply chain. check back in april or
> may.
Hopefully they'll have the half-dozen or so uSIMs they'll need for the
onslaught by then... ;)
>>> all phones need appropriate apn settings for the respective carrier.
>>
>> Yes- but they don't poll the carrier for them.
>
> so what's t-mobile's configurator? granted, the user 'polls' and gets
> the data pushed to the phone, but the effect is the same, it's just not
> automatic.
No, T-Mo doesn't push any data settings into phones any longer (they used
to have an online form you filled in with phone make/model and your phone
number, and they SMS'd the proper settings in a spcial configuration
message) but since they launched 3G, on a non-standard frequency, they
are actively discouraging the use of non-T-Mo-branded equipment. Not
prohibiting it- just discouraging it. For example, they now charge the
higher smartphone data rate to all customers who add data to non-T-Mo
phones- even dumbphones. Only T-Mo-branded dumbphones can get the lower
dumbphone data plan. This policy makes it hard t believe they'll court
iPad users with lower rates- I suspect they'll be offered the "stanard"
data-only rate: $40/month.
Their "configurator" is now a web page that tells you to punch
"
wap.voicestream.com" into the APN screen on your phone, and if your
phone doesn't have such a screen, you should check out T-Mo's selection
of phones.
> at&t has demonstrated that they are incompetent lying buffoons. i don't
> know what the holdup is, but my guess is that they are petrified that
> their fragile network will crumble under the additional load. we know
> that tethering works since people have circumvented the blocks, so it's
> nothing more than an administrative restriction.
Of course, but it's one that virtually any other smartphone can circumvent,
because they don't need to receive a secret handshake from AT&T first.
>>> t-mobile is only too happy to support the iphone.
>>
>> Sure, but they don't push any iPhone-specific settings it. They
"support"
>> it like any other unlocked handset they don't sell: they provide
limited
>> tech support, but wash their hands of it if end-users can't manage to
>> configure it themselves.
>
> they need to push their apn info to it.
Regardless of what they "need" to do, the fact is that they don't do
anything of the sort.
They've never pushed settings to phone models they didn't sell- but back
when they
pushed data settings OTA, (that ended about a year ago) you could just
select a model similar to one of theirs (e.g. I could get settings for my
AT&T Nokia 3620 by selecting T-Mo's Nokia 3650.)
However, there is no "similar" model to an iPhone. You can send
configuration SMSes formatted for Nokias, Samsungs, or Motorolas to an
iPhone all day, and the iPhone
won't program, so iPhone users have always had to configure their data
settings
themselves.
>> Why would they distribute new SIMs to support a single non-phone
device with
>> a small potential user base? (The subset of iPad owners willing to
use it
>> on a 2G network for more money than AT&T charges?)
>
> because distributing a new sim costs them almost nothing and it's a
> very easy way to get new customers and additional revenue.
We'll see. I can't imagine anyone paying $130 extra for the 3G module so
they can run to a company that can only offer 2G service to it.
