The 380 has always been a bet that large numbers of passengers will
still want to travel between major hubs.
It does what the 747 did only better - well, cheaper per seat.
But if, as seems possible, the industry is about to go into one of its
cyclical slumps - recession, fuel prices, not even to think about
climate change issues and the risk of taxes or excise of fuel - 380s
flying around less than full would not be a happy prospect.
Alternatively a price war as airlines struggle to fly full.
So Boeing might be lucky again with the 787?
If so, they will claim strategic genius whereas as, like most business
decisions, it will have been at least 70%% luck.
Comments?

ken killcare.com> wrote in news:2fc4d939-1808-46cd-b3e5-
548d36be3d2a@v26g2000prm.googlegroups.com:

We live in interesting times, that's the short version.

A couple of years ago now, some big-ish wig from Boeing came to
speak to a group of our Executive MBA students. His position was
very much that Boeing and Airbus were at odds insofar as their
take on future business directions were concerned. Airbus has
bet on the 'conventional' hub and spoke approach, and the Boeing
line was that "the punters want to fly point to point without
stopovers and that you can only truly do that with a smaller
and more efficient airplane [sic]".

Of course, they would say that.

Astute observers will by now have noted that I get to eat my
own words WRT the A380. For quite some time my position on
the A380 was "Qantas ordered Concorde too, doesn't mean it's
gonna fly". I was actually surprised to see the A380 program
'fly', so to speak.

On Thu, 29 May 2008 02:38:48 -0700 (PDT), ken killcare.com>
wrote:

Thanks GB and Matt. Interesting insights. New aircraft really are a
great gamble - on the economic cycle as well as a view of the airline
market.
I would not be brave enough to forecast fuel prices except that I
think it is likely that they will come down substantially sometime
soon.
An A370 would be fun. I don't think anyone is buying the 340 these
days?
BTW Matt, I am surprised that the seat cost of the 380 is only
slightly less than the 747 with a full load.
I though that it would be quite a lot?

On 29 May 2008 23:10:49 +1000, GB kickindanuts.threefiddy.com>
wrote:

"GB" kickindanuts.threefiddy.com> wrote in message
news:zsydnSPXpurANqPVnZ2dnUVZ_tHinZ2d@posted.internode...

Boeing are structurally testing aquatic mammals?
PETA will have a field day...... :-)

On Thu, 29 May 2008 15:50:54 -0700 (PDT), ken killcare.com>
wrote:

On 29 May 2008 23:10:49 +1000, GB kickindanuts.threefiddy.com>
wrote:

Even Flight International has come out and declared that the Emperor
has no clothes.

"Over the course of the past year, Boeing has walked right up to the
delicate line that divides spin from plain dishonesty. As delays
stretched from a few weeks to at least 15 months, Boeing's repeatedly
revised predictions and forecasts begged questions about the veracity
of boastful public statements made sometimes weeks and in some cases
even hours before another major delay announcement."

See - Boeing's 787 spin machine reverses course