8/21/2008: Intel News Brief: Syria and Russia Getting Together:

Syria raised the prospect yesterday of having Russian missiles on its
soil, sparking fears of a new Cold War in the Middle East. President
Assad said as he arrived in Moscow to clinch a series of military
agreements: “We are ready to co-operate with Russia in any project
that can strengthen its security.”

The Syrian leader told Russian newspapers: “I think Russia really has
to think of the response it will make when it finds itself closed in a
circle.”

Mr Assad said that he would be discussing the deployment of Russian
missiles on his territory. The Syrians are also interested in buying
Russian weapons.

In return Moscow is expected to propose a revival of its Cold War era
naval base at the Syrian port of Tartus, which would give the Russian
Navy its first foothold in the Mediterranean for two decades. Damascus
and Moscow were close allies during the Cold War but the Kremlin’s
influence in the region waned after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Yesterday’s rapprochement raised the possibility that Moscow intends
to re-create a global anti-Western alliance with former Soviet bloc
allies.

Many in Israel fear that the Middle East could once again become a
theatre for the two great powers to exert their spheres of influence,
militarily and politically. And with Israel and the US providing
military backing to Georgia, Russia appears set to respond in kind by
supporting Syria.

Already, Israeli observers worry that the chaos in the Caucasus may
disrupt gas supplies to Europe and Turkey from the Caspian Sea region,
creating a greater energy reliance on Iran and its vast reserves. The
crisis could in turn allow Tehran to exploit splits in the
international community and use Russia as a backer to advance its
nuclear programme. Russia has wooed Syria in recent years, as it has
tried to increase its influence in the Middle East and increase arms
sales.

Syria and Israel recently confirmed they had been holding indirect
talks to reach a peace deal after decades of hostility. Part of
Syria’s motivation was to break the international isolation it has
suffered for its strategic alliance with Tehran. A closer alliance
with a resurgent Russia could afford Mr Assad a way out of any binding
commitment. Some Israeli analysts even fear that it could encourage
Syria to try to take back the Golan Heights, captured by Israel in
1967, by force.

The Georgia conflict sparked a mocking speech with Cold War rhetoric
by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, over the performance
of Israeli-trained Georgian troops. One of the Israeli military
advisers there was reserve Brigadier-General Gal Hirsch, who commanded
a division in Israel’s inconclusive war with Hezbollah in 2006, and
who resigned his commission afterwards.

“Gal Hirsch, who was defeated in Lebanon, went to Georgia and they too
lost because of him,” the Shia leader taunted. “Relying on Israeli
experts and weapons, Georgia learnt why the Israeli generals failed.

“What happened in Georgia is a message to all those the Americans are
seeking to entangle in dangerous adventures.”
Source: Morning Intel News Brief via Internal Company News Wire