> Bush's War in Georgia
>
> Will it be the Flyswatter or the Blunderbuss?
>
> By Mike Whitney
>
> "I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings and
> in cars. It's impossible to count them now. There's hardly a single
> building left undamaged." Lyudmila Ostayeva, resident of Tskhinvali,
> South Ossetia
>
>
> 11/08/08 "ICH" -- - Washington's bloody fingerprints are all over
> the invasion of South Ossetia. Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvili
> would never dream of launching a massive military attack unless he
> got explicit orders from his bosses at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. After
> all, Saakashvili owes his entire political career to American
> power-brokers and US intelligence agencies. If he disobeyed them,
> he'd be gone in a fortnight. Besides an operation like this takes
> months of planning and logistical support; especially if it's
> perfectly timed to coincide with the beginning of the Olympic games.
> (another petty neocon touch) That means Pentagon planners must have
> been working hand in hand with Georgian generals for months in
> advance. Nothing was left to chance.
>
> Another tell-tale sign of US complicity is the way President Bush
> has avoided ordering Georgian troops to withdraw from a province
> that has been under the protection of international peacekeepers.
> Remember how quickly Bush ordered Sharon to withdraw from his
> rampage in Jenin? Apparently it's different when the aggression
> serves US interests.
>
> Saakashvili has been working closely with the Bush administration
> ever since he replaced Eduard Shevardnadze as president in 2003.
> That's when US-backed NGOs and western intelligence agencies toppled
> the Shevardnadze regime in the so-called color-coded "Rose
> Revolution". Since then, Saakashvili has done everything that's been
> asked of him; he's built up the military and internal security
> apparatus, he's allowed US advisers to train and arm Georgian
> troops, he's applied for membership in NATO, and he's been a general
> nuisance to his Russian neighbors. Now, he has sent his army into
> battle ostensibly on Washington's orders. At least, that is how the
> Kremlin sees it. Vladimir Vasilyev, the Chairman of Russia's State
> Duma Security Committee, summed up the feelings of many Russians
> like this: "The further the situation unfolds, the more the world
> will understand that Georgia would never be able to do all this
> without America. In essence, the Americans have prepared the force,
> which destroys everything in South Ossetia, attacks civilians and
> hospitals."
>
> True. That's why Bush is flying Georgian troops back home from Iraq
> to join the fighting rather than pursuing peaceful alternatives.
> Bush still believes that political solutions will naturally arise
> through the use of force. Unfortunately, his record is rather
> spotty.
>
> But that still doesn't answer the larger question: Why would
> Saakashvili embark on such a pointless military adventure when he
> had no chance of winning? After all, Russia has 20 times the
> firepower and has been conducting military maneuvers anticipating
> this very scenario for months. Does Uncle Sam really want another
> war that bad or is the fighting in South Ossetia is just head-fake
> for a larger war that is brewing in the Straits of Hormuz?
>
> Mikhail Saakashvili is a western educated lawyer and a favorite of
> the neocons. He rose to power on a platform of anti-corruption and
> economic reform which emphasized free market solutions and
> privatization. Instead of raising the standard of living for the
> Georgian people, Saakashvili has been running up massive deficits to
> expand the over-bloated military. Saakashvili has made huge
> purchases of Israeli and US-made (offensive) weapon systems and has
> devoted more than "4.2%% of GDP (more than a quarter of all Georgian
> public income) to military hardware.
>
> The Chairman of Russia's State Duma Security Committee, Vladimir
> Vasiliyev, summed it up like this:
>
> "Georgia could have used the years of Saakashvili's presidency in
> different ways - to build up the economy, to develop the
> infrastructure, to solve social issues both in South Ossetia,
> Abkhazia and the whole state. Instead, the Georgian leadership with
> president Saakashvili undertook consistent steps to increase its
> military budget from US$30 million to $1 billion - Georgia was
> preparing for a military action." Naturally, Russia is worried about
> these developments and has brought the matter up repeatedly at the
> United Nations but to no avail.
>
> Israeli arms manufacturers have also been supplying Saakashvili with
> state-of-the-art weaponry. According to Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz:
>
> "In addition to the spy drones, Israel has also been supplying
> Georgia with infantry weapons and electronics for artillery systems,
> and has helped upgrade Soviet-designed Su-25 ground attack jets
> assembled in Georgia, according to Koba Liklikadze, an independent
> military expert in Tbilisi. Former Israeli generals also serve as
> advisers to the Georgian military." ("Following Russian pressure,
> Israel freezes defense sales to Georgia" Associated Press)
>
> The Israeli news source DebkaFile elaborates on the geopolitical
> implications of Israeli involvement in the Georgia's politics:
>
> "The conflict has been sparked by the race for control over the
> pipelines carrying oil and gas out of the Caspian region....The
> Russians may just bear with the pro-US Georgian president Mikhail
> Saakashvili's ambition to bring his country into NATO. But they draw
> a heavy line against his plans and those of Western oil companies,
> including Israeli firms, to route the oil routes from Azerbaijan and
> the gas lines from Turkmenistan, which transit Georgia, through
> Turkey instead of hooking them up to Russian pipelines.
>
> Jerusalem owns a strong interest in Caspian oil and gas pipelines
> reach the Turkish terminal port of Ceyhan, rather than the Russian
> network. Intense negotiations are afoot between Israel Turkey,
> Georgia, Turkmenistan and Azarbaijan for pipelines to reach Turkey
> and thence to Israel's oil terminal at Ashkelon and on to its Red
> Sea port of Eilat. From there, supertankers can carry the gas and
> oil to the Far East through the Indian Ocean." (Paul Joseph Watson,
> "US Attacks Russia Through Client State Georgia")
>
> The United States and Israel are both neck-deep in the "Great Game";
> the ongoing war for vital petroleum and natural gas supplies in
> Central Asia and the Caspian Basin. So far, Putin appears to have
> the upper-hand because of his alliances with his regional
> allies-under the Commonwealth of Independent States-and because most
> of the natural gas from Eurasia is pumped through Russian pipelines.
> An article in "Today's Zaman" gives a good snapshot of Russia's
> position vis a vis natural resources in the region:
>
> "As far as natural resources are concerned Russia's hand is very
> strong: It holds 6.6 percent of the worlds proven oil reserves and
> 26 percent of the world's gas reserves. In addition, it currently
> accounts for 12 percent of world oil and 21 of recent world gas
> production. In May 2007, Russia was the world's largest oil and gas
> producer.
>
> As for national champions, Putin has strengthened and prepared
> Gazprom (the state-controlled gas company), Transneft (oil pipeline
> monopoly) and Rosneft (the state-owned oil giant). That is why in
> 2006 Gazprom retained full ownership in the giant Shtokman gas field
> (7) and took a controlling stake in the Sakhalin-2 natural gas
> project. In June 2007, it took back BP's Kovytka gas field and now
> is behind Total's Kharyaga oil and gas field." ("Vladimir Putin's
> Energystan and the Caspian" Today's Zaman)
>
> Putin-the black belt Judo-master-has proved to be as adept at
> geopolitics as he is at "deal-making". He has collaborated with the
> Austrian government on a huge natural gas depot in Austria which
> will facilitate the transport of gas to southern Europe. He has
> joined forces with German industry to build an underwater pipeline
> through the Baltic to Germany (which could provide 80%% of Germany's
> gas requirements) He has selected France's Total to assist Gazprom
> in the development of the massive Shtokman gas field. And he is
> setting up pipeline corridors to provide gas to Turkey and the
> Balkans. Putin has very deliberately spread Russia's influence
> evenly throughout Europe with the intention of severing the
> Transatlantic Alliance and, eventually, loosening America's
> vice-like grip on the continent.
>
> Putin's overtures to Germany's Merkel and France's Sarkozy are
> calculated to weaken the resolve of Bush's neocon allies in the EU
> and put them in Russia's corner. Putin is also attracting
> considerable foreign investment to Russian markets and has adopted
> "a 'new model of cooperation' in the energy sector that would 'allow
> foreign partners to share in the economic benefits of the project,
> share the management, and take on a share of the industrial,
> commercial and financial risks'". (M K Bhadrakumar "Russia plays the
> Shtokman card", Asia Times) All of these are intended to strengthen
> ties between Europe and Russia and make it harder for the Bush
> administration to isolate Moscow.
>
> Putin has played his cards very wisely, which makes it look like the
> fighting in South Ossetia may be Washington's way of trying to win
> through military force what they could not achieve via the free
> market.
>
> On Saturday, President Bush issued this statement from Beijing: "We
> have urged an immediate halt to the violence and a stand-down by all
> troops. We call for an end to the Russian bombings and a return by
> the parties to the status quo of August 6th."
>
> That was it. Bush then quickly returned to the Olympic festivities.
> He was last spotted at a photo op with the US girls volleyball team
> jumping up and down on the beach-sand in his wingtips. The pretense
> that Bush is leading the country has seemingly been abandoned
> altogether. Cheney is in charge now.
>
> Meanwhile, Putin boarded a plane to Moscow as soon as he heard about
> the Georgian invasion and after angrily waving his finger in Bush's
> face. It's doubtful that the friendship between the two leaders will
> survive the present storm. America's gambit in the Caucasus has
> aroused the sleeping bear and put Russia on the warpath. There's no
> telling when the hostilities might end. The conflagration could
> sweep across the entire region. Currently, news agencies are
> reporting that Russian warplanes are pounding Georgia's military
> bases, airfields, and the Black sea port of Poti.
>
> According to Bill Van Auken on the World Socialist Web Site:
>
> "Much of the city (Tskhinvali) was reportedly in flames Friday. The
> regional parliament building had burned down, the university was on
> fire, and the town's main hospital had been rendered inoperative by
> the bombardment."
>
> Vesti radio reported that Georgian forces burned down a church in
> Tanara in South Ossetia where people were hiding, to the ground,
> with all the people inside. The Deputy Director of an information
> agency as an eye witness reported that fragments of cluster bombs of
> were found in Tskinvali. There have also been reports by a South
> Ossetian reservist that civilians who were hiding in basements were
> shot dead by Georgian soldiers.
>
> Wikipedia reports that, "Russian soldiers captured group of American
> mercenaries on territory of South Ossetia. Group was captured near
> of Zare village."
>
> An estimated 1,500 people have died in the onslaught and 30,000 more
> fled across the Russian border. Large swaths of the city have been
> reduced to rubble including the one hospital that was pounded by
> Georgia bombers. Georgia has cut off the water supply to the
> city.The Red Cross now anticipates a "humanitarian catastrophe" as a
> result of the fighting.
>
> "I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings, in
> cars," Lyudmila Ostayeva, 50, told the Associated Press after
> fleeing the city with her family to a village near the Russian
> border. "It's impossible to count them now. There is hardly a single
> building left undamaged."
>
> At least 15 Russia peacekeepers were killed in the initial fighting
> and 70 more were sent to hospital. Georgia's army stormed the South
> Ossetia capital, Tskhinvali, killing more than 1,000 fleeing
> civilians. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin told news
> agencies in an interview how the hostilities began:
>
> Russian peacekeepers "were killed by their own [Georgian] partners
> in the peacekeeping forces. There is a Russian battalion, an
> Ossetian battalion, and a Georgian battalion... and all of a sudden
> the Georgians, Georgian peacekeepers, begin shooting their Russian
> colleagues. This is of course a war crime. I do not rule out that
> the Hague and Strasbourg courts and institutions in other cities
> will be involved in investigating these crimes, and this inhuman
> drama that has been played out."
>
> According to South Ossetia's president, Eduard Kokoyti, Georgian
> troops had been taking part in NATO exercises in the region since
> the beginning of August. Kokoyti claims that there is a connection
> between the NATO's activities and the current violence.
>
> Clearly, no one was expecting Russia to react as quickly or as
> forcefully as they did. In a matter of hours Russian tanks and
> armored vehicles were streaming over the border while warplanes
> bombed targets throughout the south. The Bush-Saakashvili strategy
> unraveled in a matter of hours. The Georgia president is already
> calling for a cease-fire. He's had enough.
>
>
> Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has promised to spend $400
> million to rebuild parts of South Ossetia. Large shipments of food
> and medical supplies are already on the way.
>
> Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday:
>
> "The actions of Georgia have led to deaths - among them are Russian
> peacekeepers. The situation reached the point that Georgian
> peacekeepers have been shooting at Russian peacekeepers. Now women,
> children and old people are dying in South Ossetia - most of them
> are citizens of the Russian Federation. As the President of the
> Russian Federation, I am obligated to protect lives and the dignity
> of Russian citizens wherever they are. Those responsible for the
> deaths of our citizens will be punished."
>
> Indeed, but how will Medvedev bring the responsible people to
> justice; with tanks and fighter pilots or is there another way?
>
>
> PUTIN'S OPTIONS: Flyswatter or Blunderbuss?
>
> Sometimes war provides clarity. That's certainly true in this case.
> After this weekends fighting, everyone in the Russian political
> establishment knows that Washington is willing to sacrifice
> thousands of innocent civilians and plunge the entire region into
> chaos to achieve its geopolitical objectives. Bush could call the
> whole thing off right now; Putin and Medvedev know that. But that's
> not the game-plan. So, the two Russian leaders have to make some
> tough decisions that will end up costing lives. What choice do they
> have?
>
> Putin needs to carefully weigh his options. Then, on Monday, he
> should announce that Russia will sell all $50 billion of its Fannie
> Mae mortgage-backed bonds, all of it US dollar-backed assets, and
> will accept only rubles and euros in the future sale of Russian oil
> and natural gas. Then watch as the Dow Jones goes into a
> death-spiral. Why use a blunderbuss when a flyswatter will do just
> fine.
>
>