> Bush's War in Georgia
>
> Will it be the Flyswatter or the Blunderbuss?
>
> By Mike Whitney
>
> "I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings and in
> cars. It's impossible to count them now. There's hardly a single building
> left undamaged." Lyudmila Ostayeva, resident of Tskhinvali, South Ossetia
>
>
> 11/08/08 "ICH" -- - Washington's bloody fingerprints are all over the
> invasion of South Ossetia. Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvili would
> never dream of launching a massive military attack unless he got explicit
> orders from his bosses at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. After all, Saakashvili
> owes his entire political career to American power-brokers and US
> intelligence agencies. If he disobeyed them, he'd be gone in a fortnight.
> Besides an operation like this takes months of planning and logistical
> support; especially if it's perfectly timed to coincide with the beginning
> of the Olympic games. (another petty neocon touch) That means Pentagon
> planners must have been working hand in hand with Georgian generals for
> months in advance. Nothing was left to chance.
>
> Another tell-tale sign of US complicity is the way President Bush has
> avoided ordering Georgian troops to withdraw from a province that has been
> under the protection of international peacekeepers. Remember how quickly
> Bush ordered Sharon to withdraw from his rampage in Jenin? Apparently it's
> different when the aggression serves US interests.
>
> Saakashvili has been working closely with the Bush administration ever
> since he replaced Eduard Shevardnadze as president in 2003. That's when
> US-backed NGOs and western intelligence agencies toppled the Shevardnadze
> regime in the so-called color-coded "Rose Revolution". Since then,
> Saakashvili has done everything that's been asked of him; he's built up
> the military and internal security apparatus, he's allowed US advisers to
> train and arm Georgian troops, he's applied for membership in NATO, and
> he's been a general nuisance to his Russian neighbors. Now, he has sent
> his army into battle ostensibly on Washington's orders. At least, that is
> how the Kremlin sees it. Vladimir Vasilyev, the Chairman of Russia's State
> Duma Security Committee, summed up the feelings of many Russians like
> this: "The further the situation unfolds, the more the world will
> understand that Georgia would never be able to do all this without
> America. In essence, the Americans have prepared the force, which destroys
> everything in South Ossetia, attacks civilians and hospitals."
>
> True. That's why Bush is flying Georgian troops back home from Iraq to
> join the fighting rather than pursuing peaceful alternatives. Bush still
> believes that political solutions will naturally arise through the use of
> force. Unfortunately, his record is rather spotty.
>
> But that still doesn't answer the larger question: Why would Saakashvili
> embark on such a pointless military adventure when he had no chance of
> winning? After all, Russia has 20 times the firepower and has been
> conducting military maneuvers anticipating this very scenario for months.
> Does Uncle Sam really want another war that bad or is the fighting in
> South Ossetia is just head-fake for a larger war that is brewing in the
> Straits of Hormuz?
>
> Mikhail Saakashvili is a western educated lawyer and a favorite of the
> neocons. He rose to power on a platform of anti-corruption and economic
> reform which emphasized free market solutions and privatization. Instead
> of raising the standard of living for the Georgian people, Saakashvili has
> been running up massive deficits to expand the over-bloated military.
> Saakashvili has made huge purchases of Israeli and US-made (offensive)
> weapon systems and has devoted more than "4.2%% of GDP (more than a quarter
> of all Georgian public income) to military hardware.
>
> The Chairman of Russia's State Duma Security Committee, Vladimir
> Vasiliyev, summed it up like this:
>
> "Georgia could have used the years of Saakashvili's presidency in
> different ways - to build up the economy, to develop the infrastructure,
> to solve social issues both in South Ossetia, Abkhazia and the whole
> state. Instead, the Georgian leadership with president Saakashvili
> undertook consistent steps to increase its military budget from US$30
> million to $1 billion - Georgia was preparing for a military action."
> Naturally, Russia is worried about these developments and has brought the
> matter up repeatedly at the United Nations but to no avail.
>
> Israeli arms manufacturers have also been supplying Saakashvili with
> state-of-the-art weaponry. According to Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz:
>
> "In addition to the spy drones, Israel has also been supplying Georgia
> with infantry weapons and electronics for artillery systems, and has
> helped upgrade Soviet-designed Su-25 ground attack jets assembled in
> Georgia, according to Koba Liklikadze, an independent military expert in
> Tbilisi. Former Israeli generals also serve as advisers to the Georgian
> military." ("Following Russian pressure, Israel freezes defense sales to
> Georgia" Associated Press)
>
> The Israeli news source DebkaFile elaborates on the geopolitical
> implications of Israeli involvement in the Georgia's politics:
>
> "The conflict has been sparked by the race for control over the pipelines
> carrying oil and gas out of the Caspian region....The Russians may just
> bear with the pro-US Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili's ambition to
> bring his country into NATO. But they draw a heavy line against his plans
> and those of Western oil companies, including Israeli firms, to route the
> oil routes from Azerbaijan and the gas lines from Turkmenistan, which
> transit Georgia, through Turkey instead of hooking them up to Russian
> pipelines.
>
> Jerusalem owns a strong interest in Caspian oil and gas pipelines reach
> the Turkish terminal port of Ceyhan, rather than the Russian network.
> Intense negotiations are afoot between Israel Turkey, Georgia,
> Turkmenistan and Azarbaijan for pipelines to reach Turkey and thence to
> Israel's oil terminal at Ashkelon and on to its Red Sea port of Eilat.
> From there, supertankers can carry the gas and oil to the Far East through
> the Indian Ocean." (Paul Joseph Watson, "US Attacks Russia Through Client
> State Georgia")
>
> The United States and Israel are both neck-deep in the "Great Game"; the
> ongoing war for vital petroleum and natural gas supplies in Central Asia
> and the Caspian Basin. So far, Putin appears to have the upper-hand
> because of his alliances with his regional allies-under the Commonwealth
> of Independent States-and because most of the natural gas from Eurasia is
> pumped through Russian pipelines. An article in "Today's Zaman" gives a
> good snapshot of Russia's position vis a vis natural resources in the
> region:
>
> "As far as natural resources are concerned Russia's hand is very strong:
> It holds 6.6 percent of the worlds proven oil reserves and 26 percent of
> the world's gas reserves. In addition, it currently accounts for 12
> percent of world oil and 21 of recent world gas production. In May 2007,
> Russia was the world's largest oil and gas producer.
>
> As for national champions, Putin has strengthened and prepared Gazprom
> (the state-controlled gas company), Transneft (oil pipeline monopoly) and
> Rosneft (the state-owned oil giant). That is why in 2006 Gazprom retained
> full ownership in the giant Shtokman gas field (7) and took a controlling
> stake in the Sakhalin-2 natural gas project. In June 2007, it took back
> BP's Kovytka gas field and now is behind Total's Kharyaga oil and gas
> field." ("Vladimir Putin's Energystan and the Caspian" Today's Zaman)
>
> Putin-the black belt Judo-master-has proved to be as adept at geopolitics
> as he is at "deal-making". He has collaborated with the Austrian
> government on a huge natural gas depot in Austria which will facilitate
> the transport of gas to southern Europe. He has joined forces with German
> industry to build an underwater pipeline through the Baltic to Germany
> (which could provide 80%% of Germany's gas requirements) He has selected
> France's Total to assist Gazprom in the development of the massive
> Shtokman gas field. And he is setting up pipeline corridors to provide gas
> to Turkey and the Balkans. Putin has very deliberately spread Russia's
> influence evenly throughout Europe with the intention of severing the
> Transatlantic Alliance and, eventually, loosening America's vice-like grip
> on the continent.
>
> Putin's overtures to Germany's Merkel and France's Sarkozy are calculated
> to weaken the resolve of Bush's neocon allies in the EU and put them in
> Russia's corner. Putin is also attracting considerable foreign investment
> to Russian markets and has adopted "a 'new model of cooperation' in the
> energy sector that would 'allow foreign partners to share in the economic
> benefits of the project, share the management, and take on a share of the
> industrial, commercial and financial risks'". (M K Bhadrakumar "Russia
> plays the Shtokman card", Asia Times) All of these are intended to
> strengthen ties between Europe and Russia and make it harder for the Bush
> administration to isolate Moscow.
>
> Putin has played his cards very wisely, which makes it look like the
> fighting in South Ossetia may be Washington's way of trying to win through
> military force what they could not achieve via the free market.
>
> On Saturday, President Bush issued this statement from Beijing: "We have
> urged an immediate halt to the violence and a stand-down by all troops. We
> call for an end to the Russian bombings and a return by the parties to the
> status quo of August 6th."
>
> That was it. Bush then quickly returned to the Olympic festivities. He was
> last spotted at a photo op with the US girls volleyball team jumping up
> and down on the beach-sand in his wingtips. The pretense that Bush is
> leading the country has seemingly been abandoned altogether. Cheney is in
> charge now.
>
> Meanwhile, Putin boarded a plane to Moscow as soon as he heard about the
> Georgian invasion and after angrily waving his finger in Bush's face. It's
> doubtful that the friendship between the two leaders will survive the
> present storm. America's gambit in the Caucasus has aroused the sleeping
> bear and put Russia on the warpath. There's no telling when the
> hostilities might end. The conflagration could sweep across the entire
> region. Currently, news agencies are reporting that Russian warplanes are
> pounding Georgia's military bases, airfields, and the Black sea port of
> Poti.
>
> According to Bill Van Auken on the World Socialist Web Site:
>
> "Much of the city (Tskhinvali) was reportedly in flames Friday. The
> regional parliament building had burned down, the university was on fire,
> and the town's main hospital had been rendered inoperative by the
> bombardment."
>
> Vesti radio reported that Georgian forces burned down a church in Tanara
> in South Ossetia where people were hiding, to the ground, with all the
> people inside. The Deputy Director of an information agency as an eye
> witness reported that fragments of cluster bombs of were found in
> Tskinvali. There have also been reports by a South Ossetian reservist that
> civilians who were hiding in basements were shot dead by Georgian
> soldiers.
>
> Wikipedia reports that, "Russian soldiers captured group of American
> mercenaries on territory of South Ossetia. Group was captured near of Zare
> village."
>
> An estimated 1,500 people have died in the onslaught and 30,000 more fled
> across the Russian border. Large swaths of the city have been reduced to
> rubble including the one hospital that was pounded by Georgia bombers.
> Georgia has cut off the water supply to the city.The Red Cross now
> anticipates a "humanitarian catastrophe" as a result of the fighting.
>
> "I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings, in cars,"
> Lyudmila Ostayeva, 50, told the Associated Press after fleeing the city
> with her family to a village near the Russian border. "It's impossible to
> count them now. There is hardly a single building left undamaged."
>
> At least 15 Russia peacekeepers were killed in the initial fighting and 70
> more were sent to hospital. Georgia's army stormed the South Ossetia
> capital, Tskhinvali, killing more than 1,000 fleeing civilians. Russian
> Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin told news agencies in an interview
> how the hostilities began:
>
> Russian peacekeepers "were killed by their own [Georgian] partners in the
> peacekeeping forces. There is a Russian battalion, an Ossetian battalion,
> and a Georgian battalion... and all of a sudden the Georgians, Georgian
> peacekeepers, begin shooting their Russian colleagues. This is of course a
> war crime. I do not rule out that the Hague and Strasbourg courts and
> institutions in other cities will be involved in investigating these
> crimes, and this inhuman drama that has been played out."
>
> According to South Ossetia's president, Eduard Kokoyti, Georgian troops
> had been taking part in NATO exercises in the region since the beginning
> of August. Kokoyti claims that there is a connection between the NATO's
> activities and the current violence.
>
> Clearly, no one was expecting Russia to react as quickly or as forcefully
> as they did. In a matter of hours Russian tanks and armored vehicles were
> streaming over the border while warplanes bombed targets throughout the
> south. The Bush-Saakashvili strategy unraveled in a matter of hours. The
> Georgia president is already calling for a cease-fire. He's had enough.
>
>
> Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has promised to spend $400 million
> to rebuild parts of South Ossetia. Large shipments of food and medical
> supplies are already on the way.
>
> Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday:
>
> "The actions of Georgia have led to deaths - among them are Russian
> peacekeepers. The situation reached the point that Georgian peacekeepers
> have been shooting at Russian peacekeepers. Now women, children and old
> people are dying in South Ossetia - most of them are citizens of the
> Russian Federation. As the President of the Russian Federation, I am
> obligated to protect lives and the dignity of Russian citizens wherever
> they are. Those responsible for the deaths of our citizens will be
> punished."
>
> Indeed, but how will Medvedev bring the responsible people to justice;
> with tanks and fighter pilots or is there another way?
>
>
> PUTIN'S OPTIONS: Flyswatter or Blunderbuss?
>
> Sometimes war provides clarity. That's certainly true in this case. After
> this weekends fighting, everyone in the Russian political establishment
> knows that Washington is willing to sacrifice thousands of innocent
> civilians and plunge the entire region into chaos to achieve its
> geopolitical objectives. Bush could call the whole thing off right now;
> Putin and Medvedev know that. But that's not the game-plan. So, the two
> Russian leaders have to make some tough decisions that will end up costing
> lives. What choice do they have?
>
> Putin needs to carefully weigh his options. Then, on Monday, he should
> announce that Russia will sell all $50 billion of its Fannie Mae
> mortgage-backed bonds, all of it US dollar-backed assets, and will accept
> only rubles and euros in the future sale of Russian oil and natural gas.
> Then watch as the Dow Jones goes into a death-spiral. Why use a
> blunderbuss when a flyswatter will do just fine.
>
>