Bush's War in Georgia

Will it be the Flyswatter or the Blunderbuss?

By Mike Whitney

"I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings and in
cars. It's impossible to count them now. There's hardly a single building
left undamaged." Lyudmila Ostayeva, resident of Tskhinvali, South Ossetia

11/08/08 "ICH" -- - Washington's bloody fingerprints are all over the
invasion of South Ossetia. Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvili would never
dream of launching a massive military attack unless he got explicit orders
from his bosses at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. After all, Saakashvili owes his
entire political career to American power-brokers and US intelligence
agencies. If he disobeyed them, he'd be gone in a fortnight. Besides an
operation like this takes months of planning and logistical support;
especially if it's perfectly timed to coincide with the beginning of the
Olympic games. (another petty neocon touch) That means Pentagon planners
must have been working hand in hand with Georgian generals for months in
advance. Nothing was left to chance.

Another tell-tale sign of US complicity is the way President Bush has
avoided ordering Georgian troops to withdraw from a province that has been
under the protection of international peacekeepers. Remember how quickly
Bush ordered Sharon to withdraw from his rampage in Jenin? Apparently it's
different when the aggression serves US interests.

Saakashvili has been working closely with the Bush administration ever since
he replaced Eduard Shevardnadze as president in 2003. That's when US-backed
NGOs and western intelligence agencies toppled the Shevardnadze regime in
the so-called color-coded "Rose Revolution". Since then, Saakashvili has
done everything that's been asked of him; he's built up the military and
internal security apparatus, he's allowed US advisers to train and arm
Georgian troops, he's applied for membership in NATO, and he's been a
general nuisance to his Russian neighbors. Now, he has sent his army into
battle ostensibly on Washington's orders. At least, that is how the Kremlin
sees it. Vladimir Vasilyev, the Chairman of Russia's State Duma Security
Committee, summed up the feelings of many Russians like this: "The further
the situation unfolds, the more the world will understand that Georgia would
never be able to do all this without America. In essence, the Americans have
prepared the force, which destroys everything in South Ossetia, attacks
civilians and hospitals."

True. That's why Bush is flying Georgian troops back home from Iraq to join
the fighting rather than pursuing peaceful alternatives. Bush still believes
that political solutions will naturally arise through the use of force.
Unfortunately, his record is rather spotty.

But that still doesn't answer the larger question: Why would Saakashvili
embark on such a pointless military adventure when he had no chance of
winning? After all, Russia has 20 times the firepower and has been
conducting military maneuvers anticipating this very scenario for months.
Does Uncle Sam really want another war that bad or is the fighting in South
Ossetia is just head-fake for a larger war that is brewing in the Straits of
Hormuz?

Mikhail Saakashvili is a western educated lawyer and a favorite of the
neocons. He rose to power on a platform of anti-corruption and economic
reform which emphasized free market solutions and privatization. Instead of
raising the standard of living for the Georgian people, Saakashvili has been
running up massive deficits to expand the over-bloated military. Saakashvili
has made huge purchases of Israeli and US-made (offensive) weapon systems
and has devoted more than "4.2%% of GDP (more than a quarter of all Georgian
public income) to military hardware.

The Chairman of Russia's State Duma Security Committee, Vladimir Vasiliyev,
summed it up like this:

"Georgia could have used the years of Saakashvili's presidency in different
ways - to build up the economy, to develop the infrastructure, to solve
social issues both in South Ossetia, Abkhazia and the whole state. Instead,
the Georgian leadership with president Saakashvili undertook consistent
steps to increase its military budget from US$30 million to $1 billion -
Georgia was preparing for a military action." Naturally, Russia is worried
about these developments and has brought the matter up repeatedly at the
United Nations but to no avail.

Israeli arms manufacturers have also been supplying Saakashvili with
state-of-the-art weaponry. According to Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz:

"In addition to the spy drones, Israel has also been supplying Georgia with
infantry weapons and electronics for artillery systems, and has helped
upgrade Soviet-designed Su-25 ground attack jets assembled in Georgia,
according to Koba Liklikadze, an independent military expert in Tbilisi.
Former Israeli generals also serve as advisers to the Georgian military."
("Following Russian pressure, Israel freezes defense sales to Georgia"
Associated Press)

The Israeli news source DebkaFile elaborates on the geopolitical
implications of Israeli involvement in the Georgia's politics:

"The conflict has been sparked by the race for control over the pipelines
carrying oil and gas out of the Caspian region....The Russians may just bear
with the pro-US Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili's ambition to bring
his country into NATO. But they draw a heavy line against his plans and
those of Western oil companies, including Israeli firms, to route the oil
routes from Azerbaijan and the gas lines from Turkmenistan, which transit
Georgia, through Turkey instead of hooking them up to Russian pipelines.

Jerusalem owns a strong interest in Caspian oil and gas pipelines reach the
Turkish terminal port of Ceyhan, rather than the Russian network. Intense
negotiations are afoot between Israel Turkey, Georgia, Turkmenistan and
Azarbaijan for pipelines to reach Turkey and thence to Israel's oil terminal
at Ashkelon and on to its Red Sea port of Eilat. From there, supertankers
can carry the gas and oil to the Far East through the Indian Ocean." (Paul
Joseph Watson, "US Attacks Russia Through Client State Georgia")

The United States and Israel are both neck-deep in the "Great Game"; the
ongoing war for vital petroleum and natural gas supplies in Central Asia and
the Caspian Basin. So far, Putin appears to have the upper-hand because of
his alliances with his regional allies-under the Commonwealth of Independent
States-and because most of the natural gas from Eurasia is pumped through
Russian pipelines. An article in "Today's Zaman" gives a good snapshot of
Russia's position vis a vis natural resources in the region:

"As far as natural resources are concerned Russia's hand is very strong: It
holds 6.6 percent of the worlds proven oil reserves and 26 percent of the
world's gas reserves. In addition, it currently accounts for 12 percent of
world oil and 21 of recent world gas production. In May 2007, Russia was the
world's largest oil and gas producer.

As for national champions, Putin has strengthened and prepared Gazprom (the
state-controlled gas company), Transneft (oil pipeline monopoly) and Rosneft
(the state-owned oil giant). That is why in 2006 Gazprom retained full
ownership in the giant Shtokman gas field (7) and took a controlling stake
in the Sakhalin-2 natural gas project. In June 2007, it took back BP's
Kovytka gas field and now is behind Total's Kharyaga oil and gas field."
("Vladimir Putin's Energystan and the Caspian" Today's Zaman)

Putin-the black belt Judo-master-has proved to be as adept at geopolitics as
he is at "deal-making". He has collaborated with the Austrian government on
a huge natural gas depot in Austria which will facilitate the transport of
gas to southern Europe. He has joined forces with German industry to build
an underwater pipeline through the Baltic to Germany (which could provide
80%% of Germany's gas requirements) He has selected France's Total to assist
Gazprom in the development of the massive Shtokman gas field. And he is
setting up pipeline corridors to provide gas to Turkey and the Balkans.
Putin has very deliberately spread Russia's influence evenly throughout
Europe with the intention of severing the Transatlantic Alliance and,
eventually, loosening America's vice-like grip on the continent.

Putin's overtures to Germany's Merkel and France's Sarkozy are calculated to
weaken the resolve of Bush's neocon allies in the EU and put them in Russia's
corner. Putin is also attracting considerable foreign investment to Russian
markets and has adopted "a 'new model of cooperation' in the energy sector
that would 'allow foreign partners to share in the economic benefits of the
project, share the management, and take on a share of the industrial,
commercial and financial risks'". (M K Bhadrakumar "Russia plays the
Shtokman card", Asia Times) All of these are intended to strengthen ties
between Europe and Russia and make it harder for the Bush administration to
isolate Moscow.

Putin has played his cards very wisely, which makes it look like the
fighting in South Ossetia may be Washington's way of trying to win through
military force what they could not achieve via the free market.

On Saturday, President Bush issued this statement from Beijing: "We have
urged an immediate halt to the violence and a stand-down by all troops. We
call for an end to the Russian bombings and a return by the parties to the
status quo of August 6th."

That was it. Bush then quickly returned to the Olympic festivities. He was
last spotted at a photo op with the US girls volleyball team jumping up and
down on the beach-sand in his wingtips. The pretense that Bush is leading
the country has seemingly been abandoned altogether. Cheney is in charge
now.

Meanwhile, Putin boarded a plane to Moscow as soon as he heard about the
Georgian invasion and after angrily waving his finger in Bush's face. It's
doubtful that the friendship between the two leaders will survive the
present storm. America's gambit in the Caucasus has aroused the sleeping
bear and put Russia on the warpath. There's no telling when the hostilities
might end. The conflagration could sweep across the entire region.
Currently, news agencies are reporting that Russian warplanes are pounding
Georgia's military bases, airfields, and the Black sea port of Poti.

According to Bill Van Auken on the World Socialist Web Site:

"Much of the city (Tskhinvali) was reportedly in flames Friday. The regional
parliament building had burned down, the university was on fire, and the
town's main hospital had been rendered inoperative by the bombardment."

Vesti radio reported that Georgian forces burned down a church in Tanara in
South Ossetia where people were hiding, to the ground, with all the people
inside. The Deputy Director of an information agency as an eye witness
reported that fragments of cluster bombs of were found in Tskinvali. There
have also been reports by a South Ossetian reservist that civilians who were
hiding in basements were shot dead by Georgian soldiers.

Wikipedia reports that, "Russian soldiers captured group of American
mercenaries on territory of South Ossetia. Group was captured near of Zare
village."

An estimated 1,500 people have died in the onslaught and 30,000 more fled
across the Russian border. Large swaths of the city have been reduced to
rubble including the one hospital that was pounded by Georgia bombers.
Georgia has cut off the water supply to the city.The Red Cross now
anticipates a "humanitarian catastrophe" as a result of the fighting.

"I saw bodies lying on the streets, around ruined buildings, in cars,"
Lyudmila Ostayeva, 50, told the Associated Press after fleeing the city with
her family to a village near the Russian border. "It's impossible to count
them now. There is hardly a single building left undamaged."

At least 15 Russia peacekeepers were killed in the initial fighting and 70
more were sent to hospital. Georgia's army stormed the South Ossetia
capital, Tskhinvali, killing more than 1,000 fleeing civilians. Russian
Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin told news agencies in an interview
how the hostilities began:

Russian peacekeepers "were killed by their own [Georgian] partners in the
peacekeeping forces. There is a Russian battalion, an Ossetian battalion,
and a Georgian battalion... and all of a sudden the Georgians, Georgian
peacekeepers, begin shooting their Russian colleagues. This is of course a
war crime. I do not rule out that the Hague and Strasbourg courts and
institutions in other cities will be involved in investigating these crimes,
and this inhuman drama that has been played out."

According to South Ossetia's president, Eduard Kokoyti, Georgian troops had
been taking part in NATO exercises in the region since the beginning of
August. Kokoyti claims that there is a connection between the NATO's
activities and the current violence.

Clearly, no one was expecting Russia to react as quickly or as forcefully as
they did. In a matter of hours Russian tanks and armored vehicles were
streaming over the border while warplanes bombed targets throughout the
south. The Bush-Saakashvili strategy unraveled in a matter of hours. The
Georgia president is already calling for a cease-fire. He's had enough.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has promised to spend $400 million to
rebuild parts of South Ossetia. Large shipments of food and medical supplies
are already on the way.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Sunday:

"The actions of Georgia have led to deaths - among them are Russian
peacekeepers. The situation reached the point that Georgian peacekeepers
have been shooting at Russian peacekeepers. Now women, children and old
people are dying in South Ossetia - most of them are citizens of the Russian
Federation. As the President of the Russian Federation, I am obligated to
protect lives and the dignity of Russian citizens wherever they are. Those
responsible for the deaths of our citizens will be punished."

Indeed, but how will Medvedev bring the responsible people to justice; with
tanks and fighter pilots or is there another way?

PUTIN'S OPTIONS: Flyswatter or Blunderbuss?

Sometimes war provides clarity. That's certainly true in this case. After
this weekends fighting, everyone in the Russian political establishment
knows that Washington is willing to sacrifice thousands of innocent
civilians and plunge the entire region into chaos to achieve its
geopolitical objectives. Bush could call the whole thing off right now;
Putin and Medvedev know that. But that's not the game-plan. So, the two
Russian leaders have to make some tough decisions that will end up costing
lives. What choice do they have?

Putin needs to carefully weigh his options. Then, on Monday, he should
announce that Russia will sell all $50 billion of its Fannie Mae
mortgage-backed bonds, all of it US dollar-backed assets, and will accept
only rubles and euros in the future sale of Russian oil and natural gas.
Then watch as the Dow Jones goes into a death-spiral. Why use a blunderbuss
when a flyswatter will do just fine.