> On May 7, 7:15 pm, Bob Rudd verizon.net> wrote:
>

>> 3. Syesha Mercado - Wow, she appealed to the following demos: hot chick,
>> potential wardrobe malfunction, race, almost total sympathy etc.  She
>> played every card she had but her dad and she won the pot to the final
>> three.  Unfortunately, her voyage ends here unless the most
>> significantly stunning upset ever on AI occurs next week.  Guess what
>> though, if that happens, right now, I'd say she'd be 50-50 to win
>> against the remaining David due to "other David hatred" by their
>> respective fans.  I never thought she had Vonzell Solomon in her but I
>> got to give her mad props for how she negotiated the way to the final
>> three.

>
> Well, I think it was the participation of the African-Americans -- you
> would say in voting, I would say in ratings demos... But, however it
> happened, she's The Best of the Rest.
>
> She'd need the stunning upset of all time (you really think it's
> bigger than Nikki?? Sabol???) to get to the final, but I'd say that,
> if she got there, she'd be the favorite to win it, based on a
> legitimate vote.

> Again, this is where voting against the David still
> in it by the "other David hatred" you speak of would put her over the
> top.
>
> If she makes the final, I put her as a sacrificial lamb. Anyone who
> thinks the vote is legitimate, however, probably has to make her the
> _favorite_.

>

>> 2. David Cook - Had last night continued the trend of the past three
>> weeks, I was prepared to make the most drastic reversal/call that I've
>> ever made in the PR, going back to when I almost put Elliott Yamin over
>> Taylor Hicks with four weeks to go!  I was, very seriously, considering
>> either a tie for number 1 with Archuleta or a 250 to 500 baby gorilla
>> for Cook.  He had it in his grasp.  Add in Cowell's EW comment about "I
>> hope he wins," two weeks ago and you'd have needed glasses not to see
>> the politics and the demographic shift that was on the horizon.  

>
> Ahhhh, so _that_ was probably what got all the betting money on Cook.
> There _was_ a prospective change in the Champ Presumptive, then.

>
> I do think that Simon would want Cook to win, because of the potential
> Daddy Dearest ugliness. I do think they'll give him every chance. At
> the end of the day, though, I think it's the interests of the
> _television program_ (for Cook) vs. the interests of the _record
> company_ (for Archuleta, and probably long before season 7 was even
> being planned!).

>

>> However, "DC is back but Archuleta crushed the competition" (combining
>> Simon's comments in conclusion last night), well, let's just say that
>> David Cook might have left (for whatever reason(s), I won't speculate)
>> the opportunity of a lifetime slip right through his hands.  He still
>> leads on both coasts but Archuleta made inroads, especially in the
>> Southwest, Northwest and in Texas.  DC went from just having to beat
>> Archuleta to his now having to beat him while DA, again, has to lose;
>> although by no means the same spread that he did five weeks ago.

>
> Oh no... It's clear that Archuleta got a grip on the contract again
> -- but not nearly what he had even at the beginning of the season
> itself.
>

>> 1. David Archuleta - He lost 600 pounds as our gorilla in three short
>> weeks to 1250 last week.  He was about to lose a whole lot more this
>> week had the trends continued.  However, not only was the downward trend
>> halted, a passing Simon Cowell comment left many who we spoke, convinced
>> that the kid remains the one to beat.  However, he's still on a diet,
>> although instead of a gastric bypass sized weight loss, he's down to a
>> half ton gorilla.  Next week could see him shrink to almost nothing or
>> be declared the winner.  That's how crazy the politics and demographics
>> of AI7 have become!  Add in Brooke White's large group of crossover
>> supporters and Archuleta may have picked the right time for another
>> climb to the peak of AI victory.  People, from the major demos have been
>> talking since the show that "Archuleta is back!" and "Simon called it.
>> etc".  He's got a solid hold on the Heartland of America and last night
>> they, once again, started calling with both hands and two phones for
>> him, once again.  The tweens and grandmas are back on board, fully
>> committed.  If he wins, does Lloyd-Webber's "keep your eyes open"
>> comment deserve honorable mention for the win?

>
> Broken record time: It's all down to Daddy Dearest. If he's on board
> and allows the record company enough to let his son have the contract,
> it was all over months ago. If not...

>

>> Points to ponder - 1.) I keep coming back to peaking and/or
>> re-peaking at the right time.  Archuleta was attempting to lead wire to
>> wire which only Underwood has done (and Clay almost did until the
>> final).  That's a heavy responsibility for a kid.  He had to recover
>> last night and he did.  Similarly, Cook (whether he took the night off,
>> had a bad night, believed he was the presumptive champion, who knows?)
>> picked the worst possible night to let DA back in through the front
>> door.

>
> The one thing I can say is that I don't think Cook should've ever
> viewed HIMSELF as Champ Presumptive. Especially with how the entire
> field laid out. Cook may have been a plant, but he was a small daisy
> compared to the arboretum that several of the other contestants had
> put forward.

>

>> 2.) If there is anything to this TMZ thing, maybe the huge volume
>> of tween support has caused a final reassessment by TPTB.  Their
>> discretionary income is incredible and can buy a lot of d/l's on I-Tunes
>> etc. as well as concert tickets with mom and grandma.

>
> I think there's a lot to that TMZ thing -- I think the record company
> probably wanted Archuleta on the roster two or three years ago, if
> they could've gotten away with it.
>
> I think it's clear that the show has been rigged for Archuleta since
> they started planning out this season. Period. David Cook _was not
> supposed to happen_.

>

>> 3.) The tea leaves next week may well tell the outcome.

>
> In what way?

>

>> 4.) If Syesha makes the finals, and you can place a legal bet, take the odds for as much as you can lose
>> without losing sleep.  An eliminated David's fans will vote long and
>> heavy against the remaining David.  Add in, like Obama, that Syesha
>> would have the overwhelming Af-Am support at that time and AI's biggest
>> upset ever would be worth a decent odd's bet.

>
> Pinnacle has now pulled AI off the boards completely -- whether that's
> for suspicious stuff or just a matter of regular course around the
> time of airing, I can't say...
>
> Bodog, with the AI prop "Closed for Betting" (again, can't say whether
> that's because of any suspiciousness or whether it's just at the time
> of airing of the results) has Syesha at 15-1. Oh yeah... Take that
> bet for as much as you can lose or the limit on the bet.
>
> Mike
>