On May 7, 7:15Â pm, Bob Rudd
verizon.net> wrote:
> 3. Syesha Mercado - Wow, she appealed to the following demos: hot chick,
> potential wardrobe malfunction, race, almost total sympathy etc. Â She
> played every card she had but her dad and she won the pot to the final
> three. Â Unfortunately, her voyage ends here unless the most
> significantly stunning upset ever on AI occurs next week. Â Guess what
> though, if that happens, right now, I'd say she'd be 50-50 to win
> against the remaining David due to "other David hatred" by their
> respective fans. Â I never thought she had Vonzell Solomon in her but I
> got to give her mad props for how she negotiated the way to the final
> three.
Well, I think it was the participation of the African-Americans -- you
would say in voting, I would say in ratings demos... But, however it
happened, she's The Best of the Rest.
She'd need the stunning upset of all time (you really think it's
bigger than Nikki?? Sabol???) to get to the final, but I'd say that,
if she got there, she'd be the favorite to win it, based on a
legitimate vote. Again, this is where voting against the David still
in it by the "other David hatred" you speak of would put her over the
top.
If she makes the final, I put her as a sacrificial lamb. Anyone who
thinks the vote is legitimate, however, probably has to make her the
_favorite_.
> 2. David Cook - Had last night continued the trend of the past three
> weeks, I was prepared to make the most drastic reversal/call that I've
> ever made in the PR, going back to when I almost put Elliott Yamin over
> Taylor Hicks with four weeks to go! Â I was, very seriously, considering
> either a tie for number 1 with Archuleta or a 250 to 500 baby gorilla
> for Cook. Â He had it in his grasp. Â Add in Cowell's EW comment about "I
> hope he wins," two weeks ago and you'd have needed glasses not to see
> the politics and the demographic shift that was on the horizon. Â
Ahhhh, so _that_ was probably what got all the betting money on Cook.
There _was_ a prospective change in the Champ Presumptive, then.
I do think that Simon would want Cook to win, because of the potential
Daddy Dearest ugliness. I do think they'll give him every chance. At
the end of the day, though, I think it's the interests of the
_television program_ (for Cook) vs. the interests of the _record
company_ (for Archuleta, and probably long before season 7 was even
being planned!).
> However, "DC is back but Archuleta crushed the competition" (combining
> Simon's comments in conclusion last night), well, let's just say that
> David Cook might have left (for whatever reason(s), I won't speculate)
> the opportunity of a lifetime slip right through his hands. Â He still
> leads on both coasts but Archuleta made inroads, especially in the
> Southwest, Northwest and in Texas. Â DC went from just having to beat
> Archuleta to his now having to beat him while DA, again, has to lose;
> although by no means the same spread that he did five weeks ago.
Oh no... It's clear that Archuleta got a grip on the contract again
-- but not nearly what he had even at the beginning of the season
itself.
> 1. David Archuleta - He lost 600 pounds as our gorilla in three short
> weeks to 1250 last week. Â He was about to lose a whole lot more this
> week had the trends continued. Â However, not only was the downward trend
> halted, a passing Simon Cowell comment left many who we spoke, convinced
> that the kid remains the one to beat. Â However, he's still on a diet,
> although instead of a gastric bypass sized weight loss, he's down to a
> half ton gorilla. Â Next week could see him shrink to almost nothing or
> be declared the winner. Â That's how crazy the politics and demographics
> of AI7 have become! Â Add in Brooke White's large group of crossover
> supporters and Archuleta may have picked the right time for another
> climb to the peak of AI victory. Â People, from the major demos have been
> talking since the show that "Archuleta is back!" and "Simon called it.
> etc". Â He's got a solid hold on the Heartland of America and last night
> they, once again, started calling with both hands and two phones for
> him, once again. Â The tweens and grandmas are back on board, fully
> committed. Â If he wins, does Lloyd-Webber's "keep your eyes open"
> comment deserve honorable mention for the win?
Broken record time: It's all down to Daddy Dearest. If he's on board
and allows the record company enough to let his son have the contract,
it was all over months ago. If not...
> Points to ponder - 1.) I keep coming back to peaking and/or
> re-peaking at the right time. Â Archuleta was attempting to lead wire to
> wire which only Underwood has done (and Clay almost did until the
> final). Â That's a heavy responsibility for a kid. Â He had to recover
> last night and he did. Â Similarly, Cook (whether he took the night off,
> had a bad night, believed he was the presumptive champion, who knows?)
> picked the worst possible night to let DA back in through the front
> door.
The one thing I can say is that I don't think Cook should've ever
viewed HIMSELF as Champ Presumptive. Especially with how the entire
field laid out. Cook may have been a plant, but he was a small daisy
compared to the arboretum that several of the other contestants had
put forward.
>Â 2.) If there is anything to this TMZ thing, maybe the huge volume
> of tween support has caused a final reassessment by TPTB. Â Their
> discretionary income is incredible and can buy a lot of d/l's on I-Tunes
> etc. as well as concert tickets with mom and grandma.
I think there's a lot to that TMZ thing -- I think the record company
probably wanted Archuleta on the roster two or three years ago, if
they could've gotten away with it.
I think it's clear that the show has been rigged for Archuleta since
they started planning out this season. Period. David Cook _was not
supposed to happen_.
> 3.) The tea leaves next week may well tell the outcome.
In what way?
>Â 4.) If Syesha makes the finals, and you can place a legal bet, take the odds for as much as you can lose
> without losing sleep. Â An eliminated David's fans will vote long and
> heavy against the remaining David. Â Add in, like Obama, that Syesha
> would have the overwhelming Af-Am support at that time and AI's biggest
> upset ever would be worth a decent odd's bet.
Pinnacle has now pulled AI off the boards completely -- whether that's
for suspicious stuff or just a matter of regular course around the
time of airing, I can't say...
Bodog, with the AI prop "Closed for Betting" (again, can't say whether
that's because of any suspiciousness or whether it's just at the time
of airing of the results) has Syesha at 15-1. Oh yeah... Take that
bet for as much as you can lose or the limit on the bet.
Mike
