It's been pert near nine months or so since The Amazing Race left the
air. It must've been a chore for the TAR crew to wipe off the dust
from the clue boxes, destination mat, & Phil's collection of hair
musse. But I'm sure that they're glad to get one more paycheck and
free trip around the world.

Here's my general guidelines for predictin', subject to change at a
moment's notice;

#1. "Young Male Gym Rat" teams (formerly known as "Alpha Male" until
the politically correct squad banned that term as "offensive".)
generally do better percentage-wise of finishing in the top 3 than
male/female or female/female teams. These teams (YMGR for short) are
defined as all-male, in great physical shape, and generally below 30
although there are exceptions (two from TAR4, "Dude 'n Bro" & Reichen
'n Chip" who had contestants above 30, but were in great shape).

Yes, we all remember the "Cho boys" & "Greg 'n Brian" as those "YMGR"
teams who failed miserably. Their stupidity only highlights the
success of other "YMGR" like Tyler 'n James of TAR10 who were also
dumber than a box of rocks, made one mistake after another, and
cruised to victory.

#2. "Old Fogey" teams (formerly known as "Old Fogey" teams, the
politically correct squad as yet to rule on this) generally do poorer
percentage-wise in finishing the "top 3" than younger teams. "OF" are
generally over 55…period. Great physical conditioning and gender are
clearly secondary here.

Basically, if you're over 55 you can expect to get Philiminated pretty
darn quick. There are exceptions….ONE, Grampy from TAR12 comes to
mind. But pretty much the more gray, the more you stay in the back of
the pack.

#3. The first two rules are most in danger of being thwarted in the
first episode, after that things settle into a more predictable
pattern.

When Phil begins the race all the contestants run around like chickens
with their heads cut off. In this chaos a perfectly decent team will
sometimes finish last. Whether this panic and disorder stems from
idiocy, seeing Phil's man-boobs up close, or the thrill of screaming
at your partner in front of millions I cannot say.

#4. One team that has no business being in the top 3 will make the top
3.

Raise your hand if you predicted before the first episode of TAR10
that the "Blama Moms" would make the top 3. I thought so…oh, for those
smarty pants that did raise their hands you have my permission to go
to the bathroom.

I usually pick one team that I think has a decent, but not great
chance of making it...okay, I flip a coin.

Let's get to the teams:

Aja ‘n Ty
First off, whad’ up with all the names beginning with “A”…gotta be a
TAR record…anyone keeping track?

Okay, they’re young, look to be in good shape, and a “long distance”
couple. This actually bodes well if you remember Kris ‘n Jon (TAR6).
Long distance couples are usually still “courting” each other so they
tend to get along better...I wonder why?...oh yeah! So with that in
mind;

Prediction: Top 3

Andrew ‘n Dan
They look sorta like young, male gym rats…but they ain’t. A bit
“cheeky” and the air of overconfidence indicate to me that they could
be Philiminated before the race begins. But they are young and youth
has its advantages, so;

Prediction: Top 3

Marisa ‘n Brooke or BQ 2: Electric Boogaloo
‘th hell? Did Phil slam down his newly emptied Foster’s can at the pre-
production meeting and demand two more blond hotties that look like
sisters, but are not? I still say they were separated at birth or were
previous contestants who had some minor plastic surgery and name
changes. Yea, they look like they're in good shape. Yea, they may be
smart. Yea, I'm a no good dirty politically incorrect pig for thinking
that since no other all-female team has ever won that they don't stand
a chance. Well, I do think they stand a chance, just not as good a
chance as four other teams do.

Prediction: 5th

Mark ‘n Bill
You gotta be kidding me. They look like they got lost at a Banana
Republic. “Mark climbed a volcano.”…yea right, the one kids make at
science fairs. Perhaps they'll sweep into the top 3 without breaking
a sweat, but it's more likely that they'll screw something up real
basic...as in reading the map upside down and wind up in "outlaw"
territory. Being sold for sheep will not impress the neighbors back
home.

Prediction: 9th

Anita ‘n Arthur or The Grateful Dead
I could be wrong, but I think it would be a good idea if these two
rehearsed their “Philimated” speech right before the race. The only
thing that'll save 'em at least during the first leg of the race is
the disconcerting pattern of one team's stupidity which is usually who
gets "Philiminated" first.

Prediction: 10th

Terence ‘n Sarah
I don’t know if it’s Sarah’s uber-trendy, yet still blah-zay glasses
or the name “Terence” without “Stamp” after it that gives me the
impression these two aren’t exactly world beaters. I think it's
Terence’s “faux-hawk” and profession of Real Estate to “pay the bills”
as opposed to most Real Estate agents who make a good living off of
the profession that’ll sink these two. Perhaps after a massive
arguement, followed by crying on Phil's shoulder on the mat, these two
will enjoy a happy 4 month marriage...

Prediction: 8th

Toni ‘n Dallas
I met a guy named Dallas once…he was from Dallas, too. He dressed like
a bum, yet he drove a brand-new Lincoln, had a girlfriend way too hot
for his looks, and his twenties kept rolling up…I never found out what
he did for a living…

Anyhoo, mother/son combos are rare in TAR and they succeed even less.
And while they could be hogtied 'n blindfolded and still beat "The
Grateful Dead" in a footrace, one team has to go down first, so why
not these two.

Prediction: 1st to Go, last to know.

Nick ‘n Starr
Odds on favorite to be the contestant “everyone loves to hate” if only
for the double r in her name. Having said that, they do have all the
looks of a team storming into the finals if they weren’t brother/
sister…perhaps if they kindle the kind of sexual tension Blake ‘n
Pa….no, I will not go there again!

Prediction: 4th...just out of the money.

Kelly ‘n Christy
“Non-descript” seems to be the most prominent feature about these two.
Perhaps, unlike most TAR contestants, they've actually seen an episode
or two of "The Amazing Race"? More likely they got it confused with
another CBS show where contestants sit around the jungle or beach
watching each others clothes fall off and whisper who they
"haaaaaaate"....funny, I just can't remember the name of that
show...oh yeah, "CSI: Miami"!

Prediction: 6th

Ken ‘n Tina
Hey, a “Ken”…finally Phil ‘n crew have picked a real man for this race…
whaddya mean it’s not ME??!!

Although their bio has disaster written all over it, Ken can pack Tina
over his shoulder and carry her faster than she can run I’ll bet. And
I’ll bet that’s happened plenty of times in their failed marriage.

The good news is that they fit the description of a team that probably
shouldn't make it AND might be a team everyone loves to hate, which as
we all know is the reason why "TAR" is soooo popular!

Prediction: Top 3

Anthony ‘n Stephanie
Whadda bio, I can see the sparks flying even before Phil drops his
hand.

Prediction: 7th

Yep, another season awaits. I cannot promise this time that I'll post
up some "after race" observations as in times past. You can only do
this for so long and it's likely I'll take the "BCS" option 'n wait
'till a few episodes have past so I can actually keep track of the
teams. Heck, during "The Amazing Race All Star Season (or TAR-ASS) I
kept forgetting that Uchenna 'n Joyce were in the race at all until
the pit stop.

See you at the races!