Shawn Lambe wrote:

From the Buffalo NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
934 AM EST SAT DEC 2 2006

.UPDATE...

AFTER THE PLETHORA OF DRAMATIC WX OF THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS...WE
ARE NOW RESTRICTED TO A MORE FAMILIAR CONCERN...LAKE EFFECT...AND
THIS WILL BE OUR LOT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

DECENT MULTILAKE BAND HAS DEVELOPED THE LAST FEW HOURS FROM
HURON...ON ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND TORONTO AREA...AND ON ACROSS FULL
LENGTH OF LK ONTARIO INTO NRN OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY HAS ONLY
BEEN SNOW FOR A FEW HOURS AND HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
DRIFT...SO ACCUMS MINOR SO FAR. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT WE MAY
NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING...BUT A COUPLE OF CAVEATS INCLUDE
INCREASING SHEAR AND DRYING...ALREADY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE SHOTS
WHICH SHOW CLEARING WORKING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...SO WILL
MAINTAIN ADVISORY FOR NOW.

LITTLE HAPPENING OFF ERIE...AND WITH MORE DRYING AND INCREASING
SHEAR DO NOT EXPECT MUCH...WILL LOWER POPS TO CHC AND DROP ACCUMS.

DID NOT CHANGE ANYTHING FURTHER ALTHOUGH EARLY LOOK WOULD SUGGEST
LESS POTENTIAL FOR ANY ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS SLIGHT
WARMING AND RIDGING MOVES IN. THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED WITH NEXT
TROF AS IT APPROACHES SUN AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MORE ON THAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 353 AM EST SAT DEC 2 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL DISRUPT THE
LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...DUE BOTH TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND A PERIOD OF 850MB THERMAL RIDGING AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.
UNIFORM BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A RETURN OF COLDER AIR WILL REFORM
LAKE SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT THIS TIME WILL BE DIRECTED MORE
TOWARD THE POPULOUS AREAS OF BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. WILL KEEP TABS
ON THIS FOR POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT WATCH FOR THESE AREAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

WE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ENSURE THAT COLD AIR REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF
COLD AIR OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ACTIVITY WHICH WILL BE MOST LIKELY AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
TIME THE MOVEMENT OF THESE SHORT WAVES, IT LOOK AS THOUGH WE CAN
EXPECT ONE WAVE TO AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
TELL THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY ACTIVITY, BUT WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THIS TIMEFRAME CLOSELY.

AVIATION...

BRISK WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT DIMINISH A BIT INTO THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE AT THE TAF SITES. ANY LAKE EFFECT SHOULD BE OUTSIDE
OF THE TAF SITES WHICH SHOULD ALL REMAIN VFR ASIDE FROM SOME
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS.

MARINE...

WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE THIS MORNING...THEREFORE WILL
LOWER TO GALES THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EAST PORTION OF THE LAKE. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR LAKE ERIE.

HYDROLOGY...

RIVERS AND CREEKS ROSE MARKEDLY FOLLOWING THE TWO INCH RAINFALL OF
THURS NT AND FRIDAY. SEVERAL BUF AREA CREEKS BRIEFLY REACHED FLOOD
STAGE FRI EVENING BUT ARE DROPPING. SLOWER RISERS SUCH AS
TONAWANDA...ELLICOTT...BLACK AND OATKA CREEKS WILL RUN NEAR BANKFUL
TODAY BUT SHOULD CREST JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE...THEY WILL BE
MONITORED. ALLEGHENY AND BLACK RIVERS WILL BE HIGH BUT NOT FLOOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR NYZ006>008 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LEZ020-040-041-061 UNTIL 7 PM
SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING FOR LOZ042-062 UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING FOR LOZ043>045-063>065 UNTIL 3 PM SATURDAY.