Re: wildly improbable events
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Re: wildly improbable events         

Group: alt.philosophy · Group Profile
Author: John Larkin
Date: Aug 23, 2008 22:56

On Sat, 23 Aug 2008 22:14:04 -0700 (PDT), Immortalist
yahoo.com> wrote:
>On Aug 23, 1:13 pm, John Larkin
>highNOTlandTHIStechnologyPART.com> wrote:
>> We recently designed an 8-channel complex waveform generator. Each
>> output stage is composed of a DAC, a lowpass filter, an output
>> amplifier, a test relay, and an output connector. It's this one:
>>
>> http://www.highlandtechnology.com/DSS/V346DS.html
>>
>> You can see the gold output connectors, and the relays are hiding just
>> behind the front panel.
>>
>> The harmonic distortion seemed a bit high, in the -40 dBc range at 32
>> MHz and max level output. We were poking around with a spectrum
>> analyzer and happened to do a 0-3 GHz sweep and lo, a big line at
>> about 1 GHz. Something's oscillating!
>>
>> Cut to the bottom line: the eight output amps, 1.5 GHz current-mode
>> opamps, are individually stable, but oscillate together. Futzing with
>> some amps may affect the outputs of others, several channels away. And
>> the ensemble oscillations have multiple stable modes, including the
>> occasional "off."
>>
>> What's happening is that the front panel is electromagnetically
>> resonating in a fundamental violin-string mode (peak swing in the
>> middle) at about 1 GHz, and couples pretty well into all the output
>> stages; no doubt the relays are helping. A few well-placed capacitors
>> fix the problem. It took a while to figure this out.
>>
>> So the observation is: when something goes wrong, there are a number
>> of likely causes. Here, they were channel-channel trace couplings, Vcc
>> coupling, amplifier loop stability, pad-plane parasitic capacitance,
>> plain rotten opamps, stuff like that. But a complex system has many
>> possible, convoluted causalities other than the obvious ones. Suppose
>> there are a billion possible interactions, not unreasonable for a
>> system with hundreds of themselves-complex parts, all close and
>> well-coupled and interacting at frequencies like this. Suppose most of
>> those failure modes [1] are wildly improbable, like one chance in a
>> billion of ever happening.
>>
>> 1e9 * 1e-9 = 1
>>
>> The final solution was wildly improbable. If suggested as a cause, one
>> would be tempted to say "no, that's just too bizarre." It was probable
>> that the actual problem *was* wildly improbable.
>>
>> This sort of thing happens all the time in our business, in hardware
>> and software. Insanely unlikely insanely complex things happen,
>> because there are potentially so many of them. That makes it fun to
>> track them down.
>>
>> John
>
>The way you describe the problem made me think of "counter-intuitive
>network logic" but the feedback stuff has probably more to do with
>Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions...

Yes. We have eight coupled nonlinear oscillators with resonant widgets
galore. It has all sorts of modes. Of course it's supposed to be an
arbitrary waveform generator, and not just lay there, so whatever
terrible states are possible, it's going to find them.

At low frequencies, the em couplings are much weaker, so life is
simpler.

Electronics is fun.
>
>Sensitive Dependence on Initial Conditions
>http://www.schuelers.com/ChaosPsyche/part_1_14.htm
>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect
>http://everything2.com/index.pl?node_id=861246
>http://www.perkel.com/nerd/butterflyeffect.htm
>
>Network logic is counterintuitive. Say you need to lay a telephone
>cable that will connect a bunch of cities; let's make that three for
>illustration: Kansas City, San Diego, and Seattle. The total length of
>the lines connecting those three cities is 3,000 miles. Common sense
>says that if you add a fourth city to your telephone network, the
>total length of your cable will have to increase. But that's not how
>network logic works. By adding a fourth city as a hub (let's make that
>Salt Lake City) and running the lines from each of the three cities
>through Salt Lake City, we can decrease the total mileage of cable to
>2,850 or 5 percent less than the original 3,000 miles. Therefore the
>total unraveled length of a network can be shortened by adding nodes
>to it! Yet there is a limit to this effect. Frank Hwang and Ding Zhu
>Du, working at Bell Laboratories in 1990, proved that the best savings
>a system might enjoy from introducing new points into a network would
>peak at about 13 percent. More is different.
>
>On the other hand, in 1968 Dietrich Braess, a German operations
>researcher, discovered that adding routes to an already congested
>network will only slow it down. Now called Braess's Paradox,
>scientists have found many examples of how adding capacity to a
>crowded network reduces its overall production. In the late 1960s the
>city planners of Stuttgart tried to ease downtown traffic by adding a
>street. When they did, traffic got worse; then they blocked it off and
>traffic improved. In 1992, New York City closed congested 42nd Street
>on Earth Day, fearing the worst, but traffic actually improved that
>day.
>
>Then again, in 1990, three scientists working on networks of brain
>neurons reported that increasing the gain-the responsivity-of
>individual neurons did not increase their individual signal detection
>performance, but it did increase the performance of the whole network
>to detect signals.
>
>http://www.kk.org/outofcontrol/ch2-g.html
>
>The prime variable Kauffman played with was the connectivity of the
>network. In a sparsely connected network, each node would on average
>only connect to one other node, or less. In a richly connected
>network, each node would link to ten or a hundred or a thousand or a
>million other nodes. In theory the limit to the number of connections
>per node is simply the total number of nodes, minus one. A million-
>headed network could have a million-minus-one connections at each
>node; every node is connected to every other node. To continue our
>rough analogy, every employee of GM could be directly linked to all
>749,999 other employees of GM.
>
>As Kauffman varied this connectivity parameter in his generic
>networks, he discovered something that would not surprise the CEO of
>GM. A system where few agents influenced other agents was not very
>adaptable. The soup of connections was too thin to transmit an
>innovation. The system would fail to evolve. As Kauffman increased the
>average number of links between nodes, the system became more
>resilient, "bouncing back" when perturbed. The system could maintain
>stability while the environment changed. It would evolve. The
>completely unexpected finding was that beyond a certain level of
>linking density, continued connectivity would only decrease the
>adaptability of the system as a whole.
>
>Kauffman graphed this effect as a hill. The top of the hill was
>optimal flexibility to change. One low side of the hill was a sparsely
>connected system: flat-footed and stagnant. The other low side was an
>overly connected system: a frozen grid-lock of a thousand mutual
>pulls. So many conflicting influences came to bear on one node that
>whole sections of the system sank into rigid paralysis. Kauffman
>called this second extreme a "complexity catastrophe." Much to
>everyone's surprise, you could have too much connectivity. In the long
>run, an overly linked system was as debilitating as a mob of
>uncoordinated loners.
>
>Somewhere in the middle was a peak of just-right connectivity that
>gave the network its maximal nimbleness. Kauffman found this
>measurable "Goldilocks'" point in his model networks. His colleagues
>had trouble believing his maximal value at first because it seemed
>counterintuitive at the time. The optimal connectivity for the
>distilled systems Kauffman studied was very low, "somewhere in the
>single digits." Large networks with thousands of members adapted best
>with less than ten connections per member. Some nets peaked at less
>than two connections on average per node! A massively parallel system
>did not need to be heavily connected in order to adapt. Minimal
>average connection, done widely, was enough.
>
>Kauffman's second unexpected finding was that this low optimal value
>didn't seem to fluctuate much, no matter how many members comprised a
>specific network. In other words, as more members were added to the
>network, it didn't pay (in terms of systemwide adaptability) to
>increase the number of links to each node. To evolve most rapidly, add
>members but don't increase average link rates. This result confirmed
>what Craig Reynolds had found in his synthetic flocks: you could load
>a flock up with more and more members without having to reconfigure
>its structure.
>
>Kauffman found that at the low end, with less than two connections per
>agent or organism, the whole system wasn't nimble enough to keep up
>with change. If the community of agents lacked sufficient internal
>communication, it could not solve a problem as a group. More exactly,
>they fell into isolated patches of cooperative feedback but didn't
>interact with each other.
>
>At the ideal number of connections, the ideal amount of information
>flowed between agents, and the system as a whole found the optimal
>solutions consistently. If their environment was changing rapidly,
>this meant that the network remained stable-persisting as a whole over
>time.
>
>Kauffman's Law states that above a certain point, increasing the
>richness of connections between agents freezes adaptation. Nothing
>gets done because too many actions hinge on too many other
>contradictory actions. In the landscape metaphor, ultra-connectance
>produces ultra-ruggedness, making any move a likely fall off a peak of
>adaptation into a valley of nonadaptation. Another way of putting it,
>too many agents have a say in each other's work, and bureaucratic
>rigor mortis sets in. Adaptability conks out into grid-lock. For a
>contemporary culture primed to the virtues of connecting up, this low
>ceiling of connectivity comes as unexpected news.
>
>We postmodern communication addicts might want to pay attention to
>this. In our networked society we are pumping up both the total number
>of people connected (in 1993, the global network of networks was
>expanding at the rate of 15 percent additional users per month!), and
>the number of people and places to whom each member is connected.
>Faxes, phones, direct junk mail, and large cross-referenced data bases
>in business and government in effect increase the number of links
>between each person. Neither expansion particularly increases the
>adaptability of our system (society) as a whole.
>
>http://www.kk.org/outofcontrol/ch20-d.html
>
>>
>> [1] "failure mode" being a subjective thing. I think a 1 GHz
>> oscillation is a failure because I don't want one. For all I know, the
>> circuit may be proud of itself for pulling this off.

Coincidence: I'm about halfway through reading Kauffman's "At Home in
the Universe." The theme is that our universe is self-orginizing and
specifically that chemistry is prone to autocatalytic reactions that
pretty much make life and DNA inevitable. I believe in evolution after
a fashion, but I've always been skeptical that DNA and its supporting
systems could spring up on its own out of inorganic muck. I'll keep
reading.

It's not just bad improbable events that keep popping up; good ones
can happen, too, but less often of course. Which is how circuits get
designed.

John
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