Re: wildly improbable events
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Re: wildly improbable events         

Group: alt.philosophy · Group Profile
Author: Bill Ward
Date: Aug 23, 2008 15:05

On Sat, 23 Aug 2008 13:13:21 -0700, John Larkin wrote:
>
>
> We recently designed an 8-channel complex waveform generator. Each output
> stage is composed of a DAC, a lowpass filter, an output amplifier, a test
> relay, and an output connector. It's this one:
>
> http://www.highlandtechnology.com/DSS/V346DS.html
>
> You can see the gold output connectors, and the relays are hiding just
> behind the front panel.
>
> The harmonic distortion seemed a bit high, in the -40 dBc range at 32 MHz
> and max level output. We were poking around with a spectrum analyzer and
> happened to do a 0-3 GHz sweep and lo, a big line at about 1 GHz.
> Something's oscillating!
>
> Cut to the bottom line: the eight output amps, 1.5 GHz current-mode
> opamps, are individually stable, but oscillate together. Futzing with some
> amps may affect the outputs of others, several channels away. And the
> ensemble oscillations have multiple stable modes, including the occasional
> "off."
>
> What's happening is that the front panel is electromagnetically resonating
> in a fundamental violin-string mode (peak swing in the middle) at about 1
> GHz, and couples pretty well into all the output stages; no doubt the
> relays are helping. A few well-placed capacitors fix the problem. It took
> a while to figure this out.
>
> So the observation is: when something goes wrong, there are a number of
> likely causes. Here, they were channel-channel trace couplings, Vcc
> coupling, amplifier loop stability, pad-plane parasitic capacitance, plain
> rotten opamps, stuff like that. But a complex system has many possible,
> convoluted causalities other than the obvious ones. Suppose there are a
> billion possible interactions, not unreasonable for a system with hundreds
> of themselves-complex parts, all close and well-coupled and interacting at
> frequencies like this. Suppose most of those failure modes [1] are wildly
> improbable, like one chance in a billion of ever happening.
>
> 1e9 * 1e-9 = 1
>
> The final solution was wildly improbable. If suggested as a cause, one
> would be tempted to say "no, that's just too bizarre." It was probable
> that the actual problem *was* wildly improbable.
>
> This sort of thing happens all the time in our business, in hardware and
> software. Insanely unlikely insanely complex things happen, because there
> are potentially so many of them. That makes it fun to track them down.
>
> John
>
>
> [1] "failure mode" being a subjective thing. I think a 1 GHz oscillation
> is a failure because I don't want one. For all I know, the circuit may be
> proud of itself for pulling this off.

I once was responsible for designing an audio augmentation system for the
Alaska court system. It amplified signals from several mikes near the
judge, clerk, attorneys, bailiff, etc, and fed the signals to individual
amps and equalizing filters. They were then combined to drive a
multiple speaker system so the rest of the court could hear. We carefully
designed around the obvious shielding and feedback problems, and came up
with a well tested prototype that everybody liked and signed off on.

When the first production unit was installed in one of the biggest
courtrooms, we got a panicky call because soap operas were coming in loud
and clear over the judges comments, to his displeasure.

This surprised us because it had passed our EMI tests with flying colors.
When we sent techs to investigate, they found >>2V/m of TV signal at
the clerks (master unit) location, directly in front of the curved bench.
It turned out the bench had hidden steel armor plate to protect the judge
from dissatisfied participants, and the TV station was about a mile away,
directly in front of the bench. The plate was acting as a cylindrical
reflector focused on the clerk, and boosting the EMI way beyond anything
we had designed or tested for.

We added enough internal shielding to brute-force our way through, but
always asked to see the intended unit location in the remaining
installations. The problem never occurred again to my knowledge.

The event wasn't as much complex as it was unexpected, but it's another
example of the puzzle-solving nature of R&D.
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