On May 14, 6:01 am, tadchem
comcast.net> wrote:> On May 14, 7:26 am, Sanny
hotmail.com> wrote:
>>> In china earthquake killed 12,000 people. Why Scientists with fast
>> computers unable to predict the EarthQuake?
>
> For the same reason that scientists have not been able to predict most
> other earthquakes, anywhere at any time. The data does not exist.
> Computers (no matter how fast they are) cannot process extrapolations
> from data they have not been provided.
>
> Earthquakes occur for a very simple physical reason: the local
> stresses exceed the elastic limits of the materials.
>
> To "predict" earthquakes, one must be able to predict *when* the
> stresses will exceed the local elastic limits at any point. This
> requires a four-dimensional map of the stresses and their time
> variations be superimposed on a three-dimensional map of the local
> geology.
>
> The situation is analogous to cloud formation: we know exactly why
> clouds form but we don't know enough to be able to tell exactly where
> or when a cloud will form, what it will be like, how long it will
> last, etc.
>
>> I think the vibration of Earth work on Physics principle.
>
> Non sequitur.
>
>> Here is my technique to predict earthquake by simulation of earth
>> structure. Things that cause earth quake are.
>
>> 1. Tension in earth Crust.
>
> What about compression, shear, torque, etc?
>
>> 2. Temperature and pressure at various points on earth crust.
>> 3. Material of Earth Crust madeup of
>
> Flaws in the physical structure of the material (i.e. fault lines
> produced by previous earth movements) are VERY important.
>
>> 4. Wind/ Rains etc
>
> Generally not relevant to earthquakes.
>
>> 5. Man Made Structures like Bridges/ Dams.
>
> Dams, maybe, but bridges don't mean squat to earthquakes, except in
> that they are more likely to occur over rivers/bays associated with
> pre-existing fault zones.
>
>> 6. History of previous Earth Quakes.
>
> VERY important, but not always reliable. The USGS keeps records of
> earthquakes world-wide for magnitude 2.5 or larger, and for the USA of
> magnitude 1.0 or
larger:http://earthquake.usgs.gov/
> On a region-by-region basis, historical seismicity is available for a
> few years (since 1990), but that is not not very much help.
> Earthquakes are so common that nearly every place has had numerous
> small earthquakes since 1990.
>
>> 7. What causes EarthQuakes.
>
> See above.
>
>> Once you collect all the data then On a Super Computer we can predict
>> when will Earth Quake happen.
>
> A formidable task, to map all the relevant properties for the entire
> surface of the globe to depths of several hundred km. That would
> probably cost more than trying to scrub a few ppm of CO2 needlessly
> out of the entire atmosphere.
>
>> So if we know there is going to be a Earth Quake people can migrate to
>> other countries till EarthQuake is over saving 10,000 lives every
>> year.
>
> A seismologist's dream since 1906...still unrealizable.
>
>> Why cant physics laws predict Earth Quakes
>
> Rhetorical question: Why can't physics predict the outcome of a roll
> of a pair of dice?
>
>> when it can forecast the
>> Wheather so Correctly?
>
> ahahahahaha! A few years ago I injured myself shoveling 24 inches of
> "partly cloudy" out of my driveway in Colorado.
>
>> I was reading somewhere Scientists were
>> predicting of EarthQuake in USA but this happened in China why was
>> such a big calculation mistake was done.
>
> "Scientists" who make public prediction of this sort are not "good"
> scientists. They are using the First Law of Grantsmanship: "The
> louder the alarm bell you ring, the more funding you can generate for
> your research."
>
>> Do earthquakes happen in Moon, Jupitor and Other Planets Too?
>> Can there be a volcanic erruption which can finish whole Country.
>> Has
>> ever such big Volcanic Erruption has occured which surround whole
>> earth with dust and lava.
>> What was the last time any big Volcanic Erruption took place?
>> Bye
>> Sanny
>
> Tom Davidson
> Richmond, VA
To add to this fine post.
That recent quake occurred at "neap-tide".
I calculated that tidal input from the moon
averages ~ 75 megatons of energy per day,
that accounts for the moon receeded ~3 cm
per year and Earth's day increasing by .0018
sec/century.
However tidal input is sinsodial, with extremes
at max tide and min tide. May 12th corresponded
with a 1st quarter moon, being a minimum tide.
Evidently that fault was/is sensitive to that
tidal condition.
It's a possible factor.
Regards
Ken S. Tucker
