Various Forcasts for Battery Improvements
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Various Forcasts for Battery Improvements         


Author: Bret Cahill
Date: Aug 17, 2008 07:58

Anyone knowledgeable on energy storage technology who gives advice on
investing in, say, copper, might be wondering about future advances in
battery technology.

No one can predict names, dates or improvements but time-profiles of
the most plausible developments may be useful.

Fix cost/watt-hr and plot energy density vs time.

or

Fix efficiency and plot cost-watt-hr vs. time.

or

and so on.

Bret Cahill
15 Comments
Re: Various Forcasts for Battery Improvements         


Author: Daniel T.
Date: Aug 17, 2008 08:46

<http://www.ec.gc.ca/nopp/docs/rpt/battery/en/c7.cfm>
Since the first battery prototype developed in the late 19th century,
the basic battery design has not changed significantly; only the
chemistries have evolved. Introduction of new chemistry composition,
such as lithium ion, has improved battery life but has not solved the
demand. In fact, for most batteries, it is believed that they have been
optimized to reach their maximum output and lifespan. This especially
applies to primary batteries and nickel cadmium (NiCd) batteries.
Conventional batteries are falling behind the demand for more battery
"juice". It does not appear, however, that the lithium-ion battery has
reached its maximum charge limit. Recent announcements by Sony and
Matsushita (which makes Panasonic batteries) claim...
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Re: Various Forcasts for Battery Improvements         


Author: Kitty
Date: Aug 17, 2008 09:03

"Daniel T." earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:daniel_t-FB2206.11461717082008@earthlink.vsrv-sjc.supernews.net...
>
> <http://www.ec.gc.ca/nopp/docs/rpt/battery/en/c7.cfm>
> Since the first battery prototype developed in the late 19th century,
> the basic battery design has not changed significantly; only the
> chemistries have evolved. Introduction of new chemistry composition,
> such as lithium ion, has improved battery life but has not solved the
> demand. In fact, for most batteries, it is believed that they have been
> optimized to reach their maximum output and lifespan. This especially
> applies to primary batteries and nickel cadmium (NiCd) batteries.
> Conventional batteries are falling behind the demand for more battery
> "juice". It does not appear, however, that the lithium-ion battery has
> reached its maximum charge limit. Recent announcements by Sony and
> Matsushita (which makes Panasonic batteries) claim to have improved the
> life of the lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery by up to 30%%.
>
> <http://www.ec.gc.ca/nopp/docs/rpt/battery/en/c7.cfm#s7_3>
> To date, there have been no revolutionary advancements in battery
> design, but this may soon change with the introduction of the micro fuel ...
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Re: Various Forcasts for Battery Improvements         


Author: Bret Cahill
Date: Aug 17, 2008 10:38

> There are advances in solid state & thin film batteries. Check out the
> technologies of

Getting the grid entirely on solar and wind seems somewhat less
daunting now.

If it actually cycles 40K times then it can cost an order of magnitude
more/charge and still be competitive for some applications, stationary
energy storage, semi-trolly buses and tractors.

Even sharing a commuter vehicle with with a quarter ton battery that
needs to be recharged every 200 miles would be preferable to many
solutions.

Bret Cahill
no comments
Re: Various Forcasts for Battery Improvements         


Author: John Larkin
Date: Aug 17, 2008 13:51

On Sun, 17 Aug 2008 12:03:35 -0400, "Kitty" bellsouth.net>
wrote:>There are advances in solid state & thin film batteries. Check
out the
>technologies of
>
>www.excellatron.com
>
>
>Kitty
>

6 years of research. 10,000 prototypes. Production capacity of 100,000
batteries per month.

You'd think they might have a product one of these years.

John
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Re: Various Forcasts for Battery Improvements         


Author: BretCahill
Date: Aug 17, 2008 19:58

>
>>Kitty
>
> 6 years of research. 10,000 prototypes.

Sounds like Edison's light bulb effort.

Of course, if the technology is twice as challenging as getting a
filament white hot then they are only half way there.

Bret Cahill
no comments
Re: Various Forcasts for Battery Improvements         


Author: John Larkin
Date: Aug 17, 2008 21:50

On Sun, 17 Aug 2008 07:58:23 -0700 (PDT), Bret Cahill
aol.com> wrote:
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Re: Various Forcasts for Battery Improvements         


Author: BretCahill
Date: Aug 18, 2008 10:13

>>Anyone knowledgeable on energy storage technology who gives advice on
>>investing in, say, copper, might be wondering about future advances in
>>battery technology.
>
>>No one can predict names, dates or improvements but time-profiles of
>>the most plausible developments may be useful.
>
>>Fix cost/watt-hr and plot energy density vs time.
>
>>or
>
>>Fix efficiency and plot cost-watt-hr vs. time.
>
>>or
>
>>and so on.
>
>>Bret Cahill
>
> Batteries must haul around both chemical reactants, and the resulting ...
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Re: Various Forcasts for Battery Improvements         


Author: John Larkin
Date: Aug 18, 2008 20:57

On Mon, 18 Aug 2008 10:13:24 -0700 (PDT), BretCahill@peoplepc.com
wrote:
>>>Anyone knowledgeable on energy storage technology who gives advice on
>>>investing in, say, copper, might be wondering about future advances in
>>>battery technology.
>>
>>>No one can predict names...
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Re: Various Forcasts for Battery Improvements         


Author: BretCahill
Date: Aug 18, 2008 21:27

>>>>Anyone knowledgeable on energy storage technology who gives advice on
>>>>investing in, say, copper, might be wondering about future advances in
>>>>battery technology.
>
>>>>No one can predict names, dates or improvements but time-profiles of
>>>>the most plausible developments may be useful.
>
>>>>Fix cost/watt-hr and plot energy density vs time.
>
>>>>or
>
>>>>Fix efficiency and plot cost-watt-hr vs. time.
>
>>>>or
>
>>>>and so on.
>
>>>>Bret Cahill
>
>>> Batteries must haul around both chemical reactants, and the resulting ...
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