Re: Usually, the Stock Market is a leading indicator...
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Re: Usually, the Stock Market is a leading indicator...         

Group: alt.philosophy · Group Profile
Author: ta
Date: Feb 7, 2008 08:27

On Feb 6, 6:39 pm, tg earthlink.net> wrote:
> On Feb 6, 5:06 pm, ta nc.rr.com> wrote:
>
>> On Feb 6, 3:40 pm, tg earthlink.net> wrote:
>
>>> On Feb 6, 12:15 pm, ta nc.rr.com> wrote:
>
>>>> On Feb 6, 11:53 am, Jerry Kraus yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>>>>> On Feb 6, 10:45 am, ta nc.rr.com> wrote:
>
>>>>>> On Feb 6, 11:28 am, Jerry Kraus yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>>>>>>> On Feb 6, 10:13 am, ta nc.rr.com> wrote:
>
>>>>>>>> On Feb 6, 10:16 am, Jerry Kraus yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>>>>>>>>> On Feb 5, 4:10 pm, Michae...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>>>>>>>>>> On Feb 5, 11:36 am, Jerry Kraus yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>>>>>>>>>>> ...but, this time, the stock market is a lagging indicator. Usually,
>>>>>>>>>>> a falling stock market leads to a recession. But, this time, the
>>>>>>>>>>> stock market is falling because investors are realizing, after the
>>>>>>>>>>> fact, that we are already in a recession. This is not a good sign for
>>>>>>>>>>> the economy. It means that even with heavy equity investment, the
>>>>>>>>>>> economy has nowhere to go, given the current structure of things. It
>>>>>>>>>>> means that no matter how much money is invested in the current
>>>>>>>>>>> economic structure, it will remain in depression.
>
>>>>>>>>>>> There is a very simple reason for this. There is no middle class
>>>>>>>>>>> anymore. There are a small number of very rich people, and huge
>>>>>>>>>>> numbers of poor people. So, the vast majority of people have no money
>>>>>>>>>>> to spend, and no opportunity to participate in the economy. So, there
>>>>>>>>>>> are no markets. There are no consumers.
>
>>>>>>>>>>> UH-OH!!! Time to spread the money around!!!
>
>>>>>>>>>> spoken like someone who want to legally steal from the rich. Come on
>>>>>>>>>> admit it - your jealous.
>
>>>>>>>>>> Often referred to as class envy or class warfare.- Hide quoted text -
>
>>>>>>>>>> - Show quoted text -
>
>>>>>>>>> Oh, I'm not jealous. I''m hostile. The rich are scum. The rich
>>>>>>>>> should be publicly crucified. They've generally gotten their wealth
>>>>>>>>> through violence, deception and theft.
>
>>>>>>>> (laugh) Ah, the voice of reason. I'm guessing the number of "rich"
>>>>>>>> people you know is exactly zero.
>
>>>>>>>> It's this kind of crazy, silly talk that makes you folks on the left
>>>>>>>> just as in-credible as your counterparts on the right.
>
>>>>>>>>> And then they attempt to
>>>>>>>>> create and enforce laws to keep it, and prevent others from acquiring
>>>>>>>>> it. This is no way to run society. And, yes, this is class warfare.
>>>>>>>>> What of it?
>
>>>>>>>>> In the nations of Scandanavia, such class warfare is unnecessary, and
>>>>>>>>> does not exist. Oh, I know "why don't you go there?". I'd be
>>>>>>>>> delighted. Care to get me citizenship? Otherwise, you have to deal
>>>>>>>>> with people like me. An awful lot of people like me.
>
>>>>>>>> Right on brother! You have nothing to lose but your chains!- Hide quoted text -
>
>>>>>>>> - Show quoted text -
>
>>>>>>> Now, now. Let's not be patronizing. I know plenty of people in all
>>>>>>> social categories.
>
>>>>>> And the wealthy ones you know have achieved their wealth through theft
>>>>>> and violence? Who do you hang out with, mafia gangsters?
>
>>>>>> The wealthy people that I personally know got that way because they
>>>>>> are smart and they worked hard.
>
>>>>>>> If you don't understand the hostility to the rich,
>>>>>>> then you've never been poor.
>
>>>>>> Depends on what you mean by poor -- I've never lacked food or shelter,
>>>>>> that's for certain.
>
>>>>>> Hostility to the rich is envy. Perhaps you could channel that energy
>>>>>> into becoming successful instead of being envious.
>
>>>>>> I know someone who was poor by most definitions -- couldn't pay his
>>>>>> bills for his crappy little run down apartment and eviction was
>>>>>> imminent.
>
>>>>>> Instead of hating the rich, he joined their ranks, and he did so
>>>>>> honestly, sans theft or violence, and with only a high school
>>>>>> education.
>
>>>>>> Do you hate the rich because they are rich or because you aren't?
>
>>>>>>> Wealth is a source of arbitrary power
>>>>>>> that is bound to create hostility amongst those who don't have it.
>
>>>>>> Not necessarily. Instead of hating them, you could learn from them. Oh
>>>>>> wait, that's right -- they're all thieves and killers!
>
>>>>>>> People are all pretty similar -- petty, grasping, arbitrary, selfish,
>>>>>>> controlling -- but wealth gives people opportunities to indulge and
>>>>>>> justify these vices that the poor don't have. That's why some social
>>>>>>> controls over excessive wealth are necessary. Otherwise, things get
>>>>>>> rather uncivilized.
>
>>>>>> So basically what you're saying is that we should lower the bar to
>>>>>> make you feel less insecure? The rich should be less successful,
>>>>>> smart, and hard working so that you feel better about yourself?
>
>>>>>> I think you've got it backwards.- Hide quoted text -
>
>>>>>> - Show quoted text -
>
>>>>> I feel fairly confident that I would score higher on any IQ test or
>>>>> any skills test than our President, George Bush. Mr. Bush is a very
>>>>> wealthy man. He has not earned his wealth. He was born into it.
>
>>>> Well, sure, but George Bush is an unrepresentative sample of the pool
>>>> of wealthy people in general. You could say he gives rich people a bad
>>>> name. About 15%% of people inherit their wealth -- what about the other
>>>> 85%%?
>
>>> Ta, no argument with your advice to JK, but where do you get that
>>> figure? As with 'middle class', everyone's ideas about what
>>> constitutes 'rich' seems to be different. Also, I don't know how you
>>> would measure this.
>
>>> -tg
>
>> The 15%% number referred to millionaires, and the source was:
>
>> "Today 85 percent of wealthy people are self-made, first generation,
>> millionaires (the other 15 percent inherit their wealth), and all the
>> indicators suggest that there are five pathways to becoming wealthy as
>> follows:
>
>> [[[ta comment: I'm not sure what "the indicators" are that he is
>> referencing.]]]]
>
>> 1. Business Owners
>
>> The ability to start and build your own business - entrepreneurship -
>> accounts for 74 percent of all self-made millionaires. There are
>> about 150,000 business owners in Ireland. The casualty rate is high
>> with 58 percent of start-ups failing within five years yet more than
>> half the population dream about setting up their own business.
>> Managerial incompetence and inexperience is the number one reason for
>> business failure. Interestingly, the average self-made millionaire has
>> been broke or nearly broke 2.4 times before becoming wealthy.
>
>> 2. Corporate Managers
>
>> Being a highly-paid executive in a fast-growth or very successful
>> company is another way to get rich. About 10 percent of HNWIs get
>> wealthy by being well paid and promoted as professional managers,
>> earning stock options, bonuses, and getting involved in profit sharing
>> schemes. Ireland is well endowed with multi-national organisations
>> that produce wealthy individuals. Anglo Irish Bank is reputed to have
>> produced 20 millionaires in the last decade alone.
>
>> 3. The Professionals
>
>> About 10 percent of self-made millionaires are doctors, dentists,
>> lawyers, architects, engineers, consultants and others with specialist
>> degrees who can charge high fees for their services. Their specialised
>> knowledge makes their contribution extremely valuable and their
>> clients pay above the norm for their services. They get paid more for
>> what they have done - services rendered and their expertise - than for
>> what they do in any specific transaction. According to the
>> Competition Authority the average income of a senior counsel is
>> EURO 270,000 while the top 10 percent earn more than EURO 600,000 a year.
>
>> 4. The Sales Supremo
>
>> An interesting category of self-made millionaires - about five percent
>> - are professional sales people. These people never started their own
>> business, or earned professional degrees, but became very good at
>> selling a product, and are well paid for doing it. However, they
>> managed their money very smartly, invested it intelligently, and made
>> it grow until they become millionaires. Some sales executives earn
>> huge bonuses and commissions because they create value in the sales
>> process and deliver exceptional sales growth, the most important
>> ingredient in business success.
>
>> 5. The One Percent Rest
>
>> The final category of self-made millionaires fall into the general
>> category of entertainers, sports stars, authors, lottery winners and
>> all other sources. These get lots of media attention but merely make
>> up the numbers in real wealth terms. They are the exceptions to the
>> rule in almost all cases for their category. For example, film stars
>> make millions, but 90 percent of all actors earn very average
>> incomes. Sports stars get lots of news, but most full-time sports
>> professionals just about survive."
>
>
>> Also see:
>
>> "1. According to a study of Federal Reserve data conducted by NYU
>> professor Edward Wolff, for the nation's richest 1%%, inherited wealth
>> accounted for only 9%% of their net worth in 2001, down from 23%% in
>> 1989. (The 2001 number was the latest available.)
>
>> 2. According to a study by Prince & Associates, less than 10%% of
>> today's multi-millionaires cited "inheritance" as their source of
>> wealth.
>
>> 3. A study by Spectrem Group found that among today's millionaires,
>> inherited wealth accounted for just 2%% of their total sources of
>> wealth.
>
>> Each of these stats measures slightly different things, yet they all
>> come to the same basic conclusion: Inheritance is not the main driver
>> of today's wealth. The reason we've had a doubling in the number of
>> millionaires and billionaires over the past decade (even adjusted for
>> inflation) is that more of the non-wealthy have become wealthy.
>
>> So it's not just that the same old rich folks are getting richer. The
>> more-important shift is that the rich are getting more numerous."
>
>
>> I agree that terms like "rich" and "wealthy" are hazy and up for
>> debate, and it's tricky to quantify without clear boundaries. My point
>> is that all of this talk about rich people all being thieves, killers,
>> and lazy rich kids is nonsense.
>
> I think there's a tendency to demonize people in general, on all sides
> of any position, and I think we all have to examine our own behavior
> in this regard.
>
> But in this case I am just looking at a statistical claim and trying
> to see if it makes sense. And the outcome is indeed influenced (as
> with most such analysis) by the categories you set up. For example, if
> I inherit 500K I don't count as a millionaire, but if I invest that at
> 10%% for 8 years I become a 'new millionaire'. For the vast majority
> of people, who would be ecstatic to inherit 50K, calling that "the
> rich getting richer" would seem pretty fair.
>
> If entrepreneurs go broke 5 times before they make it (to get that 2.5
> average), then they must be getting investment money from somewhere.
> And the average person, with no affluent family and/or friends, with a
> track record of failures, isn't going to get that.
>
> I could go on about the wording in some of these reports but they
> generally seem overstated.

I concede that the blanket statement that 15%% of millionaires inherit
their wealth is probably not very meaningful.

As to the chances for climbing the socioeconomic ladder, here is a
study I found that contradicts the suppositions above. I haven't
finished reading it, and I'm not sure I understand all of the
statistics behind the study, but here is the summary:

"The key findings relating to intergenerational mobility include the
following:

*
Children from low-income families have only a 1 percent chance
of reaching the top 5 percent of the income distribution, versus
children of the rich who have about a 22 percent chance.
*
Children born to the middle quintile of parental family income
($42,000 to $54,300) had about the same chance of ending up in a lower
quintile than their parents (39.5 percent) as they did of moving to a
higher quintile (36.5 percent). Their chances of attaining the top
five percentiles of the income distribution were just 1.8 percent.
*
Education, race, health and state of residence are four key
channels by which economic status is transmitted from parent to child.
*
African American children who are born in the bottom quartile
are nearly twice as likely to remain there as adults than are white
children whose parents had identical incomes, and are four times less
likely to attain the top quartile.
*
The difference in mobility for blacks and whites persists even
after controlling for a host of parental background factors,
children's education and health, as well as whether the household was
female-headed or receiving public assistance.
*
After controlling for a host of parental background variables,
upward mobility varied by region of origin, and is highest (in
percentage terms) for those who grew up in the South Atlantic and East
South Central regions, and lowest for those raised in the West South
Central and Mountain regions.
*
By international standards, the United States has an unusually
low level of intergenerational mobility: our parents' income is highly
predictive of our incomes as adults. Intergenerational mobility in the
United States is lower than in France, Germany, Sweden, Canada,
Finland, Norway and Denmark. Among high-income countries for which
comparable estimates are available, only the United Kingdom had a
lower rate of mobility than the United States.

Key findings relating to short-run, year-to-year income movements
include the following:

*
The overall volatility of household income increased
significantly between 1990-91 and 1997-98 and again in 2003-04.
*
Since 1990-91, there has been an increase in the share of
households who experienced significant downward short-term mobility.
The share that saw their incomes decline by $20,000 or more (in real
terms) rose from 13.0 percent in 1990-91 to 14.8 percent in 1997-98 to
16.6 percent in 2003-04.
*
The middle class is experiencing more insecurity of income,
while the top decile is experiencing less. From 1997-98 to 2003-04,
the increase in downward short-term mobility was driven by the
experiences of middle-class households (those earning between $34,510
and $89,300 in 2004 dollars). Households in the top quintile saw no
increase in downward short-term mobility, and households in the top
decile ($122,880 and up) saw a reduction in the frequency of large
negative income shocks.
*
For the middle class, an increase in income volatility has led
to an increase in the frequency of large negative income shocks, which
may be expected to translate to an increase in financial distress.
*
The median household was no more upwardly mobile in 2003-04, a
year when GDP grew strongly, than it was it was during the recession
of 1990-91.
*
Upward short-term mobility for those in the bottom quintile has
improved since 1990-91, with no significant offsetting increase in
downward short-term mobility.
*
Households whose adult members all worked more than 40 hours per
week for two years in a row were more upwardly mobile in 1990-91 and
1997-98 than households who worked fewer hours. Yet this was not true
in 2003-04, suggesting that people who work long hours on a consistent
basis no longer appear to be able to generate much upward mobility for
their families."

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2006/04/b1579981.html
> -tg> > > He
>>>>> has run the country like a country club for the benefit of his rich
>>>>> friends, and at the expense of the poor, the middle class, and the
>>>>> rest of the planet. And, as you are no doubt aware, this is not just
>>>>> my opinion.
>
>>>> I wouldn't disagree with most of that, but George Bush is not all rich
>>>> people. Your hatred is misplaced.
>
>>>>> Opportunities do not exist in the U.S.
>
>>>> Nonsense. There are all kinds of opportunities. Look, the rules favor
>>>> those who already have the wealth, but you can either accept that fact
>>>> and do the best you can or you can go on with your unproductive hating
>>>> and envy.
>
>>>>> This country is now run by
>>>>> scum, for scum. And, scum will get their just desserts. By whatever
>>>>> means are necessary.
>
>>>> Alrighty then. Good luck with that.
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