"tg"
earthlink.net> wrote in message
news:dc911a6b-db03-4220-8c75-c745e980b942@34g2000hsh.googlegroups.com...
On Jun 12, 12:03 am, "Sean" bro.org> wrote:>> It's interesting, in observing all of the activity surrounding the
>> catastrophic runup in oil prices lately that virtually no one is
>> providing the fairly obvious explanation that we're out of oil.
>
> Maybe that's because we're not out of Oil at all.
>
> Ah,
>
>> it's the War in Iraq, or, it's gas-guzzling SUV's, or, it's those
>> pesky Chinese and Indians with their burgeoning populations and
>> economies, or, it's the Greed of the Oil Companies, or, it's our
>> inability to adequately conserve, or, it's because we aren't drilling
>> offshore and in Alaska. Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhh!!!!
>
> It's all of those pushing up the Price, but more than the above it's the
> manipulation of world trade by vested interests, including Stock markets
> and
> the money trader system. iow it's a free market system taking advantage of
> the market forces to profiteer
>
>> The pump is dry. The well is used up. The barn is empty. We are
>> fresh out. We no longer have those items in stock. No, I'm sorry, we
>> don't have any of those.
>
> It's isn't dry, there is enormous amounts of Oil, and there is NO shortage
> of it. Tankers do not lay idle in exporting countries waiting to fill up,
> oil wells are not dry, there is ample Oil to meet the current demand for
> Oil, no doubt about it.
>
> There is not one Gas Station in the USA that is out of Oil, not one, so
> "shortage" of Oil is NOT the driver of the current price hikes.
>
Why would a tanker waiting to fill up be the test for the term
'shortage', rather than an increase in retail price? Are you saying
that having a tanker sit idle doesn't cost money?
-tg
-------------------------------------------
Do I really have to answer those questions?
Economic shortage is a term describing a disparity between the amount
demanded for a product or service and the amount supplied in a market.
Specifically, a shortage occurs when there is excess demand; therefore, it
is the opposite of a surplus.
and
OPEC Supply OPEC crude oil production is projected to average 36.9 million
bbl/d in the second quarter, 140,000 bbl/d higher than first quarter levels.
Over the quarter, lower production in Nigeria, due to security problems and
a workers strike, was offset by higher Iraqi and Saudi production. Saudi
Arabia reportedly increased output in mid-May by 300,000 bbl/d, with
production expected to reach 9.4 million bbl/d in June. At these production
levels, global surplus production capacity, virtually all of which is in
Saudi Arabia, should be about 1.4 million bbl/d in June (OPEC Surplus Oil
Production Capacity). OPEC crude oil production is expected to increase
during the third quarter of 2008, although this is dependent upon how the
security situation in Iraq and Nigeria evolves..
Inventories. OECD commercial inventories fell in the first quarter of 2008
by about 430,000 bbl/d, in line with the 5-year average decline during that
part of the year. At the end of the first quarter, OECD commercial
inventories stood at 2.54 billion barrels, 18 million barrels above the
5-year average and equal to 53 days of forward consumption.
virtually all of the growth in non-OPEC supply is expected in the second
half of the year, with an expected year-over-year increase of 820,000 bbl/d,
driven by growth in Brazil and Azerbaijan
AND
World has enough oil reserves, says BP boss
Terry Macalister, Guardian
The world is not running out of oil and can continue to produce hydrocarbons
for the next 40 years provided restrictions are lifted on where companies
can operate, the head of BP said today.
The Arctic and currently closed areas off the coast of America should be
considered for exploration if rising global energy demand is to be met in
future, said chief executive Tony Hayward.
He insisted that all other forms of energy, whether clean-tech or otherwise,
also need to be developed simultaneously while rising carbon emissions could
still be curbed.
... The BP boss was talking at the launch of his company's annual
statistical review of world energy which showed that world oil consumption
grew by 1.1%% in 2007, or 1m barrels a day, slightly below the 10-year
average, while production fell by 0.2%%, or 130,000 barrels a day, the first
decline in five years.
An increasing number of oil industry commentators have put forward the view
that "peak oil" has now been reached - or shortly will be - and is
responsible for a 40%% rise in crude prices this year to record highs of
nearly $140 a barrel. BP, though, said today that proved oil reserves at
1.24tn barrels are enough to meet current production for 41 years.
(11 June 2008)
Oil data lag may cause sharp price fall -Lehman
Reuters
Oil prices could fall sharply toward the end of this year or early next year
as evidence of eroding demand in Asian economies slowly materialises,
investment bank Lehman Brothers said in a report.
... Lehman analysts said they believed oil prices in the high double-digits
would curb demand growth enough to allow supplies to catch up, but that it
may take months for demand destruction to appear in data, and that oil
traders "appear to have lost patience".
(9 June 2008)
Saudi Arabia to call summit of oil producers
Terry Macalister, Guardian
Saudi Arabia says it will call a summit of oil producers and consumers in a
bid to stem the soaring price of oil amid fears that the world economy could
suffer if fuel costs continue to rise.
The world's biggest producer said that recent rises - including the record
$10 rise on Friday - were not justified by market fundamentals and that the
kingdom would work with Opec to guarantee supplies. (9 June 2008)
--------------------------------
PS
Due to the USA's trade sanctions on Iran, it is restricting their ability to
increase oil production for the last 28 years.
Due to the USA's invasion of Iraq and subsequent security instability in
that nation plus the region, the factoring in of higher prices for future
orders due to the "unknown" keeps occuring.
---------------------------
Does that all add up ok?
