The Real Value of Polls
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The Real Value of Polls         


Author: Bret Cahill
Date: Jan 11, 2008 08:51

Only two things can happen with polls:

1. if something is going on, then the polls will be wrong.

2. if nothing is going on, then the polls will be correct but not not
very useful because nothing was going on.

So, at first glance, it looks like the polls are always worthless
because they are either wrong or unimportant.

Polls actually do serve a purpose: When they are wrong by more than a
few points then it is proof positive something _was_ going on.

They are therefore, most valuable in primaries.

Bret Cahill
22 Comments
Re: The Real Value of Polls         


Author: zinnic
Date: Jan 11, 2008 09:01

On Jan 11, 10:51 am, Bret Cahill aol.com> wrote:
> Only two things can happen with polls:
>
> 1.  if something is going on, then the polls will be wrong.
>
> 2.  if nothing is going on, then the polls will be correct but not not
> very useful because nothing was going on.
>
> So, at first glance, it looks like the polls are always worthless
> because they are either wrong or unimportant.
>
> Polls actually do serve a purpose:  When they are wrong by more than a
> few points then it is proof positive something _was_ going on.
>
> They are therefore, most valuable in primaries.
>

Do you mean that when they are wrong they help little ladies "find
their own voice'?
no comments
Re: The Real Value of Polls         


Author: Bret Cahill
Date: Jan 11, 2008 09:47

>> Only two things can happen with polls:
>
>> 1. �if something is going on, then the polls will be wrong.
>
>> 2. �if nothing is going on, then the polls will be correct but not not
>> very useful because nothing was going on.
>
>> So, at first glance, it looks like the polls are always worthless
>> because they are either wrong or unimportant.
>
>> Polls actually do serve a purpose: �When they are wrong by more than a
>> few points then it is proof positive something _was_ going on.
>
>> They are therefore, most valuable in primaries.
>
> Do you mean that when they are wrong they help little ladies "find
> their own voice'?

When they are wrong it indicates that voters are making _their_ voices
heard only by secret ballot.
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Re: The Real Value of Polls         


Author: Immortalist
Date: Jan 11, 2008 19:46

On Jan 11, 8:51 am, Bret Cahill aol.com> wrote:
> Only two things can happen with polls:
>
> 1. if something is going on, then the polls will be wrong.
>
> 2. if nothing is going on, then the polls will be correct but not not
> very useful because nothing was going on.
>
> So, at first glance, it looks like the polls are always worthless
> because they are either wrong or unimportant.
>
> Polls actually do serve a purpose: When they are wrong by more than a
> few points then it is proof positive something _was_ going on.
>
> They are therefore, most valuable in primaries.
>
> Bret Cahill
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Re: The Real Value of Polls         


Author: Bret Cahill
Date: Jan 12, 2008 08:07

> Accurate forecasts rely upon two factors.
> (1) The sample must be representative
> �of the population
> (2) The questions that are asked
> �should generate truthful answers.

. . . .
> In order to ensure that the questions get truthful answers from the
> sampled individuals then the interviews and questionnaires should not
> use leading questions, or adopt a moralistic high tone and in essence
> should be carried out in a neutral manner.

There's more to it than that. Obviously if the surveyor or anyone
associated with him has a year long track record of gush hyping
nonsense and has deluded himself into believing someone believes his
nonsense, it isn't going to work either.

The people will simply humor the delusional idiots when the pollster
calls.

The really funny part is when a corp. media whore says, "I can't
figger out why I get paid so much to never know what is going on."

Ain't that a great job?
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Re: The Real Value of Polls         


Author: Fred Weiss
Date: Jan 12, 2008 08:26

On Jan 11, 11:51 am, Bret Cahill aol.com> wrote:
> Only two things can happen with polls:
>
> 1. if something is going on, then the polls will be wrong.

Still obsessing about the "14 pt." discrepancy in N. Hampshire? (Brat
likes to obsess).

I read a very simple explanation. A lot of women who were sympathetic
to both Osama and Hillar-ious but were leaning to Osama, switched
after Hillar-ious weeped. All their busting l'il hearts just reached
out to the poor l'il thang.

Women have known for a long, long time that when all else fails, a
good cry will get them what they want.

That was the "something going on".

Unfortunately for Hillar-ious, I don't think that card can be played
more than once and it's probably not a good sign for her campaign that
she was forced to use it so early.
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Re: The Real Value of Polls         


Author: Bret Cahill
Date: Jan 12, 2008 09:12

>> Only two things can happen with polls:
>> 1. �if something is going on, then the polls will be wrong.
> Still obsessing about the "14 pt." discrepancy in N. Hampshire?

You'll see more and more double digit polling errors as the corp.
media become more and more rightarded - corrupt, in a state of denial,
desperate that they cannot compete with the internet.

. . .
> I read a very simple explanation.
> A lot of women who were sympathetic
> to both Osama and Hillar-ious but were leaning to Osama, switched
> after Hillar-ious weeped.

Does anyone pretend to know how NH women actually voted? With 14
point polling errors every last woman originally favoring Obama could
have stuck with Obama with more men switching their vote Hillary.

Everyone knows women's tactics only work on men, not women. Check out
the Maureen Dowd column for proof of that.

In any event, no matter if it was men or women, the pseudo macho
Dumbya has made a mockery of GOP's "tough talk" and there's no
question this really helped set things up for a woman president.
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Re: The Real Value of Polls         


Author: Fred Weiss
Date: Jan 12, 2008 14:59

On Jan 12, 12:12 pm, Bret Cahill aol.com> wrote:
> I'll be waiting here for your next implausible rationalization after
> SC.

Stay tuned.

Fred Weiss
no comments
Re: The Real Value of Polls         


Author: bernardZ
Date: Jan 13, 2008 00:31

In article d0edbba6990c@j20g2000hsi.googlegroups.com>, BretCahill@aol.com says...
>>> Only two things can happen with polls:
>
>>> 1. ?if something is going on, then the polls will be wrong.
>
>> Still obsessing about the "14 pt." discrepancy in N. Hampshire?
>
> You'll see more and more double digit polling errors as the corp.
> media become more and more rightarded - corrupt, in a state of denial,
> desperate that they cannot compete with the internet.
>

More and more people are lying to the people taking the poll.
no comments
Re: The Real Value of Polls         


Author: Bret Cahill
Date: Jan 13, 2008 09:14

>>>> Only two things can happen with polls:
>
>>>> 1. ?if something is going on, then the polls will be wrong.
>
>>> Still obsessing about the "14 pt." discrepancy in N. Hampshire?
>
>> You'll see more and more double digit polling errors as the corp.
>> media become more and more rightarded - corrupt, in a state of denial,
>> desperate that they cannot compete with the internet.
>
> More and more people are lying to the people taking the poll.

You think we should quit the secret ballot?

Bret Cahill
no comments
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