On May 17, 11:28Â am, Robert Cohen
msn.com> wrote:> On May 17, 9:02Â am, "jonathan"
write.instead.net> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>>> "Robert Cohen"
msn.com> wrote in message>
>
>>> This is philosophy, and the philosophical aspects of  environmental
>>> controversy are ...what?
>
>> Have we yet found the wisdom to live within nature?
>> Or is Nature about to reassert her power over us?
>
>>> I am not a scientist, or even close, and claims with statistics  put
>>> me to sleep.
>
>> My hobby is complexity science, which attempts to connect all
>> the disciplines with a single scientific language.
>
>
>
>> So instead of using statistics, let's try to use examples from other fields
>> as analogies.
>
>> The concept of  'tipping point' is the key question in global warming
>> ...where is that 'point'? And what  happens once we reach it?
>
>> That is where people begin tossing around all kinds of stats.
>> Unfortunately, climate involves so much complexity that no
>> amount of stats can give those answers. Â We must learn how
>> to recognize the behavior we wish to understand by
>> observing it elsewhere.
>
>> For instance, oil prices have been going up for a very long time.
>> But it's been only the most recent prices increases that have
>> set off all kinds of indirect effects. Such as the food shortages
>> and riots in parts of world. Those cascading unintended effects
>> are signs of an approaching 'tipping point'. Which mathematically
>> speaking, is a point where non-linear relationships emerge.
>> Non-linear relationships are where large and unpredictable
>> effects can be generated from relatively small changes in inputs.
>
>> Where the output is not always proportional to the input.
>
>> "24. At the critical point, any size of perturbation can potentially
>> Â Â Â cause any size of effect - it is impossible to predict the size
>> Â Â Â of the effect from the size of the perturbation (for large,
>> Â Â Â analytically intractable systems). A power law distribution
>> Â Â Â is found over time, but the timing and size of any particular
>> Â Â Â perturbation is indeterminate."
http://www.calresco.org/sos/sosfaq.htm#7.2
>
>>> And, btw,  I also  talked my way out of jury duty--"I read about the
>>> bribery case in a newspaper," which was actually true: But I also
>>> didn't really want to have to judge the defendant's actions.
>
>> I've been called twice for jury duty and made sure I was picked
>> both times. I loved every minute of being on a jury trial.
>> Collective wisdom is the highest of all.
>
>>> This alarming/alarmist article is hopefully "crying wolf" and
>>> propaganda.
>
>> There are so many data sets that bias can easily pick and chose
>> which stats to quote. One fact must be remembered at all times
>> when looking at any data on this subject. The basic concept
>> of global warming is that as the planet warms, climate changes
>> will become more volatile while becoming less predictable.
>> Chaotic!
>
>> Which means trends and weather events will become...less...
>> identifiable and...less...predictable. As the planet warms
>> essentially...'into the dark we go'...scientifically speaking.
>
>> But the most trustworthy, even if it's also somewhat biased
>> is to go the official US govt agency responsible for studying
>> the climate of the earth....NASA. Their bias is much like
>> the current administration right now. Downplay but not
>> deny.
>
>
>>> Since I don't know, I will not argue technical esoterica about the
>>> issue.
>
>> OK!
>
>> The world has formed a consensus.
>> Which means the pattern  has been recognized.
>> Which means global warming is NOT thirty
>> years off, it's already here.
>
>> We're in the middle of it already.
>
>> Once a trend has been recognized, it's already
>> happening and too late to prevent.
>> Not too late to manage it though.
>
>>> Either side may persuade me depending on how i feel after lunch,
>>> though common sensical prudence is generally on the green side imho.
>
>> Since we're already there, the question must now be, what happens
>> ....after...we reach the tipping point. Well, other natural systems give
>> us those answers. Â What happened when the Nasdaq hit it's tipping
>> point in the nineties? Or the more recent bubble bursting with in the
>> home mortgage industry?
>
>> Hint: it's not pretty a pretty picture.
>
>> However, that future is not yet certain. There are ...two and only two
>> futures once a tipping or critical point is approached.
>
>> One is the big crash after the bubble bursts, followed by
>> large unpredictable swings in behavior, until a dramatically
>> different equilibrium is settled upon.
>
>> The other is to gently bounce off the point, and
>> rebound back towards the previous equilibrium.
>
>> The rates of change, or rate of warming decides which
>> fate is ours. Too fast, and the first case happens where
>> we'll likely see the  rapid, as in out of nowhere, onset
>> of a very long and cold  ....ice age.
>
>> Not so fast and we spring gently back, settling down
>> on a somewhat warmer equilibrium than normal.
>
>> When I try to pull together all the large global trends
>> to try to determine whether the rate of change will
>> slow or quicken from here on out. I see the outcome
>> as a result of the battle between two grand forces.
>
>> One, the power of dictatorships such as in China, and other
>> unrestrained rising economies, to pollute all they like without
>> concern for what anyone thinks.
>
>> The other is market-like forces of all kinds, economic,
>> political and public opinion etc. Will these natural-like
>> forces quickly rise up and find opportunities in slowing
>> the rate of change of greenhouse gasses.
>
>> We must not overanalyze these questions.
>
>> Since the change itself is the result of the explosion
>> of life on earth. It will be natural processes of life that
>> govern such changes, as opposed to unnatural change
>> such as impacts, and other one-off events.
>
>> The answer and our future must then be firmly in
>> the hands of Mother Nature.
>
>> Nature creates by driving systems to the edge of chaos
>> and gently bouncing off.
>
>> With global warming, Nature will be taking us right
>> up to the precipice of disaster and give us a good long
>> look at what catastrophe really means. And at the last
>> minute, nature/natural forces will regain control over
>> humanity and pull us back.
>
>> The entire planet, and our future, will be better for it.
>
>> As this journey to the edge defines the point at which
>> natural forces, such as public opinion, free markets
>> and democracy...rule the earth once again. No longer
>> will the man-made horrors of dictatorships and wars
>> be the strongest force.
>
>> /This tipping point/ is where earth begins it's long needed
>> ...Return to Nature....once and for all.
>
>> Imho.
>
>> Jonathan
>
>
>> - Show quoted text -
>
> Thanks for excelllent response: Please ignore:
>
>
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/16/us/16ants.html?em&ex=1211169600&en=...
>
> The Rasberry Ants are fecund.
>
> The Rasberry Ants are allegedly nearly indestructible and tres cher to
> kill.
>
> The Rasberry Ants are coming, the Rasberry Ants are coming.
>
> At least they (apparently) don't sting & bite a la fire ants.
>
> The first scientist that neuters 'em deserves whatever s(he) needs to
> be infinitely satisfied.
>
> $500 million wouldn't be enough to reward the Rasberry Ant plague-
> solving biologist(s).
>
> And what's this got to do with philosophy?
>
> No natural predators (birds?) are known.
>
> See  genre 1950s B catastrophe movie--THE ROLING TOMATOS  & RUSSIANS
> ARE COMING--for parody.
>
> Don't venture into yard until NIKE etal make a champion anti-stomping
> tennis shoe.
>
> Because last night I stomped two or three times on an ant near garage-
> kitchen door, and it lived, wangled away, and is still loose & surely
> pisssed.
>
> It's gonna take each and every patriotic bug spray, electronic-
> shocking bad mitten racquet, and diesel steam roller.
>
> Have they tried boric acid because it works on cockroaches.
>
> Perhaps President to be Barrak McCain will inspire the country.
>
> Philosophical issue: What if I'm reincarnated as a $1 (plus sales tax)
> can of ant spray?
>
> Georgia Political Issue: Suspend sales tax on ant killers.
>
> Bumper Sticker: If nuclear bombs are banned, the ants takeover.
>
> IF ANTS ARE MURDERED, THEN WHAT DO UNCLS DO WHEN HORNY?- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
editing instruction for google editor: dismember anti-stomping to
stomping
