> "Robert Cohen" msn.com> wrote in message
>
> news:e796033f-07ea-4e22-bf11-0d5285afcacd@d45g2000hsc.googlegroups.com...
>

>> This is philosophy, and the philosophical aspects of  environmental
>> controversy are ...what?

>
> Have we yet found the wisdom to live within nature?
> Or is Nature about to reassert her power over us?
>
>
>

>> I am not a scientist, or even close, and claims with statistics  put
>> me to sleep.

>
> My hobby is complexity science, which attempts to connect all
> the disciplines with a single scientific language.
>
> Dynamics of Complex Systemshttp://necsi.org/publications/dcs/
>
> Self Organizing Systems Faqhttp://www.calresco.org/sos/sosfaq.htm
>
> So instead of using statistics, let's try to use examples from other fields
> as analogies.
>
> The concept of  'tipping point' is the key question in global warming
> ...where is that 'point'? And what  happens once we reach it?
>
> That is where people begin tossing around all kinds of stats.
> Unfortunately, climate involves so much complexity that no
> amount of stats can give those answers.   We must learn how
> to recognize the behavior we wish to understand by
> observing it elsewhere.
>
> For instance, oil prices have been going up for a very long time.
> But it's been only the most recent prices increases that have
> set off all kinds of indirect effects. Such as the food shortages
> and riots in parts of world. Those cascading unintended effects
> are signs of an approaching 'tipping point'. Which mathematically
> speaking, is a point where non-linear relationships emerge.
> Non-linear relationships are where large and unpredictable
> effects can be generated from relatively small changes in inputs.
>
> Where the output is not always proportional to the input.
>
> "24. At the critical point, any size of perturbation can potentially
>       cause any size of effect - it is impossible to predict the size
>       of the effect from the size of the perturbation (for large,
>       analytically intractable systems). A power law distribution
>       is found over time, but the timing and size of any particular
>       perturbation is indeterminate."http://www.calresco.org/sos/sosfaq.htm#7.2
>
>
>

>> And, btw,  I also  talked my way out of jury duty--"I read about the
>> bribery case in a newspaper," which was actually true: But I also
>> didn't really want to have to judge the defendant's actions.

>
> I've been called twice for jury duty and made sure I was picked
> both times. I loved every minute of being on a jury trial.
> Collective wisdom is the highest of all.
>
>
>

>> This alarming/alarmist article is hopefully "crying wolf" and
>> propaganda.

>
> There are so many data sets that bias can easily pick and chose
> which stats to quote. One fact must be remembered at all times
> when looking at any data on this subject. The basic concept
> of global warming is that as the planet warms, climate changes
> will become more volatile while becoming less predictable.
> Chaotic!
>
> Which means trends and weather events will become...less...
> identifiable and...less...predictable. As the planet warms
> essentially...'into the dark we go'...scientifically speaking.
>
> But the most trustworthy, even if it's also somewhat biased
> is to go the official US govt agency responsible for studying
> the climate of the earth....NASA. Their bias is much like
> the current administration right now. Downplay but not
> deny.
>
> Earth Observatoryhttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/GlobalWarmingQandA/
>
>
>

>> Since I don't know, I will not argue technical esoterica about the
>> issue.

>
> OK!
>
> The world has formed a consensus.
> Which means the pattern  has been recognized.
> Which means global warming is NOT thirty
> years off, it's already here.
>
> We're in the middle of it already.
>
> Once a trend has been recognized, it's already
> happening and too late to prevent.
> Not too late to manage it though.
>
>
>

>> Either side may persuade me depending on how i feel after lunch,
>> though common sensical prudence is generally on the green side imho.

>
> Since we're already there, the question must now be, what happens
> ....after...we reach the tipping point. Well, other natural systems give
> us those answers.  What happened when the Nasdaq hit it's tipping
> point in the nineties? Or the more recent bubble bursting with in the
> home mortgage industry?
>
> Hint: it's not pretty a pretty picture.
>
> However, that future is not yet certain. There are ...two and only two
> futures once a tipping or critical point is approached.
>
> One is the big crash after the bubble bursts, followed by
> large unpredictable swings in behavior, until a dramatically
> different equilibrium is settled upon.
>
> The other is to gently bounce off the point, and
> rebound back towards the previous equilibrium.
>
> The rates of change, or rate of warming decides which
> fate is ours. Too fast, and the first case happens where
> we'll likely see the  rapid, as in out of nowhere, onset
> of a very long and cold  ....ice age.
>
> Not so fast and we spring gently back, settling down
> on a somewhat warmer equilibrium than normal.
>
> When I try to pull together all the large global trends
> to try to determine whether the rate of change will
> slow or quicken from here on out. I see the outcome
> as a result of the battle between two grand forces.
>
> One, the power of dictatorships such as in China, and other
> unrestrained rising economies, to pollute all they like without
> concern for what anyone thinks.
>
> The other is market-like forces of all kinds, economic,
> political and public opinion etc. Will these natural-like
> forces quickly rise up and find opportunities in slowing
> the rate of change of greenhouse gasses.
>
> We must not overanalyze these questions.
>
> Since the change itself is the result of the explosion
> of life on earth. It will be natural processes of life that
> govern such changes, as opposed to unnatural change
> such as impacts, and other one-off events.
>
> The answer and our future must then be firmly in
> the hands of Mother Nature.
>
> Nature creates by driving systems to the edge of chaos
> and gently bouncing off.
>
> With global warming, Nature will be taking us right
> up to the precipice of disaster and give us a good long
> look at what catastrophe really means. And at the last
> minute, nature/natural forces will regain control over
> humanity and pull us back.
>
> The entire planet, and our future, will be better for it.
>
> As this journey to the edge defines the point at which
> natural forces, such as public opinion, free markets
> and democracy...rule the earth once again. No longer
> will the man-made horrors of dictatorships and wars
> be the strongest force.
>
> /This tipping point/ is where earth begins it's long needed
> ...Return to Nature....once and for all.
>
> Imho.
>
> Jonathan
>
>
>
>
>

>>http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080526/mckibben- Hide quoted text -

>
> - Show quoted text -