Inevitability??

So let's get real about renewable energy...a survivalists view of the
inevitable.

I marvel at some of the cornucopian's outlooks for our future.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornucopian

Recently the cornucopians are putting their hopes in keeping the jets
flying on algae oil?

Well, who knows??

I am not like the atheists that claim they know everything under the
sun...I am just a lowly agnostic that in the end does not know.

But the cornucopians still have a way to go with algae powered jets.
When the cornucopians can pave roads and make roofing shingles out of
corn instead of asphalt and make tires out of sewage sludge instead of
crude - maybe their time will have arrived.

Whether one is an intellectual, cornucopian or survivalist, they all
have to live in the future to some extent with their thoughts.

The difference between a survivalist and the other two is this.

The intellectuals can keep their mind fixated on the future and
fantasy as long as they want. They have no reckoning in the present.
Their currency of trade is in 'thought' and not in practical
application.

The survivalist on the other hand must come back to the present to
prepare for and implement via 'practical application' what his future
needs will be. As futurists we try to anticipate future events and the
direction the world is headed in and as survivalists we try to prepare
for those circumstances.

So I'd suggest to Al Gore or any politician that takes up the
renewable energy challenge to open up your eyes to truth of 'what is,'
develop a survivalists mentality and not get lost in the fantasy of
'wishful thinking' with how you hope things to be.

But being truthful is lofty goal in and of itself for politicians,
irrespective of changing our entire world when it comes to powering
it.

The mantra of the ego based, power hungry politician is; "Give me
power for a day and I hope the roof waits to falls in on the next guy
and the music wont stop on my presidency." Everything they do while in
office is aimed not at truth and what is best for our country, but at
spin, lies and making themselves look good in the eye of the voters.

All you political knuckleheads that go to these rallies to kiss the
asses of your political deities - pin them down on 'Peak Oil' and see
what they say. What you will get is NOTHING from them. They could not
utter the words Peak Oil if their life depended on it. So it goes with
truth and politicians - they do not mix.

Al Gores proposed a challenge to both political candidates to switch
all electric generation in the US from fossil fuels to renewables
within 10 years. Mr. Gore is way off mark with what we will need for
future energy generation in the US.

He has not addressed a realistic view of the problem. He needs to
increase his goal to a minimum of 300%% to 400%% of our current electric
generation capacity. Then he may be approaching what America will
really need.

And I am conservative in my outlook. The actual number may be closer
to 500%% to 600%% of our current capacity when we factor in the IF'S,
AND'S & BUT'S.

In the US, 93.2%% of our electric comes from nonrenewable, fossil
burning or greenhouse gas producing methods.

If we are looking to hydroelectric and renewable sources, 4.46%% of our
electric comes from hydroelectric and 2.34%% comes from renewable
energy production.

Out of this 2.34%% of renewable sources, an undisclosed portion still
contributes to global warming despite its prestige of being a
'renewable energy source' as it involves the burning of wood, black
liquor, wood waste, municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste,
tires, agriculture byproducts and biomass.

Only a fraction of the 2.34%% of renewable electric energy that is
produced comes from geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy,
and wind. These are the areas that Gore wishes to expand.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epates.html

Electricity is where mankind will turn to for power requirements when
all fossil fuels as well as uranium dry up in the near future.

We can see that humans love affair with fossil fuels will look like a
blip on the screen of humans historical record on earth.

If you don't know what peak oil has to say about our world and don't
want to read the rest of my post, then at least check out:

http://www.energybulletin.net/primer

1) When everyone switches to electric cars and plug into the grid, the
demand for electricity will go up tremendously.

2) Homes that use natural gas, propane, heating oil will switch to
electricity as the fossil fuels will dry up. The highest demand areas
such as heating our homes, heating water and cooking are areas that
can't be done on practical basis with solar in many parts of the
country

Sure if you life in CA or AZ you got some hope with the solar hot
water. Maybe the NE can also get some hot water in the hot humid
summers. But the goal of this massive energy change is to make it as
seamless as possible. Proper planning is the difference between part
time and full time power. Proper planning is the difference between
less deaths versus massive deaths.

http://dieoff.org/

3) All trucks, trains and airplanes will have to find new power
sources. Trains can switch to steam, electric or electromagnet. Truck
may have to be smaller and run on electric or bio fuels. Farm
equipment can be powered by bio fuels.

But all these bio fuels take away from our food production. We can see
that adding 5%% of corn ethanol does to the food picture - and we still
use 95%% gasoline. What will happen to food when we are 0%% gas and 0%%
diesel and 100%% bio fuels and ethanol?

Airlines? My prediction is they will eventually shut down. Although
one commentator on CNBC puts her hopes in running planes on algae oil.
Again time will tell. But as a survivalist I must go with 'what is'
and not fantasy of the cornucopians.

In any case, trains, especially electric trains will be a big area of
transport in our future both for products, food and people when
airlines cease operate.

4) Population increase. More people = more demands for electric. When
people feel bad they look for diversions from pain. If they can't get
drugged up with alcohol or drugs, they also like some genital
situation to escape a hellish life.

More sex = more people.

I don't see the pop trend changing any time soon unless people can't
get food and starve or freeze from lack of heat.

5) Global warming - hotter people demand more electric for A/C.

6) Solar and wind are good supplemental power sources but crappy
uninterrupted power sources. One person said that on average a wind
farm that is spread out will yield power about 33%% of the time, as the
wind is blowing on average in some part of a large geographic area.

So, to make up for when the wind does not blow, we will need much
larger scales of wind generation than we anticipate now. We get
brownouts even with full capacity and fip the switch, fossil fueled
convenience.

Exporting the power is another problem. We can make electricity in
high wind areas, but will lose much of it if we have to export the
wind generated electric long distances to the big cities.

Solar only works for a few hours a day in ideal circumstances...and
does not work much at all if the sun is not out. Our countries power
needs are 24 hours.
The sorry thing about electricity is it cannot be easily stored. (We
can store the 'energy' of electricity by pumping water via electric
pumps uphill and having the water drain back downhill to power a
turbine at a later time.)

7) The US will go back to being a manufacturing nation and have to cut
it's addiction to cheap Chinese and other foreign goods. All these
cargo tankers run on diesel. So, as we cut back on shipping, local
manufacturing will return more so out of design than by desire. More
industrial manufacturing = more need for electricity.

8) Without energy our country is open for takeover ... no jets...no
tanks...no transport on the ground or in the air. Luckily we will
still have nuclear powered submarines and aircraft carriers as long as
the uranium holds out. But the jets on the flattop all use jet fuel.
All the supplies for those subs and carriers petroleum dependent. Will
our military be as successful as it is today when it is all electric?
I don't know, but I do know an all electric military will drain the
grids capacity even further.

As a survivalist I cannot afford to live in dream land as the mind
manacled intellectuals and cornucopians do, I don't pretend to have a
crystal ball and be able to predict the future. I can only prepare for
'possibilities' of what are to come.

Intellectuals and cornucopians put all their faith in predicting an
unknown future that is based on lofty hopes, dreams and wishful
thinking. Whereas the successful survivalist puts their hopes and
dreams in preparing for an uncertain future and knows that 'wishful
thinking' does not go far in life or death situations.

In Richard Heinberg's book 'Power-Down' he contrasts the survivalist
mentality with that of the preservationist.

The wiki on this topic:

"A survivalist is a person who anticipates and prepares for a future
disruption in local, regional or worldwide social or political order."

"Preservationism...as a term distinguishing between survivalist groups
who wish merely to survive a collapse of civilization, and communities
who wish to preserve as much of human culture as is possible in the
event of collapse."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivalist
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preservationist

Mr. Heinberg talked about a gene bank founded by Nikolai Vavilov in
Russia and the dedicated preservationists that guarded the seed and
gene pool. He went on to say how 9 of the scientists and workers
starved to death because they refused to eat the seeds and tubers in
the gene bank.

Now, I don't know if a few seeds or tubers would have made much
difference in their surviving. But I can say a survivalist would have
eaten the first one to die. While their efforts were most admirable,
we can say their life was not an enviable one for us to emulate. And
in the end they failed miserably at self preservation and survival.

But Mr. Heinberg brings up a good point - balancing the two areas of
survival with preservation. For we may well survive, but if we do not
preserve a semblance of a somewhat livable world to survive in, we may
not wish to survive in what remains.

In summation:

Renewables are our future.

Renewable are not a seamless and fungible replicant for fossil fuels.

Renewables do not replace the petrochemical uses of crude oil.

Renewables do not replace the specialized uses of natural gas in
industry or food production.

Renewables will be our future by design and not by desire.

But they are the default choice for our furture power needs as ALL
fossil fuels and nuclear energy source will be depleted in the near
future.

The more realistic we are with our evaluation of the conversion to
renewable energy, the less deaths will occur from fantasizing about
the improbable future that the intellectuals, cornucopians and
political spin doctors have dreamed up.

Take care,

V (Male)

Agnostic Freethinker
Practical Philosopher
Futurist
Urban Homesteader
Agnostic minister of secular humanism to the mind manacled,
spiritually sick, defiance based atheist.
AA#2