> I perceive the message is ambiguity & contradiction, because:
>
> 10. Hey, newspapers are obsolete/going outa bizness--they can't afford
> adding machine monthly payments
> 9. Houses and homes: There are differences according to Funk &
> Wagnalls.
> 8. Math as an abstraction: Archimedes & Pythagoras have images in their
> minds, and thus Berkeley can't get rid of that hovel in California
> 7. Surreal estate prices
> 6. What about that outrageous commission & fees for dis portasan and
> dat respinwahl
> 5--1.. If ya doesn't like it, then move to Cuba or North Korea
>
>
>
> tg wrote:

>> Robert Cohen wrote:

>>> Recall that "end of history" overly-optimistic crape?
>>>
>>> Well, this is the end of ....uh...."economic optimism," perhaps:

>>
>> As your official proofreader....
>>
>> Don't these last two give different figures for the same September
>> price drops?
>>
>> And could you demonstrate your sincerity by giving an explanation of
>> 'median' in your own words, and what such a number tells us?
>>
>> -tg
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>

>>>
>>> http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/27/business/27econ.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Robert Cohen wrote:

>>>> Here is sumthin very pertinent to our discussion via Drudge's
>>>> tabloidish page:
>>>>
>>>> Note how the story/phenomena vary between the Calif story and this
>>>> story
>>>>
>>>> Hey, folks, that's reality: demonstrative of the
>>>> perceptions/dynamics/disputations of reality.
>>>>
>>>> http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/10/26/D8L0C4N00.html
>>>>
>>>> Home Price Drop Is Largest in 35 Years
>>>> Oct 26 10:12 AM US/Eastern
>>>>
>>>> By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
>>>> AP Economics Writer
>>>>
>>>> WASHINGTON
>>>>
>>>> The median price of a new home plunged in September by the largest
>>>> amount in more than 35 years, even as the pace of sales rebounded for a
>>>> second month.
>>>> The Commerce Department reported that the median price for a new home
>>>> sold in September was $217,100, a drop of 9.7 percent from September It
>>>> was the lowest median price for a new home since September 2004 and the
>>>> sharpest year-over-year decline since December 1970. The weakness in
>>>> new home prices was even sharper than a 2.5 percent fall in the price
>>>> of existing homes last month, which had been the biggest drop on
>>>> record.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> The price decline for new homes came while the sales pace picked up,
>>>> rising by 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1.075
>>>> million homes. It marked the second consecutive increase in sales
>>>> following three months of declines.
>>>>
>>>> The declines in prices served to underscore the severity of the
>>>> correction in the once-booming housing market, which had seen sales of
>>>> both new and existing homes soar to record levels for five consecutive
>>>> years, propelled by the lowest mortgage rates in more than four
>>>> decades.
>>>>
>>>> This year, with mortgage rates rising through midsummer, sales have
>>>> cooled considerably, with housing expected to trim more than a
>>>> percentage point from overall growth in the last half of the year.
>>>>
>>>> The debate is whether the slowdown will be enough to push the country
>>>> into an outright recession. The Federal Reserve, recognizing the
>>>> weakness in housing, halted a two-year string of interest rate
>>>> increases in August and left rates unchanged for a third straight
>>>> meeting on Wednesday.
>>>>
>>>> The Fed, however, gave no indication that it planned to start cutting
>>>> rates because of the weakness in housing, saying it was still concerned
>>>> that inflation remained too high.
>>>>
>>>> The 5.3 percent rise in new home sales in September followed a 3.8
>>>> percent rise in August and was the biggest one-month gain since an 8
>>>> percent increase in March. However, sales had fallen for three straight
>>>> months from May through July.
>>>>
>>>> The rise in sales last month was led by a 23.9 percent jump in the
>>>> West. Sales were also up 6.9 percent in the South. However, sales fell
>>>> by 34.5 percent in the Northeast and were down 6.3 percent in the
>>>> Midwest.
>>>>
>>>> In other economic news, the government said that orders to U.S.
>>>> factories for big-ticket manufactured goods, powered by a huge jump in
>>>> demand for commercial jetliners, soared in September by the largest
>>>> amount in more than six years.
>>>>
>>>> The Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods rose by
>>>> 7.8 percent last month to $226.7 billion. The increase followed two
>>>> consecutive months of declines and was the biggest gain since June
>>>> 2000.
>>>>
>>>> The improvement was more than triple the 2.3 percent gain that Wall
>>>> Street had been expecting, but virtually all of the strength came from
>>>> a giant 183.2 percent increase in orders for commercial aircraft.
>>>> Outside of transportation, orders were up a far weaker 0.1 percent.
>>>>
>>>> In a third report, the Labor Department said the number of newly laid
>>>> off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits rose by 8,000 last
>>>> week to a seasonally adjusted 308,000. That increase was in line with
>>>> expectations.
>>>>
>>>> The September 7.8 percent increase in factory orders followed declines
>>>> of 0.1 percent in August and 2.8 percent in July. Despite last month's
>>>> jump, analysts believe that the factory sector is slowing under the
>>>> impact of a weakening overall economy.
>>>>
>>>> The economy began the year with growth at a sizzling pace of 5.6
>>>> percent at an annual rate but saw that slow to 2.6 percent in the
>>>> spring and analysts believe overall economic growth in the just-
>>>> completed July-September quarter slowed even further to around 2
>>>> percent or less. The government will report the actual third quarter
>>>> figure on Friday.
>>>>
>>>> For September, transportation orders rose by 27.6 percent as the big
>>>> jump in demand for commercial aircraft offset a 6.1 percent drop in
>>>> orders to automakers, who have been struggling recently under the
>>>> impact of weak sales of trucks and sport utility vehicles.
>>>>
>>>> The rise in commercial airplane orders had been expected, given that
>>>> Boeing Co. booked new orders for 175 planes, up from 30 in the prior
>>>> month.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material
>>>> may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> tg wrote:

>>>>> Robert Cohen wrote:

>>>>>> I accept your point: sales are 30 percent down, but prices apparently
>>>>>> only slightly so far
>>>>>>
>>>>>> But won't the prices subsequently become much lower when people
>>>>>> actually have to move, since the average move or turnover is every
>>>>>> 5--7 years?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I was very recently in Florida, and the definite message I get is that
>>>>>> prices are indeed falling seemingly in more than one area of
>>>>>> Florida--though the "percent" of price decline is ambiguous since it's
>>>>>> such an inherently volatile market dynamic.
>>>>>>

>>>>>
>>>>> I don't think prices fluctuate as much as you think, except where there
>>>>> is extreme speculation---which might well be the case in Florida. If
>>>>> you buy a house first to live in and them perhaps as a long-term
>>>>> investment, what matters is L-L-L, as the real estate agents say. If
>>>>> your neighborhood tanks, you're screwed, and if your neighborhood is
>>>>> poor and it gets gentrified you get rich.
>>>>>
>>>>> What happens with overbuilt condo developments in some swamp down south
>>>>> is very different.
>>>>>
>>>>> -tg
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>

>>>>>> Of course the Florida property insurance situation has something to do
>>>>>> with it all too.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I apologize to all readers for the inadvertent distorting of
>>>>>> prices/sales volume.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I certainly hope my fears herein this thread sensationally expressed
>>>>>> are more fantasy/paranoia than the fact/reality
>>>>>>
>>>>>> We know that markets fluctuate, and a collapse in housing prices is not
>>>>>> an implausibilty, and whatever I post/think/fear has little to no
>>>>>> impact, which I suppose isn't a bad thing afterall.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> tg wrote:

>>>>>>> The fall of the US will be because people read "sales fell" and think
>>>>>>> it means "prices fell".
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Do you actually read the stuff you post?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> -tg
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Robert Cohen wrote:

>>>>>>>> a) over-due market adjustment/correction/balance
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> b) an overall coming recession
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> c) an overall coming depression
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> d) a domino effect into b or c
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> e) collapse of the heavily debted/leveraged U.S. economic &/or
>>>>>>>> financial system, massive bankruptcies, mass unemployment, chaos,
>>>>>>>> horrors worse than one could envision
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> f) healthier, rational, lessening of previous go-go growth economy
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> g) the end of the affluent American way of life and return to
>>>>>>>> Depression mentality
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> h) very many mortgage company & multiple banking company failures from
>>>>>>>> excessive defaults/foreclosures
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> i) all the above
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The article that provokes my off-the-wall paranoia
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> http://www.latimes.com/business/la-102506homes,0,2287716.story?track=mostviewed-...
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Existing home sales drop 1/3 from '05
>>>>>>>> By Jesus Sanchez, Times Staff Writer
>>>>>>>> 11:48 AM PDT, October 25, 2006
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> California's housing market continued to cool in September as existing
>>>>>>>> home sales sank more than 30%% from year-ago levels and the median price
>>>>>>>> posted a meager increase, according to a real estate report today.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The statewide median sales prices for existing, detached homes rose
>>>>>>>> 1.8%% in September from the same month last year to $553,050, according
>>>>>>>> to the California Assn. of Realtors. September's price increase came
>>>>>>>> after the median sank in August but is still far behind the
>>>>>>>> double-digit gains homeowners enjoyed for several years.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> ADVERTISEMENTIn line with recent months, the pace of sales in September
>>>>>>>> plunged from last year, when sales were at near historic highs.
>>>>>>>> September sales fell 31.7%% to a seasonally adjusted, annual rate of
>>>>>>>> 444,780 homes, said CAR. (The figures exclude new homes and
>>>>>>>> condominiums.)
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Sales for the year are running 24%% below 2005 levels, said association
>>>>>>>> chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young. It is also taking longer to sell
>>>>>>>> a home, with the median number of days it took to complete a sale
>>>>>>>> rising to 54 days in September from 30 days in the same month last
>>>>>>>> year.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> "Areas that experienced a lot of homebuilding in recent years or second
>>>>>>>> home activity have experienced larger declines in sales and weaker
>>>>>>>> prices than the state as a whole," Appleton-Young said in a statement.
>>>>>>>> "These include Northern California, the northern wine country, the
>>>>>>>> Central Valley, San Diego County and the lower desert in Southern
>>>>>>>> California."
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Nationwide, total existing home sales last month slipped 14.2%% from the
>>>>>>>> same month last year to a seasonally adjusted, annual rate of 6.18
>>>>>>>> million units, according to the National Assn. of Realtors.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Meanwhile, the national median sales price in September dropped 2.2%%
>>>>>>>> from year-ago levels to $220,000. That was the largest annual decline
>>>>>>>> since the NAR began tracking sales and prices in 1969. At the current
>>>>>>>> sales pace, it would take 7.3 months to sell the inventory of homes
>>>>>>>> available, according to NAR.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> "High and rising inventory [of unsold homes] is killing prices," said
>>>>>>>> economist Ian Shepherdson in a research note for High Frequency
>>>>>>>> Economics.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>>> jesus.sanchez@latimes.com
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
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