> Robert Cohen wrote:

>> Recall that "end of history" overly-optimistic crape?
>>
>> Well, this is the end of ....uh...."economic optimism," perhaps:

>
> As your official proofreader....
>
> Don't these last two give different figures for the same September
> price drops?
>
> And could you demonstrate your sincerity by giving an explanation of
> 'median' in your own words, and what such a number tells us?
>
> -tg
>
>
>
>
>

>>
>> http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/27/business/27econ.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
>>
>>
>>
>> Robert Cohen wrote:

>>> Here is sumthin very pertinent to our discussion via Drudge's
>>> tabloidish page:
>>>
>>> Note how the story/phenomena vary between the Calif story and this
>>> story
>>>
>>> Hey, folks, that's reality: demonstrative of the
>>> perceptions/dynamics/disputations of reality.
>>>
>>> http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/10/26/D8L0C4N00.html
>>>
>>> Home Price Drop Is Largest in 35 Years
>>> Oct 26 10:12 AM US/Eastern
>>>
>>> By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
>>> AP Economics Writer
>>>
>>> WASHINGTON
>>>
>>> The median price of a new home plunged in September by the largest
>>> amount in more than 35 years, even as the pace of sales rebounded for a
>>> second month.
>>> The Commerce Department reported that the median price for a new home
>>> sold in September was $217,100, a drop of 9.7 percent from September It
>>> was the lowest median price for a new home since September 2004 and the
>>> sharpest year-over-year decline since December 1970. The weakness in
>>> new home prices was even sharper than a 2.5 percent fall in the price
>>> of existing homes last month, which had been the biggest drop on
>>> record.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> The price decline for new homes came while the sales pace picked up,
>>> rising by 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1.075
>>> million homes. It marked the second consecutive increase in sales
>>> following three months of declines.
>>>
>>> The declines in prices served to underscore the severity of the
>>> correction in the once-booming housing market, which had seen sales of
>>> both new and existing homes soar to record levels for five consecutive
>>> years, propelled by the lowest mortgage rates in more than four
>>> decades.
>>>
>>> This year, with mortgage rates rising through midsummer, sales have
>>> cooled considerably, with housing expected to trim more than a
>>> percentage point from overall growth in the last half of the year.
>>>
>>> The debate is whether the slowdown will be enough to push the country
>>> into an outright recession. The Federal Reserve, recognizing the
>>> weakness in housing, halted a two-year string of interest rate
>>> increases in August and left rates unchanged for a third straight
>>> meeting on Wednesday.
>>>
>>> The Fed, however, gave no indication that it planned to start cutting
>>> rates because of the weakness in housing, saying it was still concerned
>>> that inflation remained too high.
>>>
>>> The 5.3 percent rise in new home sales in September followed a 3.8
>>> percent rise in August and was the biggest one-month gain since an 8
>>> percent increase in March. However, sales had fallen for three straight
>>> months from May through July.
>>>
>>> The rise in sales last month was led by a 23.9 percent jump in the
>>> West. Sales were also up 6.9 percent in the South. However, sales fell
>>> by 34.5 percent in the Northeast and were down 6.3 percent in the
>>> Midwest.
>>>
>>> In other economic news, the government said that orders to U.S.
>>> factories for big-ticket manufactured goods, powered by a huge jump in
>>> demand for commercial jetliners, soared in September by the largest
>>> amount in more than six years.
>>>
>>> The Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods rose by
>>> 7.8 percent last month to $226.7 billion. The increase followed two
>>> consecutive months of declines and was the biggest gain since June
>>> 2000.
>>>
>>> The improvement was more than triple the 2.3 percent gain that Wall
>>> Street had been expecting, but virtually all of the strength came from
>>> a giant 183.2 percent increase in orders for commercial aircraft.
>>> Outside of transportation, orders were up a far weaker 0.1 percent.
>>>
>>> In a third report, the Labor Department said the number of newly laid
>>> off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits rose by 8,000 last
>>> week to a seasonally adjusted 308,000. That increase was in line with
>>> expectations.
>>>
>>> The September 7.8 percent increase in factory orders followed declines
>>> of 0.1 percent in August and 2.8 percent in July. Despite last month's
>>> jump, analysts believe that the factory sector is slowing under the
>>> impact of a weakening overall economy.
>>>
>>> The economy began the year with growth at a sizzling pace of 5.6
>>> percent at an annual rate but saw that slow to 2.6 percent in the
>>> spring and analysts believe overall economic growth in the just-
>>> completed July-September quarter slowed even further to around 2
>>> percent or less. The government will report the actual third quarter
>>> figure on Friday.
>>>
>>> For September, transportation orders rose by 27.6 percent as the big
>>> jump in demand for commercial aircraft offset a 6.1 percent drop in
>>> orders to automakers, who have been struggling recently under the
>>> impact of weak sales of trucks and sport utility vehicles.
>>>
>>> The rise in commercial airplane orders had been expected, given that
>>> Boeing Co. booked new orders for 175 planes, up from 30 in the prior
>>> month.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material
>>> may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> tg wrote:

>>>> Robert Cohen wrote:

>>>>> I accept your point: sales are 30 percent down, but prices apparently
>>>>> only slightly so far
>>>>>
>>>>> But won't the prices subsequently become much lower when people
>>>>> actually have to move, since the average move or turnover is every
>>>>> 5--7 years?
>>>>>
>>>>> I was very recently in Florida, and the definite message I get is that
>>>>> prices are indeed falling seemingly in more than one area of
>>>>> Florida--though the "percent" of price decline is ambiguous since it's
>>>>> such an inherently volatile market dynamic.
>>>>>

>>>>
>>>> I don't think prices fluctuate as much as you think, except where there
>>>> is extreme speculation---which might well be the case in Florida. If
>>>> you buy a house first to live in and them perhaps as a long-term
>>>> investment, what matters is L-L-L, as the real estate agents say. If
>>>> your neighborhood tanks, you're screwed, and if your neighborhood is
>>>> poor and it gets gentrified you get rich.
>>>>
>>>> What happens with overbuilt condo developments in some swamp down south
>>>> is very different.
>>>>
>>>> -tg
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>

>>>>> Of course the Florida property insurance situation has something to do
>>>>> with it all too.
>>>>>
>>>>> I apologize to all readers for the inadvertent distorting of
>>>>> prices/sales volume.
>>>>>
>>>>> I certainly hope my fears herein this thread sensationally expressed
>>>>> are more fantasy/paranoia than the fact/reality
>>>>>
>>>>> We know that markets fluctuate, and a collapse in housing prices is not
>>>>> an implausibilty, and whatever I post/think/fear has little to no
>>>>> impact, which I suppose isn't a bad thing afterall.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> tg wrote:

>>>>>> The fall of the US will be because people read "sales fell" and think
>>>>>> it means "prices fell".
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Do you actually read the stuff you post?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> -tg
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Robert Cohen wrote:

>>>>>>> a) over-due market adjustment/correction/balance
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> b) an overall coming recession
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> c) an overall coming depression
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> d) a domino effect into b or c
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> e) collapse of the heavily debted/leveraged U.S. economic &/or
>>>>>>> financial system, massive bankruptcies, mass unemployment, chaos,
>>>>>>> horrors worse than one could envision
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> f) healthier, rational, lessening of previous go-go growth economy
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> g) the end of the affluent American way of life and return to
>>>>>>> Depression mentality
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> h) very many mortgage company & multiple banking company failures from
>>>>>>> excessive defaults/foreclosures
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> i) all the above
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The article that provokes my off-the-wall paranoia
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> http://www.latimes.com/business/la-102506homes,0,2287716.story?track=mostviewed-...
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Existing home sales drop 1/3 from '05
>>>>>>> By Jesus Sanchez, Times Staff Writer
>>>>>>> 11:48 AM PDT, October 25, 2006
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> California's housing market continued to cool in September as existing
>>>>>>> home sales sank more than 30%% from year-ago levels and the median price
>>>>>>> posted a meager increase, according to a real estate report today.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The statewide median sales prices for existing, detached homes rose
>>>>>>> 1.8%% in September from the same month last year to $553,050, according
>>>>>>> to the California Assn. of Realtors. September's price increase came
>>>>>>> after the median sank in August but is still far behind the
>>>>>>> double-digit gains homeowners enjoyed for several years.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> ADVERTISEMENTIn line with recent months, the pace of sales in September
>>>>>>> plunged from last year, when sales were at near historic highs.
>>>>>>> September sales fell 31.7%% to a seasonally adjusted, annual rate of
>>>>>>> 444,780 homes, said CAR. (The figures exclude new homes and
>>>>>>> condominiums.)
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Sales for the year are running 24%% below 2005 levels, said association
>>>>>>> chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young. It is also taking longer to sell
>>>>>>> a home, with the median number of days it took to complete a sale
>>>>>>> rising to 54 days in September from 30 days in the same month last
>>>>>>> year.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "Areas that experienced a lot of homebuilding in recent years or second
>>>>>>> home activity have experienced larger declines in sales and weaker
>>>>>>> prices than the state as a whole," Appleton-Young said in a statement.
>>>>>>> "These include Northern California, the northern wine country, the
>>>>>>> Central Valley, San Diego County and the lower desert in Southern
>>>>>>> California."
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Nationwide, total existing home sales last month slipped 14.2%% from the
>>>>>>> same month last year to a seasonally adjusted, annual rate of 6.18
>>>>>>> million units, according to the National Assn. of Realtors.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Meanwhile, the national median sales price in September dropped 2.2%%
>>>>>>> from year-ago levels to $220,000. That was the largest annual decline
>>>>>>> since the NAR began tracking sales and prices in 1969. At the current
>>>>>>> sales pace, it would take 7.3 months to sell the inventory of homes
>>>>>>> available, according to NAR.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> "High and rising inventory [of unsold homes] is killing prices," said
>>>>>>> economist Ian Shepherdson in a research note for High Frequency
>>>>>>> Economics.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>>> jesus.sanchez@latimes.com
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
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