> Here is sumthin very pertinent to our discussion via Drudge's
> tabloidish page:
>
> Note how the story/phenomena vary between the Calif story and this
> story
>
> Hey, folks, that's reality: demonstrative of the
> perceptions/dynamics/disputations of reality.
>
> http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/10/26/D8L0C4N00.html
>
> Home Price Drop Is Largest in 35 Years
> Oct 26 10:12 AM US/Eastern
>
> By MARTIN CRUTSINGER
> AP Economics Writer
>
> WASHINGTON
>
> The median price of a new home plunged in September by the largest
> amount in more than 35 years, even as the pace of sales rebounded for a
> second month.
> The Commerce Department reported that the median price for a new home
> sold in September was $217,100, a drop of 9.7 percent from September It
> was the lowest median price for a new home since September 2004 and the
> sharpest year-over-year decline since December 1970. The weakness in
> new home prices was even sharper than a 2.5 percent fall in the price
> of existing homes last month, which had been the biggest drop on
> record.
>
>
>
> The price decline for new homes came while the sales pace picked up,
> rising by 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1.075
> million homes. It marked the second consecutive increase in sales
> following three months of declines.
>
> The declines in prices served to underscore the severity of the
> correction in the once-booming housing market, which had seen sales of
> both new and existing homes soar to record levels for five consecutive
> years, propelled by the lowest mortgage rates in more than four
> decades.
>
> This year, with mortgage rates rising through midsummer, sales have
> cooled considerably, with housing expected to trim more than a
> percentage point from overall growth in the last half of the year.
>
> The debate is whether the slowdown will be enough to push the country
> into an outright recession. The Federal Reserve, recognizing the
> weakness in housing, halted a two-year string of interest rate
> increases in August and left rates unchanged for a third straight
> meeting on Wednesday.
>
> The Fed, however, gave no indication that it planned to start cutting
> rates because of the weakness in housing, saying it was still concerned
> that inflation remained too high.
>
> The 5.3 percent rise in new home sales in September followed a 3.8
> percent rise in August and was the biggest one-month gain since an 8
> percent increase in March. However, sales had fallen for three straight
> months from May through July.
>
> The rise in sales last month was led by a 23.9 percent jump in the
> West. Sales were also up 6.9 percent in the South. However, sales fell
> by 34.5 percent in the Northeast and were down 6.3 percent in the
> Midwest.
>
> In other economic news, the government said that orders to U.S.
> factories for big-ticket manufactured goods, powered by a huge jump in
> demand for commercial jetliners, soared in September by the largest
> amount in more than six years.
>
> The Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods rose by
> 7.8 percent last month to $226.7 billion. The increase followed two
> consecutive months of declines and was the biggest gain since June
> 2000.
>
> The improvement was more than triple the 2.3 percent gain that Wall
> Street had been expecting, but virtually all of the strength came from
> a giant 183.2 percent increase in orders for commercial aircraft.
> Outside of transportation, orders were up a far weaker 0.1 percent.
>
> In a third report, the Labor Department said the number of newly laid
> off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits rose by 8,000 last
> week to a seasonally adjusted 308,000. That increase was in line with
> expectations.
>
> The September 7.8 percent increase in factory orders followed declines
> of 0.1 percent in August and 2.8 percent in July. Despite last month's
> jump, analysts believe that the factory sector is slowing under the
> impact of a weakening overall economy.
>
> The economy began the year with growth at a sizzling pace of 5.6
> percent at an annual rate but saw that slow to 2.6 percent in the
> spring and analysts believe overall economic growth in the just-
> completed July-September quarter slowed even further to around 2
> percent or less. The government will report the actual third quarter
> figure on Friday.
>
> For September, transportation orders rose by 27.6 percent as the big
> jump in demand for commercial aircraft offset a 6.1 percent drop in
> orders to automakers, who have been struggling recently under the
> impact of weak sales of trucks and sport utility vehicles.
>
> The rise in commercial airplane orders had been expected, given that
> Boeing Co. booked new orders for 175 planes, up from 30 in the prior
> month.
>
>
>
> Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material
> may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> tg wrote:

>> Robert Cohen wrote:

>>> I accept your point: sales are 30 percent down, but prices apparently
>>> only slightly so far
>>>
>>> But won't the prices subsequently become much lower when people
>>> actually have to move, since the average move or turnover is every
>>> 5--7 years?
>>>
>>> I was very recently in Florida, and the definite message I get is that
>>> prices are indeed falling seemingly in more than one area of
>>> Florida--though the "percent" of price decline is ambiguous since it's
>>> such an inherently volatile market dynamic.
>>>

>>
>> I don't think prices fluctuate as much as you think, except where there
>> is extreme speculation---which might well be the case in Florida. If
>> you buy a house first to live in and them perhaps as a long-term
>> investment, what matters is L-L-L, as the real estate agents say. If
>> your neighborhood tanks, you're screwed, and if your neighborhood is
>> poor and it gets gentrified you get rich.
>>
>> What happens with overbuilt condo developments in some swamp down south
>> is very different.
>>
>> -tg
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>

>>> Of course the Florida property insurance situation has something to do
>>> with it all too.
>>>
>>> I apologize to all readers for the inadvertent distorting of
>>> prices/sales volume.
>>>
>>> I certainly hope my fears herein this thread sensationally expressed
>>> are more fantasy/paranoia than the fact/reality
>>>
>>> We know that markets fluctuate, and a collapse in housing prices is not
>>> an implausibilty, and whatever I post/think/fear has little to no
>>> impact, which I suppose isn't a bad thing afterall.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> tg wrote:

>>>> The fall of the US will be because people read "sales fell" and think
>>>> it means "prices fell".
>>>>
>>>> Do you actually read the stuff you post?
>>>>
>>>> -tg
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Robert Cohen wrote:

>>>>> a) over-due market adjustment/correction/balance
>>>>>
>>>>> b) an overall coming recession
>>>>>
>>>>> c) an overall coming depression
>>>>>
>>>>> d) a domino effect into b or c
>>>>>
>>>>> e) collapse of the heavily debted/leveraged U.S. economic &/or
>>>>> financial system, massive bankruptcies, mass unemployment, chaos,
>>>>> horrors worse than one could envision
>>>>>
>>>>> f) healthier, rational, lessening of previous go-go growth economy
>>>>>
>>>>> g) the end of the affluent American way of life and return to
>>>>> Depression mentality
>>>>>
>>>>> h) very many mortgage company & multiple banking company failures from
>>>>> excessive defaults/foreclosures
>>>>>
>>>>> i) all the above
>>>>>
>>>>> The article that provokes my off-the-wall paranoia
>>>>>
>>>>> http://www.latimes.com/business/la-102506homes,0,2287716.story?track=mostviewed-...
>>>>>
>>>>> Existing home sales drop 1/3 from '05
>>>>> By Jesus Sanchez, Times Staff Writer
>>>>> 11:48 AM PDT, October 25, 2006
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> California's housing market continued to cool in September as existing
>>>>> home sales sank more than 30%% from year-ago levels and the median price
>>>>> posted a meager increase, according to a real estate report today.
>>>>>
>>>>> The statewide median sales prices for existing, detached homes rose
>>>>> 1.8%% in September from the same month last year to $553,050, according
>>>>> to the California Assn. of Realtors. September's price increase came
>>>>> after the median sank in August but is still far behind the
>>>>> double-digit gains homeowners enjoyed for several years.
>>>>>
>>>>> ADVERTISEMENTIn line with recent months, the pace of sales in September
>>>>> plunged from last year, when sales were at near historic highs.
>>>>> September sales fell 31.7%% to a seasonally adjusted, annual rate of
>>>>> 444,780 homes, said CAR. (The figures exclude new homes and
>>>>> condominiums.)
>>>>>
>>>>> Sales for the year are running 24%% below 2005 levels, said association
>>>>> chief economist Leslie Appleton-Young. It is also taking longer to sell
>>>>> a home, with the median number of days it took to complete a sale
>>>>> rising to 54 days in September from 30 days in the same month last
>>>>> year.
>>>>>
>>>>> "Areas that experienced a lot of homebuilding in recent years or second
>>>>> home activity have experienced larger declines in sales and weaker
>>>>> prices than the state as a whole," Appleton-Young said in a statement.
>>>>> "These include Northern California, the northern wine country, the
>>>>> Central Valley, San Diego County and the lower desert in Southern
>>>>> California."
>>>>>
>>>>> Nationwide, total existing home sales last month slipped 14.2%% from the
>>>>> same month last year to a seasonally adjusted, annual rate of 6.18
>>>>> million units, according to the National Assn. of Realtors.
>>>>>
>>>>> Meanwhile, the national median sales price in September dropped 2.2%%
>>>>> from year-ago levels to $220,000. That was the largest annual decline
>>>>> since the NAR began tracking sales and prices in 1969. At the current
>>>>> sales pace, it would take 7.3 months to sell the inventory of homes
>>>>> available, according to NAR.
>>>>>
>>>>> "High and rising inventory [of unsold homes] is killing prices," said
>>>>> economist Ian Shepherdson in a research note for High Frequency
>>>>> Economics.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>> jesus.sanchez@latimes.com
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> More Business News
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>>>>> YOUR SCENE