On Thu, 26 Jun 2008 21:53:02 -0700, Joe wrote:
> On Jun 27, 12:52Â pm, Bret Cahill
aol.com> wrote:>> From 1860 to 1890 the U. S. steel industry increased in size by 1000%%
>> each decade.
>>
>> The steel wasn't being exported. Â It was consumed in the U. S.
>>
>> Trade had little to do with U. S. growth.
>>
>> If the U. S. really is in a permanent recession as many believe, then
>> the Chinese will simply sell more stuff to themselves and, like the
>> American economy of the industrial revolution, the economy of China
>> will simply continue at nearly an 8%% growth rate.
>
>
>>
>> In other words, the Chinese economy will pass the American economy in
>> size in a mere 18 years.
>>
>> Bret Cahill
>
> Thats the prediction, but I strongly disagree and am in a small
> minority that believe China will hit a brick wall as most emerging
> economies don't go straight from poverty to prosperity. And here is
> my reasoning - What is fueling Chinese growth? It is cheap labor,
> nothing more nothing less. So what happens to China when its labor
> cost are no longer competetive with other countries like Mexico, the
> Phillipines, Thailand, etc? Those jobs go elsewhere. Currently
> China's inflation rate is 8%% and Vietnam's about 20%%. Hard to see an
> economy going straight up with a serious inflation problem.
>
> America has alot of problems that can be turned around with a new
> government, but one thing America does well is commercialize new
> technologies where wealth is truly created.
The "brick wall" is the fact of overpopulation. China does not have
adequate resources for its people to live an American life style. The
Japanese seem to have developed an adequate life style even though they
want for resources. But they work harder then we do and they live in very
cramped conditions. The "quality of life" is not so good and I have never
met a Japanese person that wants to go back to Japan. The Unites States
has a very serious problem with oil, but so does China. The difference is
that the United States, once freed from the oil dependency, will kick ass
as far as life style and quality of life. Nuclear power may even up the
score somewhat but it replaces labor just as oil replaces labor. Too many
people is a drag on the life styles of all. Assuming equal technology and
innovation then the higher resource to population ratios will have a
better life style.
--
"I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers
of society but the people themselves; and
if we think them not enlightened enough to
exercise their control with a wholesome
discretion, the remedy is not to take it from
them, but to inform their discretion by
education." - Thomas Jefferson
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