On Sep 11, 6:34Â pm, "Mike Jr."
comcast.net> wrote:> On Sep 11, 2:00Â pm, Sanny
hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>>> As Global warming melting more ice and raising temperatures of sea.
>> The energy of Hurricanes is increasing every where.
>
>> Cut & Paste-------------->>>>>>>>>>
>
>> Hurricane Ike tripled in size in the central Gulf of Mexico as it
>> churned on a weekend collision course with the 5.6 million residents
>> of the Houston area, where coastal communities prepared to evacuate.
>
>> The system's strongest winds extend as far as 115 miles (185
>> kilometers) from the eye, up from 35 miles yesterday, the Miami- based
>> National Hurricane Center said today. Ike's wind field is now larger
>> than that of Katrina, the storm that devastated New Orleans in 2005,
>> said Jeff Masters, the director of meteorology at private forecaster
>> Weather Underground Inc.
>
>> ``The total amount of energy is more powerful than Katrina, so we
>> could be seeing a storm surge that could rival Katrina,'' Masters
>> said. The storm is so large ``the location doesn't matter much; it is
>> going to inundate a huge part of the Texas coast.''
>
>> Galveston, parts of southern Houston and areas south of the city and
>> near the Texas coast were under a mandatory evacuation order starting
>> at noon today, local officials said at a press conference. The coast
>> may see a storm surge of as much as 20 feet (6 meters). Ike is
>> following a track similar to the 1900 Galveston hurricane that killed
>> 8,000 people.
>
>> Felt Before Landfall
>
>> Ike was a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph, up
>> from 80 mph yesterday, the center said in an advisory at 10 a.m.
>> Houston time. Its central pressure is more like that associated with a
>> Category 3 or 4 storm, Masters said.
>
>> The storm is moving west-northwest at 10 mph, with landfall south of
>> Galveston on Sept. 13. Because of its size, Ike will be felt along the
>> Texas coast long before its eye makes landfall.
>
>> The center's forecasters said Ike may strengthen to at least a major
>> hurricane with Category 3 intensity, meaning sustained winds of at
>> least 111 mph, before landfall. Other forecasters predict Ike may
>> become a Category 4 storm, the second-strongest on the five-step
>> Saffir-Simpson scale, packing winds from 131 to 155 mph.
>
>> The storm is forecast to sweep through the center of the Gulf, missing
>> the offshore Louisiana oil and natural gas fields. The Gulf is home to
>> about a quarter of U.S. oil production. Many rigs and platforms shut
>> more than a week ago as Hurricane Gustav passed through the Gulf
>> remained closed.
>
>> Oil Production
>
>> About 96 percent of all oil production in the Gulf has been shut in
>> along with 73.1 percent of natural gas facilities, according to the
>> Minerals Management Service, a bureau of the U.S. Department of the
>> Interior.
>
>> President George W. Bush declared an emergency for Texas, his home
>> state, and Governor Rick Perry readied 1,350 buses to evacuate
>> residents in preparation for Ike's landfall. As many as 7,500 Texas
>> National Guard members are on standby.
>
>> Houston's population is 2.2 million, making it the fourth- biggest
>> U.S. city, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, and its metropolitan
>> area, with a population of 5.6 million, is the sixth-largest in the
>> U.S.
>
>> Jim Rouiller, a meteorologist with Planalytics Inc. in Wayne,
>> Pennsylvania, said he's particularly worried about storm surge damage
>> around Galveston Bay, on the coast southeast of Houston, which may be
>> in the top right quadrant of the storm field where rains and winds are
>> most powerful. Some parts of the Texas-Louisiana coast may get as much
>> as 15 inches of rain, the hurricane center said.
>
>> Biological Lab
>
>> The University of Texas Medical Branch in Galveston, home of one of
>> the most secure biological labs in the U.S., has begun evacuating its
>> 260 patients to Austin and San Antonio, spokeswoman Kristen Hensley
>> said by telephone.
>
>> The school, with about 3,500 students and faculty, will close its 84-
>> acre campus at noon. Its biological labs include a level-4 bio-safety
>> facility, which is also in the process of shutting down, Hensley
>> said.
>
>> ``It's in the strongest and most heavily reinforced building on
>> campus; it can withstand severe wind and storm surges,'' Hensley said.
>> ``We have secured all the pathogens and decontaminated all the lab
>> work surfaces.''
>
>> The lab's systems are backed up with emergency generators to provide
>> electricity in case power goes out, she said.
>
>> NASA's Johnson Space Center heeded the evacuation order, preparing to
>> shut its 1,600-acre facility in Houston that houses Mission Control
>> and the training ground for astronauts.
>
>> New Orleans
>
>> Some 15,000 people work at the space center. It sits across the street
>> from an arm of Galveston Bay.
>
>> ``Our buildings can withstand a hurricane, but there's some concern
>> about the expected tidal surge,'' said John Ira Petty, a spokesman at
>> Johnson.
>
>> Flight engineers left for Austin a few days ago. They will manage the
>> International Space Station from temporary facilities there, Petty
>> said.
>
>> The New Orleans area, including Lake Pontchartrain, was under a
>> tropical-storm warning for Ike. That means such conditions, with
>> sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph, are expected within 24 hours. The
>> warning stretches along the coast from Cameron, Louisiana, east to the
>> Mississippi-Alabama border.
>
>> New Orleans was spared the worst of Hurricane Gustav when it struck
>> the state last week. Gustav killed 25 people in Louisiana.
>
>> A hurricane watch was in place from Cameron, Louisiana, west to Port
>> Mansfield, Texas. The watch means hurricane conditions, with sustained
>> winds of at least 74 mph, are possible within 36 hours.
>
>> Cut & Paste-------------->>>>>>>>>>
>
>> So US will get more & more people killed by Hurricanes if Global
>> warming is not stopped.
>
>> Bye
>> Sanny
>
>
>
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/emanuel-qanda-0429.html
>
> "Q: How did the new results differ from your 2005 paper?
>
> A: I got mixed results. On the one hand, they backed up the
> conclusions from what we had deduced earlier from the hurricane data:
> There was a big increase in storm power over the last 25 years. On the
> other hand, when the same technique was used go forward in time, the
> increase in hurricane power was much more modest. Although we get
> variations from one model to another [of the seven global circulation
> models used in this study], even the greatest increases were no more
> than what we've already seen. So there's a dichotomy -- what you see
> going into the future is not nearly as dramatic as what you would get
> if you just extrapolate from the past.
>
> Q: How do you interpret that discrepancy?
>
> A: First, it might be because the past had little to do with global
> warming. Second, it might be because of some unknown, systematic
> errors in the climate models. Or third, less likely, the climate may
> be different in a rapidly changing world than in one that has
> equilibrated.
No good reason why this is 'less likely'. If we don't know enough
about this system, then why assume that the trend is linear?
-tg
> I don't have a good feeling as to which combination of
> these is responsible.
>
> Q: What does this say about the connection between global warming and
> hurricane power?
>
> A: Often these increases in hurricane power, thanks largely to my
> paper, are seen as directly related to global warming. But it should
> be seen as more complex than that."
>
> IMHO, the good professor walked into a storm of a different kind.
> Such is politics.
>
> --Mike Jr
