> Well, for sure, its not upta us. What we can do only relates to the local
> ecosystem we reside in, and whether we get to survive in it.
>
> The only vote you have that counts is that you do with your feet, or a
> U-Haul; move to a survivable ecosystem. Which that will be depends on both
> the local climate change, and the economic situation. So, lets start with
> the latter. We see the market volitility.
>
> So- you dont want to be in an urban area that needs lots of infrastructure
> support for survival. Lets remember that one of the things a free market
> can do is panic. Dont be in the way.
>
> The rise to Hubbard's Peak oil followed a smooth bell curve. We seem to be
> at the apex. Hominids being as they are, as the supply no longer expands
> to meet demand, the price rises. As the price rises so does the greed, and
> as that rises so do the efforts to use violence to try to control a
> source. And, unfortunately, that violence damages the infrastructure,
> which drives down production.
>
> If you drive down production, you drive up the price, the greed, the
> violence, and drive down production even further with every iteration.
> Coming off Hubbard's peak oil is not likely going to follow the same
> smooth bell curve, but drop off a cliff. End of CO2 emmissions.
>
> Now, there is another way to handle this, demonstrated not by Rome, but
> Byzantium, which shed unprofitable provinces to anarchy and barbarism, and
> then redirected critical resources to the great power centers. We can
> expect to see 2nd tier economies to also become 'failed states'.
> They wont be buying oil either. You dont want to be there.
>
> Twards the end of Jared Diamond's "Collapse" he outlines the traits of the
> regions that recover quickest. These criteria come to mind, in no
> particular order:
>
> Homogeneous populations pull together to find solutions. Ethnically
> diverse ones have demagogues arise to scapegoat minorities.
>
> Low population density means more local resources per capita.
>
> lots of timber provides both building material and firewood.
>
> Clausewitz tells armies, that when confronted with steep forested land, to
> go around it. Anyone who remembers the movie "Deliverance" has some sense
> of the terror from a few snipers who know the terrain. Either go there
> now, and get established with the locals, or dont go there later when you
> are just a target.
>
> Avoid conifer forests. Nobody will be stopping the forest fires. Tall
> hardwood canopies dont catch on fire if the brush gets going. Temperate
> zone hardwood on the slopes wont be flooded in hurricanes. Wont be burnt
> out in droughts- they simply shed their leaves like fall. If the land is
> steep, tornados get unwound when they slide down into valleys dragging on
> one valley wall or the other.
>
> Even if Global Warming produces severe drought, deep valleys will have
> springs that will flow for years. And after the jungle, cities, conifers
> and grasslands have finished burning off, the air will clear, the rate of
> climate change will slow down, and there will be places where life can
> still be decent.
>
> We saw the hurricanes; nobody thinks how, if these keep happening, there
> wont be summer droughts anymore further inland. If the ice cap melts, the
> air from the north wont be as cold so the growing season will be longer.
> Air flowing over the melted Arctic ocean will pick up moisture and then
> drop as rain.
>
> There are regions that meet more of these criteria, so saner people will
> move there. Their kids will be smarter and more self controlled, so the
> schools there will still work. Entrepreneurs will find the staffing that
> is more competent so their profits will expand and improve the stability
> of the local economy. The government will have fewer demagogues.