Bill Ward wrote:
> Phil Hays wrote:
>
>> Bill Ward wrote:
>>
>>> Phil Hays wrote:
>>>
>>>> Bill Ward wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Phil Hays wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Bill Ward wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Phil Hays wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> [...]
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> The "band saturation of CO2" doesn't seem to limit the temperature
>>>>>>>> of Venus much. And 6X CO2 isn't that far in the future, under
>>>>>>>> "business as usual". Houston isn't going to move very far. Inland
>>>>>>>> a ways, of course, as the oceans rise.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> You can explain how Venus is cool, with lot of very reflective
>>>>>>>> clouds, and "saturated bands of CO2", too bad Venus is very hot.
>>>>>>>> Facts are such stubborn things.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Yes they are. For example the relative concentration of CO2 in
>>>>>>> Earth's and Venus's atmospheres, and the difference in surface
>>>>>>> pressure and temperature. Do you even know what band saturation
>>>>>>> means?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> [...]
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Long term readers are chuckling. You snipped the context for this
>>>>>> comment, something you whine about when others do it. Amusing.
>>>>>
>>>>> I think "long term readers" can see the context is sufficient. You
>>>>> could have reposted it if you really thought any more was necessary.
>>>>> I snipped for length because I answered the other issues in another
>>>>> post. Long term readers will probably agree that if anything, I'm
>>>>> more often guilty of undersnipping than oversnipping.
>>>>
>>>> Context that you think is sufficient others might not. And you have
>>>> complained bitterly about others trimming context, so this is amusing.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>>> Key context. The temperature of the Earth can get hotter because it
>>>>>> has been hotter. That was the context snipped, as. "Band saturation"
>>>>>> was invoked to suggest that the Earth can't get hotter. Venus is
>>>>>> another good demonstration to show that hotter is really possible.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Below "band saturation", the effect of adding a greenhouse gas is
>>>>>> linear. Above "band saturation", the effect is logarithmic. In other
>>>>>> words, a similar warming for each doubling of the gas.
>>>>>
>>>>> And on Earth, combining WV and CO2, the IR bands are well into the
>>>>> log region. The surface of Venus is ~750K, vs ~300K for Earth, so to
>>>>> get to Venus temps, the earth would have to warm ~450K. At
>>>>> 1.5K/octave, that would require 450K/1.5K = 300 octave increase of
>>>>> CO2 from 400ppm. That gives 2e85%% CO2, which is Coppockian in
>>>>> magnitude, ie totally unreasonable.
>>>>
>>>> Yet Venus doesn't have 2e85 %% CO2. Best check your assumptions.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Even at 7K/octave, it would be 64 octaves or 2e15%%, which is still a
>>>>> whole lot of CO2. I may be off by a few orders of magnitude, but I
>>>>> think the point is clear.
>>>>
>>>> The point is clear, you didn't check your assumptions. Venus has about
>>>> 1e4%% CO2.
>>>
>>> IIRC, thats IPCC's assumption range, not mine. My point is it's
>>> ridiculous to compare Earth to Venus, as you did above. Unless, of
>>> course, you meant Houston, Venus.
>>
>> Same physics both places. But yes, it was ridiculous how you compared
>> Earth to Venus. That was your point, right?
>
> Nope. You invoked Venus. Archived. (Also in the first line of this
> post.)
Venus has the same physics as the Earth. However, to take the results of
modeling the Earth's climate and directly apply them to Venus is
ridiculous.
>>>>> IOW, band saturation makes it unlikely CO2 will turn the Earth into
>>>>> Venus.
>>>>
>>>> Which is your strawman, not my point.
>>>>
>>>>> Find something more plausible to scare us with.
>>>>
>>>> Like Houston, under 6X CO2, for example. Houston is pretty nasty in
>>>> summertime (outside of air-conditioning), 10 C warmer would make it
>>>> lethal. Plenty scary enough. Well within our reach to do, as well.
>>>
>>> Riight. Six times 400ppm would be 2400 ppm, or a 2000ppm increase. At
>>> 2ppm/yr, that's 1000 years worth. Wasn't it Laugh-in with the line,
>>> "Veerrry interestink............., but schtupid"?
>>
>> You said it.
>>
>> For something less "schtupid", consider that the growth rate of fossil
>> fuel usage isn't zero. Also, consider that even sub-lethal climate
>> change might not be desirable.
>
> Happens all the time. Doesn't matter whether we like it or not.
>
> Deal with it.
Past 8,000 years were very stable. We have been lucky.
Causing climate change isn't smart.
--
Phil Hays