IMHO it is too early to say who the next president will be.
The republican party is very much split, the democratic
party is also very much split, and the United Staetes is also
very much split. (Red vs. Blue states).
I would point out the primary process as it stands now is very
much unfavorable to the democrats. You have rural people in Iowa
and New Hamsphire deciding who will be next democratic candidate.
When you look at the map of who went for Kerry in 2004 and Gore
in 2000 it was in the urban areas. Not in Iowa or New Hampshire,
but by golly they'll decide who the next democratic candidate is.
What really should happen is the democratic primaries should
be held in New York City, Los Angeles, and other urban areas.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/president/
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/countymap.htm
The blue areas on this map should really decide who the democratic
candidate should be.
The bottom line here: rural voters in Iowa sabotoged the Democratic
party by selecting Kerry to run.