In
4ax.com> Barnabas Collins wrote:> From: Barnabas Collins
gmail.com>
> Newsgroups: alt.magick,alt.religion.wicca
> Subject: Re: Lotto Sorcerer
> Date: Sun, 29 Apr 2007 11:02:10 -0400
> Organization: None completely disorganized
>
> On Sat, 28 Apr 2007 22:46:37 -0500, Nevermore thestake.net>
> wrote:
> >>In
4ax.com> Barnabas Collins
>>wrote: >>> The idea of the program was each lottery had certain numbers
>>> that are drawn more often than others, every lottery has
>>> a bias towards certain numbers.
>>
>>If you ever figured out how to prove that notion you could sue your
>>lottery for fraud.
>>
>>The tickets are sold on the basis that the drawings are random.
>
> Bear in mind this notiion comes up becaus they use mechanical means
> to generate the "random" number, i.e, 40+ balls bouncing on air,
> six are dropped to choose the "random" number. The bias occurs
> because while each ball should be indentical one or more ball may
> be a fraction of ounce heavier. Or the air blown at the balls
> fails to remain constant throughout. Whatever they are drawn
> by mechanical means which can't by these indiosyncrisies be
> truly random.
For it to be NOT truly random you would have to be able to discern a
bias that made some number more likely to occur than not. There are
only, what?, forty? fifty? sixty? balls in your local lotto machine?
Each ball is its own statistical entity - it only counts if it falls
into the tube or whatever. So you should be able to run a statistical
analysis of each INDIVIDUAL ball for frequency. Then you look back
over a long enough sample of time and you determine whether that ball is
hitting STATISTICALLY more or less than it should have. Keep in mind
the people that supervisor your lottery are doing the SAME exact
analysis. If they suddenly decide that Ball 10 is falling more often,
they can examine and or replace that ball. The second they change any
single itsy-bitsy parameter like that all of YOUR calculations are
screwed because now the data history is no longer comparing apples to
apples. They can keep playing the game week after week and earning
millions but you can't go back and say there is any integrity to the
"historic" numbers at that point.
>
> Our local TV station has the drawings for the lottery, the
> numbers are not randomly genarated by computer.
If you can't discern a pattern and exploit it to PREDICTABLY win more
than you lose then you have NOT overcome the random nature of the
process.
>
> You'll notice when the daily number is drawn sometimes
> they'll point out things like one number occurred 50+
> days in the last year while another number has never
> occurred in the last year.
Why would a year's time be interesting? The only thing that matters is
the number of balls divided into the number of drawings. If they were
flipping one coin every day for a year and it never landed on heads that
would be interesting. One of fifty balls not falling in 365 days is a
probability of about 1-in-7 for any given ball any given year. Even if
you notice a trend on a particular ball not falling and you include that
ball in your picks from then on out until it falls your odds of winning
any money on the draw that it does fall and you've got it marked are
EXACTLY the same statistically as your odds are picking a random number
this afternoon.
Failure to understand that is why people sit and put millions of dollars
down slot machines and keno games at casinos when they could be playing
the more interesting table games which have only a slight house
advantage and where a certain amount of skill can improve your odds of
actually winning money as opposed to taking a pure mathematical long
shot.
>
> BTW, the last time I played the lottery was prior to
> Princes Diana's death. I don't do the lottery.
I buy one ticket at a time for the Powerball. Anything else is a tax on
stupidity.
Nevermore (I miss her terribly)
