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Venezuela Election News Roundup - Nov 30, 2006
Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit
[Only Cuba has been the recipient of such lavish media attention in
recent years. The Venezuelan election coverage in the US is mammoth,
filled with vituperation, dire warnings and fear mongering. This
news roundup is from the Venezuela Information Office. A Table of
Contents follows VIO's introductory summary. -NY Transfer]
excerpted from VIO Venezuela Daily News Roundup - Nov 30, 2006
Summary:
[Election News: Elected officials from the U.S. are serving as certified
election observers in Venezuela. Jose Alvarado, a county legislator from New
York, notes that he looks forward to learning about the voting safeguards
carried out there, since his county will be dealing with similar issues
arising from new electoral equipment. AP and the Voice of America both note
that all reputable polls, such as AP, Zogby, and Evans/McDonough, point to a
solid victory by President Hugo Chavez, and the AP article details the
extensive safeguards instituted to address concerns about the voting
process, to which rival presidential candidate Manuel Rosales has agreed in
principle, but remaining skeptical.
Getting a head start on the post-election analysis, Time Magazine ponders
the course of Venezuela's future during President Chavez's next term, while
Reuters and Forbes pick up on the U.S. Embassy's note and look at the
possibility of post-election disturbances. AP and BBC share perspectives
from members of the Venezuelan upper "middle class" who support the
opposition, noting their concerns that their economic position will
deteriorate. However, the BBC article notes that the "middle class" in
Venezuela constitutes less than 20%% of the population, while 80%% are among
working poor, thus calling into question whether "middle class" really
reflects the middle of society there.
The Miami Herald has several articles on the Venezuelan elections, ranging
from debunking the claims of President Chavez's opponents that the polls are
false, to printing op-eds that support those same claims and that refer to
"apartheid" as the self-sidelining of the opposition in the political realm,
rather than the chasm between the rich Venezuelan elite of European descent
and the vast majority of Afro-Indigenous ancestry who are only now having
access to real homes to replace their shantytowns. In addition, this
Floridian paper takes a trip to Fantasyland, printing an op-ed by a free
market think tank that accuses the Chavez administration of corruption
without citing any specific instances or cases. As a leader in the
Venezuelan opposition, the author cites another free market think thank
(Fraser Institute), a report he himself wrote for Transparency
International, and two U.N. agencies whose data three years ago supported
his economic claims, when the oil industry shutdown crippled the economy,
but who have since indicated that Venezuela has recovered.
Most importantly, the Miami Herald has an op-ed that calls on election
observerrs to declare the results unfair even if President Chavez does win a
majority of the vote, which the author acknowledges is a likely possibility.
He states that people may be "coerced" into voting for President Chavez in
order to maintain their public benefits, and accuses the President of having
an "unfair" advantage by having a program on state broadcasting media,
citing a study by a major opposition group that compared all the time the
President was mentioned or shown on the air vs. just the amount of free
advertising time given to Rosales, creating a predictably skewed and
inherently flawed contrast.
Finally, two articles on the electoral campaign: one on Manuel Rosales, the
other about his supporters in Florida; and one article on the strength of
consumer sentiment and spending in Venezuela this holiday season. -VIO]
***********
ELECTORAL PROCESS
* "Alvarado To Help Monitor Upcoming Election In Venezuela"
Westchester.com
* "Electronic vote distrusted in Venezuela" AP
* "Venezuelan Officials Promise Free, Fair Presidential Vote" VOA
POLLS
* "Venezuela Chavez 57 pct, rival 38 pct for vote: poll" Reuters
* "Anti-U.S. Chavez leads Venezuelan election race" Reuters
* "Dueling polls confuse Venezuelan voters" Miami Herald
* "Election rival disputes Chavez's big lead in polls"
[Financial Times' edited version of previous article]
* "Analysis: Venezuela deeply divided by vote" CNN
* "Tainted win awaits Chavez" Miami Herald
ANALYSIS OF ELECTION'S IMPACT
* "After the 'Battle for Latin America's Soul'" Time
* "Venezuelan election? Get your can-opener ready" Reuters
* "Post-Election Conflict Likely In Venezuela" Forbes
* "Tensions Up Ahead of Venezuela Election" AP
* "Venezuela's middle class feels the squeeze" BBC
* "Chavez win may leave Venezuela's economy vulnerable" AP
* "Chavez's corruption, unfulfilled promises" Miami Herald
ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN
* "Challenger intent on beating Chavez" AP
* "Venezuelan will bike his way to the ballot box" Miami Herald
ADDITIONAL LINKS:
"Elections-Venezuela: Christmas Shopping Comes First" IPS
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=35647
"Venezuela oil workers threaten strike if talks fail" Reuters
http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&storyID=2006-11-28T2...
*********
Westchester.com - November 30, 2006
http://westchester.com/Westchester_News/Westchester_Government_and_Politics/Alva...
Alvarado To Help Monitor Upcoming Election In Venezuela
Westchester Government News--White Plains, NY - County Legislator Jose
Alvarado (D, Yonkers) will travel to Venezuela this weekend as part of an
"electoral observer delegation" to monitor Venezuela's December 3rd
presidential election.
As impartial observers on voter security, privacy and fairness, delegation
members will be stationed at polling locations and will be present during
the vote counting process.
"Since 1998, the Venezuelan government has brought in international
observers as a way to assure voters and the global community that the
country's presidential elections are free and fair," said Alvarado. "As an
elected official myself, I know what to look for and because I'm fluent in
Spanish, I will be able to get an unfiltered account of what's going on."
Alvarado said he was selected on the basis of a questionnaire he completed
this summer while attending the National Association of Latino Elected and
Appointed Officials (NALEO) convention in Chicago. Alvarado said that Hugo
Chavez, the current Venezuelan president who is running for re-election, has
been very critical of the Bush administration and of American policies.
"Those of us who expressed an interest in being electoral observers were
screened to ensure that we could be impartial," Alvarado said. "I let them
know I'm only interested in making sure the peoples' voice and choice
prevail. Then, about a month ago, I learned that I was selected to
participate."
Alvarado noted that, under the Venezuelan constitution, there is a separate
branch of government, known as the National Electoral Council (CNE), which
oversees the entire election process, from voter registration to which
voting machines to use. "The theory behind creating the CNE was to remove
politics from the election process," Alvarado said. "As a separate branch of
government, its decisions are not influenced by the executive, legislative
and judicial branches."
According to Alvarado, observing the election will have a secondary benefit
- ---he'll get an insider's look at Venezuela's electronic voting machines,
touted by many as among the most sophisticated and secure in the world.
"Our County Board will soon be choosing which voting machine the county
should opt for in order to comply with new HAVA federal mandates," Alvarado
said. "Observing the electronic machines in full operation will provide some
great insights into voting machine technology that I'll be able to share
with my colleagues."
***
AP via The Washington Post - November 28, 2006
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/28/AR2006112800969....
Electronic Vote Distrusted in Venezuela
by Fabiola Sanchez
CARACAS, Venezuela -- Under pressure from opponents of President Hugo
Chavez, Venezuela's elections council has adopted safeguards for the
country's electronic voting machines to prevent tampering in Sunday's
election _ conditions so strict that experts say they surpass some standards
in the United States.
The opposition boycotted Venezuela's legislative elections a year ago,
saying it couldn't trust that the electronic machines would be used fairly.
But after thorough checks of hardware and software and some key concessions
by electoral officials, presidential challenger Manuel Rosales says he's
satisfied _ as long as the agreed-upon rules are respected.
In this handout photo released by CNE, election workers revise voting
machines to be used in upcoming Venezuelan presidential elections, at a
warehouse on the outskirts of Caracas in Guarenas, Venezuela, Sunday, Nov.
26, 2006. Under pressure from opponents of President Hugo Chavez,
Venezuela's elections council has adopted new safeguards for the country's
electronic voting machines to prevent tampering, conditions so strict that
independent experts say they surpass some standards in the United States.
(AP Photo/CNE, Pedro Laya)
In this handout photo released by CNE, election workers revise voting
machines to be used in upcoming Venezuelan presidential elections, at a
warehouse on the outskirts of Caracas in Guarenas, Venezuela, Sunday, Nov.
26, 2006. Under pressure from opponents of President Hugo Chavez,
Venezuela's elections council has adopted new safeguards for the country's
electronic voting machines to prevent tampering, conditions so strict that
independent experts say they surpass some standards in the United States.
(AP Photo/CNE, Pedro Laya) (Pedro Laya - AP)
"The Venezuelan people and I hope that the electoral council doesn't step
outside the rules, that it maintains impartiality," Rosales said Monday.
"I'm going to defend the transparency and the results of this process, even
if it's with my last breath."
Unlike with most U.S. electronic voting machines, Venezuelans will get paper
receipts that verify their choices were properly recorded, and must deposit
them into boxes before leaving the polls. After Sunday's vote, election
officials monitored by representatives of each candidate will count millions
of the paper receipts for comparison to the electronic totals.
Last month, they performed random hardware and software checks of 1 percent
of the machines. Officials also will keep them disconnected from the network
during the actual voting as an additional safeguard against tampering.
Digital thumbprint devices aimed at preventing the casting of multiple
ballots will be used by about 40 percent of the voters in the most populous
states and along Venezuela's borders, but in response to fears that
thumbprints could be linked to voters' choices, the National Electoral
Council says it has tweaked the software so that no record is kept of the
sequence in which thumbprints are recorded.
In the United States, only some of the electronic machines used in this
month's midterm elections provided voter-verified receipts. In general, the
machines are considered proprietary, and vendors have restricted access to
the hardware and software for independent review.
Thousands of citizens in dozens of states had problems voting, and some were
left with little confidence that their choices were properly recorded.
Chavez's opponents have been suspicious of the machines made by Boca Raton,
Florida-based Smartmatic Inc., which is primarily owned by three
Venezuelans. Smartmatic bought one of the largest U.S. voting equipment
companies, Oakland, Calif.-based Sequoia Voting Systems Inc., which is now
undergoing a Treasury Department review over what Sequoia calls baseless
allegations of potential influence by Chavez over U.S. elections.
But even prominent electronic voting critics say Venezuela appears be doing
the right things.
Avi Rubin, an electronic voting expert at Johns Hopkins University, has
shown in his laboratory how automated voting systems can have glitches and
weaknesses, and how someone could insert code to alter the results _ for
example by switching a certain number of votes for one candidate to his
opponent.
However, Rubin said, "a lot of my criticisms of these systems go away when
you look at the paper trail that's verified by the voters." If problems
emerge, authorities can perform a full manual count.
The random audit of 54 percent of the boxes containing the paper slips is
impressive, Rubin said. In the U.S., it's normal for about 2 percent of
electronic ballots to be audited, he said.
Rosales' campaign also plans to have about 1 million witnesses at voting
centers to ensure compliance, and at least one person from each of the
Rosales and Chavez camps will join in the audits.
"We are very well-prepared," said Eliceo Fermin, Rosales' chief of electoral
oversight. "We know the errors we committed in the past, we know our
weaknesses and we are on alert."
The opposition boycott of last December's elections allowed Chavez allies to
capture the entire National Assembly.
Now even the Venezuelan elections watchdog group Sumate acknowledges that
the promised safeguards are significant, President Alejandro Plaz said.
It's a stark change from 2004, when Venezuelans first used the touch-screen
machines in a recall referendum Chavez won by a wide margin. Observers said
Chavez won cleanly and opponents didn't produce hard evidence of fraud, but
some questioned the results nevertheless.
Some Venezuelans still have doubts.
"Technology can be manipulated, so I think it's good to recount the votes
manually because it's safer," said Javier Gonzalez, a 22-year-old student,
pausing to ask for help before using one of the machines in a test run
organized by electoral officials.
An AP-Ipsos poll showing Chavez with a wide lead over Rosales also showed
less than half of the 2,500 registered voters surveyed were very confident
that Venezuelan ballots are counted accurately and votes kept secret.
But electoral officials insist the count will be precise, and that voting
secrecy is assured. And Rosales urged voters not to worry, assuring them
recently that "No one will know who you voted for."
Associated Press writer Natalie Obiko Pearson contributed to this report.
***
Voice of America - November 30, 2006
http://voanews.com/english/2006-11-30-voa6.cfm
Venezuelan Officials Promise Free, Fair Presidential Vote
by Michael Bowman
Days before Venezuelans cast ballots in Sunday's presidential election,
officials are attempting to reassure the public that voting will be free and
fair. VOA's Michael Bowman reports from Caracas, many who oppose President
Hugo Chavez' reelection bid profess bitter memories from previous democratic
exercises, and say they have concerns about the current election, as well.
In his final campaign speech in Caracas, President Chavez went out of his
way to welcome international observers that will be monitoring Sunday's
balloting, and pledged to respect the final results when reported by
Venezuela's National Electoral Council.
He said, "We will have complete respect for the independence and
impartiality of our electoral arbiter. The arbiter will be recognized by the
government and the people because we support the strengthening of our
democratic institutions."
In a Caracas shopping mall, Chavez supporter Andrea Gomez says she has
absolute faith in the integrity of the vote. "The vote will be clean, I am
completely convinced of it. I have spoken with people who are involved [in
the elections] and who are impartial, and they have told me that I can be
rest assured. What is more, I am not afraid because I am completely sure of
my vote. I will vote for the president," she said.
With most polls heavily favoring the self-proclaimed socialist president,
Gomez' tranquility is, perhaps, not surprising. Yet speak to virtually any
Chavez opponent, and you get a different response.
"Conducting elections with electronic balloting systems allows the person
who controls the data to manipulate them. Can I trust the results 100
percent ? No, because I know they can be altered," said Andres Esquivel, a
computer programmer and supporter of opposition candidate Manuel Rosales.
For years, Venezuela's opposition has cried foul about the way balloting is
conducted. In 2004, the opposition alleged widespread fraud in a recall
referendum aimed at ousting Mr. Chavez from office. Official results showed
58 percent of the electorate rejecting the measure.
The following year, the opposition boycotted legislative elections, saying
the vote was a sham. As a result, Chavez allies now occupy all seats in
Venezuela's National Assembly.
Just months ago, polls showed many Chavez opponents intended to boycott this
year's presidential vote, as well. But the emergence of a strong
presidential challenger, former state governor Rosales, has breathed new
life into the opposition and prompted many to abandon thoughts of a boycott.
Yet voting concerns remain, a fact that forces the Rosales campaign to walk
a fine line. On the one hand, staffers want all Rosales supporters to show
up and cast ballots -- and therefore must appear optimistic that voting will
be free and fair. On the other hand, they cannot ignore the skepticism that
exists within their ranks.
"We have clearly stated that if conditions exist that allow us to certify
every stage of the election and we lose by just one vote, we will recognize
Chavez' victory. But if we cannot verify the results, then we cannot
recognize them," said Gerardo Blyde, a Rosales campaign advisor.
Chavez opponents well-remember that, after the 2004 referendum, the names of
many who voted to remove the president were publicly divulged. Some of those
identified later claimed to have lost their jobs, been denied credit, or
faced other forms of retribution.
Weeks ago, the head of Venezuela's state-owned oil monopoly, Energy Minister
Rafael Ramirez, was secretly videotaped telling his workers that anyone who
did not support President Chavez should resign.
What some see as intimidation tactics by the Chavez administration have
become a campaign issue for Rosales. "When I was a mayor and then governor,
nowhere was anyone asked their political affiliation or how they voted.
There was respect for the vote, and that is how it will be in Venezuela with
a new government," Rosales said at a recent campaign stop.
Venezuelan election officials insist any concerns about Sunday's
presidential vote are unwarranted. German Yepes, a director of the National
Electoral Council, says opposition representatives as well as international
observers will have complete access to every phase of the balloting process.
"There is no danger of the secrecy of the ballot box being violated. There
is no way anyone can find out who voted for whom. There is no way that the
results can be adulterated. There is no way to interfere with the
transmission of election results," he said.
Yepes adds that the National Electoral Council is investigating Energy
Minister Ramirez' directive that oil workers back the president. He says the
probe will be completed next month -- after the election.
At a Caracas coffee shop, graphic designer Fernando Hernandez shrugs when
asked about Sunday's vote. "One has to fulfill one's obligation to vote. But
the reality is that guaranteeing there will be no fraud is very difficult.
In this country, it is very difficult," he said.
***
Reuters - November 29, 2006
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=winterOlympics&storyID=2006-11...
Venezuela - Chavez 57 pct, rival 38 pct for vote: poll
CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has 57
percent support heading into Sunday's election, a 19-point lead over his
rival, according to a state-funded survey by a U.S. pollster released on
Wednesday.
Challenger Manuel Rosales's 38 percent support in the opinion survey showed
he had gained slightly on the anti-U.S. incumbent from one the pollster
published earlier this month. Still, it confirmed a trend shown by most
polls that Rosales trails far behind.
The Evans/McDonough Co. poll, which was commissioned by Venezuela's state
oil company, showed the support for the two candidates split between social
strata.
The majority poor overwhelmingly plans to vote for Chavez, while Rosales
draws his main support from the upper- and middle-classes.
Evans/McDonough surveys correctly predicted Chavez would defeat a 2004
recall referendum, while many other pollsters said the opposition would win.
***
Reuters - November 29, 2006
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/29/AR2006112901181....
Anti-U.S. Chavez leads Venezuelan election race
by Saul Hudson
CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - President Hugo Chavez commanded a wide lead
before Venezuela's election on Sunday, setting the stage for the self-styled
revolutionary to intensify his anti-U.S., leftist crusade in Latin America.
Chavez's rival Manuel Rosales, the governor of an oil- producing state in
the west of the OPEC nation, trails far behind in most polls because he has
made little headway eroding the incumbent's overwhelming support among the
majority poor.
If the polls showing Chavez has close to 60 percent support prove right, he
vows to use reelection with a strong mandate to eliminate term limits and
rule for decades atop a single-party that he wants to create from the
cacophony of groups he heads now.
Rosales, who trails by double-digits in most polls, has united a
traditionally fragmented opposition behind a disciplined, populist campaign
focused on Chavez weaknesses -- crime, unemployment and discontent with oil
giveaways to Cuba.
Rosales, a veteran politician who has defeated the government in elections
in the South American nation's most populous province of Zulia, tells voters
Chavez will make Venezuela a communist state if reelected for six more
years.
Chavez calls himself "El Comandante," Cuban leader Fidel Castro "father" and
President George W. Bush the devil.
Many poor voters idolize him for freely spending oil revenue on schools,
clinics and food hand-outs.
But he is loathed among the upper- and middle-classes as a buffoon and
authoritarian who has an increasing grip on Venezuelan institutions such as
the state oil firm and the military.
"It's completely obvious this guy wants to take us toward communism -- just
like Castro," Carlos Vera, a lawyer walking in a posh neighborhood of the
capital, said. "It seems pretty easy for him, he's got his people in control
of all the institutions."
For Chavez, he is a crusader like the 19th century hero Simon Bolivar -- who
ejected Spain from South America -- fighting to liberate the region from
U.S. "imperialism."
For his critics, including Washington, he is a threat to regional democracy
and stability, dangerously buying arms and influence with a bonanza from
record oil prices in one of the world's top crude exporters.
Backed by hard-line allies in power in Cuba and Bolivia, Chavez has
bolstered ties with more moderate leftists in Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador and
Nicaragua to form a front he says will curb U.S. interference in the region.
Despite being Venezuela's top oil customer, the United States, has battled
Chavez since he first took office in 1999 over everything from free trade to
OPEC pricing to Iran's nuclear programs.
At the United Nations in September, Chavez could not resist taking his
folksy, theatrical style to the General Assembly. He sniffed and mocked Bush
as Satan, saying the U.S. president had left the smell of sulfur at the
podium from an earlier speech.
Political analysts generally reckon Chavez, who says the election is really
between him and Bush, is so convinced the United States wants to dislodge
him, he will only become more confrontational the longer he stays in power.
NERVOUS VOTERS
Venezuelans are jittery over the election.
Although previous votes involving Chavez have sparked relatively little
violence, politics has often stoked public disorder in the polarized nation.
People are stockpiling food, water and medicine and are bombarded from
blogs, e-mails and local media with scare stories such as opponents planning
to lace drinks with laxatives so voters cannot line at polling stations for
long.
Rosales accuses Chavez of stoking fears by saying the opposition plans to
claim fraud if the incumbent wins, mobilize street protests and call on the
military to stage a coup.
As a paratrooper officer in 1992 Chavez led his own failed coup and, once in
power via the ballot box, he survived a brief putsch against him in 2002.
Rosales says he will defy the polls and Chavez says he will win by a
"knockout."
The latest opinion survey, published by U.S.-based pollster Evans/McDonough
Co. on Wednesday and funded by the state, said Chavez will win with 57
percent of the vote, compared with 38 percent for Rosales.
(Additional reporting by Enrique Andres Pretel)
***
Miami Herald - November 29, 2006
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/special_packages/5min/16119093.htm
Dueling polls confuse Venezuelan voters
by Phil Gunson
Polls offer vastly different predictions for Venezuela's presidential
election Sunday.
CARACAS - With less than a week to go before Venezuela's presidential
election, supporters of both President Hugo Chavez and his main rival,
Manuel Rosales, are confident of victory -- thanks in part to an
opinion-poll war in which the truth appears to have been the first casualty.
"I've worked a lot in elections, in different countries," said Carolina
Bescansa, a political science professor from the Complutense University in
Madrid. "But I've never seen anything like this."
There are polls to suit all tastes and political tendencies, ranging from
those that project a Chavez victory by more than 30 points in the Sunday
balloting to a dubious few that give a clear margin to Rosales, the
candidate of a broad opposition coalition.
With both the pro-government and pro-opposition media stressing polls that
show their favorites ahead and dismissing other surveys as lies and
manipulations, neutral voters have been confused and committed voters have
become convinced that only fraud can deprive their man of victory.
Instead of making honest efforts to sort out the mess, some journalists on
both sides are shamelessly partisan.
"It's impossible for Chavez to win, except by electronic fraud," columnist
and chat-show host Marianella Salazar told the weekly Quinto Dia, which
published a special feature on journalists' projections.
"If we go by the spontaneous demonstrations in the streets and at public
events, I have no doubt Manuel Rosales will win," said Maria Isabel Parraga,
who co-hosts the opposition's flagship TV and radio show Hello Citizen on
the avowedly anti-Chavez Globovision news channel.
This, despite the fact that no reputable polling company has produced a
survey giving the lead to Rosales, governor of the state of Zulia.
A number of serious polls -- including a recent one commissioned by the
Associated Press -- suggest that Sunday's result will likely be not much
different from those of 1998, 2000 and the midterm recall referendum of
2004. All were won by Chavez by a roughly 60-40 margin.
When the team led by Bescansa published a poll projecting 59.7 percent for
the president and 39.7 percent for Rosales, Hello Citizen and other
opposition programs immediately attacked them, implying they were financed
by the government.
To make matters worse, a government-financed group called Journalists for
the Truth published a paid advertisement exaggerating the results.
"They said the difference was 30 points, when we gave 20," Bescansa told The
Miami Herald. "Things are so distorted by the media that you can't trust
anything. The only polls I believe are my own."
The vice president of Journalists for the Truth, Cesar Zambrano, admitted
that Bescansa's poll did not support the 30-point claim.
"But as far as we're concerned," he said, "the support [for Chavez] is 70
percent. That's what we perceive in the street."
Zambrano also admitted the group's paid ads in the news media -- including
at least one full-color, two-page newspaper spread -- were subsidized by the
Chavez government.
Such manipulation fuels conspiracy theories among Chavez's opponents.
Alejandro Pena Esclusa, leader of a small right-wing group called Solidarity
Force, circulated via Internet a message claiming that polls giving Chavez
the lead were part of a government propaganda war.
"The majority of polls published abroad are falsified, and paid for with the
resources of the Venezuelan state," Pena Esclusa claimed. "Their aim is to
cover up the fraud that the regime plans to commit on Dec. 3."
Meanwhile, the government has pointed out that some polls suggesting a close
race were not measuring voting intention but attempting to describe the
breakdown of the electorate in terms of Chavez supporters and opponents.
The publication of polling results in the final week of the campaign is
prohibited. But falsified or misinterpreted polling data may already have
done their damage, by raising the risk of violence after the result is
announced.
Manuel Rosales has called on his supporters to "protect" their vote, and
says he will not just win but "collect" on his victory. Combined with calls
by some opposition extremists for street demonstrations if Chavez wins, this
has led to fears of an open confrontation.
When asked to explain Chavez's lead in almost all polls, some on the
opposition point to an alleged "fear factor" -- the fear of some voters to
tell pollsters they support the opposition out of concern for government
retaliations.
'The 'fear factor' may have some influence," political columnist Fausto Maso
said. 'But it's really more of a 'coercion factor' arising from an overly
powerful state. If there was a real 'fear factor,' we wouldn't see so many
people marching, demonstrating and expressing an opinion" in support of
Rosales.
***
Financial Times - November 30, 2006
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/768ae08a-8018-11db-a3be-0000779e2340.html
[Edited version of previous article]
"Election rival disputes Chavez's big lead in polls"
by Phil Gunson
With just days to go before Venezuela's presidential election, President
Hugo Chavez, Washington's principal adversary in Latin America, is holding
on to a strong lead among likely voters, according to a poll published by
the US company Evans McDonough yesterday.
But many in the opposition refuse to believe that the president can win
except by fraud, fuelling fears of possible street clashes with radical
Chavez supporters after the results are announced.
The poll, of 2,000 registered voters in 20 of the country's 24 states, was
carried out by Venezuelan polling company 30.11 Consultores between
November19-25. It shows the president leading his only seriouscontender, the
opposition "unity" candidate Manuel Rosales, by 57 points to 38. The margin
of error is 2.16 per cent.
The result is in line with most other polls published in recent weeks.
However, the opposition candidate - the centre-left governor of the western
state of Zulia - has insisted that he is leading and that the polls are
seriously underestimating his level of support.
Some opposition hard-liners have claimed that polling companies have been
bought off by the government, while others suggest that fear of reprisals by
a regime with an avowed policy of denying jobs and ser-vices to opposition
supporters has distorted the results.
Alejandro Pena Esclusa, leader of a small rightwing group called Solidarity
Force, circulated via the internet a message claiming that polls giving Mr
Chavez the lead were part of a government propaganda war.
"I've worked a lot in elections, in different countries," said Carolina
Bescansa, a political science professor from the Complutense University in
Madrid. "But I've never seen anything like this."
When a team led byMs Bescansa published a series of polls giving similar
results to those of the Evans McDonough survey, they were immediately
accused by some opposition journalists of making false claims and of working
for the Chavez government.
To make matters worse, a government-financed group called Journalists for
the Truth published a paid advertisement exaggerating their results.
"They said the difference was 30 points, when we gave 20," Ms Bescansa told
the Miami Herald. "Things are so distorted by the media that you can't trust
anything. The only polls I believe are my own."
Cesar Zambrano, the vice-president of Journalists for the Truth, admitted
that Ms Bescansa's poll did not support the 30-point claim. "But as far as
we're concerned," he said, "the support [for Chavez] is 70 per cent. That's
what we perceive in the street."
If Mr Rosales was to produce an upset, it would not be without precedent. In
several recent elections in Latin America, most recently in Ecuador last
weekend, pre-election polls have proved woefully inaccurate.
***
CNN - November 29, 2006
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/americas/11/29/tbr.venezuela/index.html
Analysis: Venezuela deeply divided by vote
by Simon Hooper
CARACAS, Venezuela (CNN) -- Caracas is not so much the city that never
sleeps, as the city that bangs on your window shouting at 3 a.m. But, with a
presidential election just days away, a tone of political hysteria can be
detected amid the constant cacophony of traffic noise and Caribbean pop.
On paper, Sunday's vote ought to be a straightforward victory for Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez over his main challenger, Manuel Rosales, the governor
of the oil-rich state of Zulia.
Most polls put support for Chavez, seeking to extend his eight-years in
government by another six years, as high as 60 percent. Yet this election is
far from straightforward. While the presidency may be the prize, campaigners
on both sides claim the soul of the country is at stake.
For years, wealthy and poor have lived in uneasy proximity in the capital of
this oil-rich country.
From luxury apartment blocks and the chaotic slums of the barrios the
privileged and the poverty-stricken stare out at one another across an
unbridgeable economic and social chasm. Now that divide is the frontline
along which the electoral battle line has been drawn.
Never one to shy from controversy or confrontation, Chavez has promised to
press forward with his "Bolivarian Revolution" if re-elected, a process
which has poured resources into the barrios, bringing healthcare and
education to millions of Venezuelans for the first time. He has even vowed
to dedicate a victory on Sunday to Cuba's ailing leader, Fidel Castro.
To his opponents though, Chavez is a dangerous demagogue intent on
undermining free speech and establishing a Cuban-style one-party state who
must be stopped at all costs.
"Chavez is like a snake-charmer," Alfonso Marquina, a leading opposition
politician, told CNN.
"A great communicator -- and a great liar also. This government is exclusive
and discriminative. Chavez is not a democrat; he doesn't care about having a
diversity of opinion."
On successive days last weekend, supporters of both Rosales and Chavez
rallied peacefully in their hundreds of thousands -- both sides claimed
millions -- in Caracas in a powerful display of the level of popular
involvement in this election.
Yet the reality is that Sunday's vote, whatever the outcome, is only likely
to further polarize a nation already dangerously split.
After eight years of Chavez's combative style of leadership and in a country
in which family relationships and job prospects are now influenced by
political affiliations, there is no longer any such thing as an undecided
voter in Venezuela.
That has left workplaces and communities -- especially those caught between
the barrios and the penthouses -- divided. Opponents of the government
accuse it of discriminating against them and claim that many public workers
who signed an opposition-orchestrated petition demanding a referendum on
Chavez's leadership in 2004 were purged from their jobs.
One woman, who refused to give her name, told CNN she had been "untouchable"
despite signing the petition after 25 years of service in public
administration. But she said her daughter's one-year contract in a public
position had not been renewed and many people were afraid to openly oppose
the government.
"People are pressed into marching at Chavez rallies," she says. "They give
them their red caps and push them to go. But a lot of people have changed
their minds about Chavez because he hasn't delivered what he promised and he
has divided our society in half."
Yet workers for private companies also admit to being pressured into taking
sides by their bosses and colleagues -- against the government.
"If you say you don't like politics, people think you are on the other
side," said Carolina Chacon. "People would rather hide in a big group. If
people are quiet and don't say a word you think: 'Oh, they must be
pro-government.'"
Supporters of the government say opposition concerns over Chavez's style of
leadership are merely the propaganda of a wealthy clique who have seen
political privileges taken from them but still find a means of expression
via the Venezuela's powerful anti-government private media contemptuous of
the president's popularity.
"We're very sorry that our opponents haven't understood the president's
message, a message of love and a message of reunion," Milarosa Hernandez
told CNN during Sunday's rally. "The president has given as much as he can
to the poor people -- as well as the rich people -- and we are sorry they
don't understand that."
What will happen after Sunday's vote is anybody's guess but, with both sides
warning their supporters to be vigilant against electoral fraud and
corruption, one thing that seems certain is that neither side is likely to
accept defeat -- or indeed victory -- graciously.
***
Miami Herald - November 30, 2006
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/columnists/16131158.htm
Tainted win awaits Chavez
by Andres Oppenheimer
The big question about Sunday's elections in Venezuela is not whether
international observers will confirm the likely victory of
narcissist-Leninist President Hugo Chavez, but whether they will denounce
the election process as unfair. They should.
Contrary to Venezuela's opposition claims that polls showing a huge Chavez
lead have been paid for by the government, I happen to believe that the
surveys may be right. Thanks to a combination of massive petrodollar cash
subsidies to the poor and one of the most sophisticated government
intimidation machines in the hemisphere, I wouldn't be surprised if Chavez
wins without a fraudulent vote count.
A poll by The Associated Press shows that 59 percent of Venezuelans say they
are likely to vote for Chavez, while 27 percent say they are likely to vote
for opposition leader Manuel Rosales. But interestingly, the same poll shows
that 57 percent of Venezuelans -- including nearly half of Chavez's
supporters -- believe that people may suffer retaliation if they vote
against the government.
For millions of Venezuela's chronically unemployed, or those working as
street vendors, Chavez's monthly cash subsidies weigh more in their voting
decisions than political repression of dissenters. And it's hard to blame
them: While many of us think that Chavez is throwing away money instead of
creating long-term wealth, Venezuela's poor have seen corrupt politicians
steal Venezuela's oil riches in the past. Now, they are saying, "better a
bird in the hand than two in the bush."
But that doesn't mean that the election process will be clean. In addition
to controlling the National Electoral Council and the Supreme Court and
having a Congress with no opposition legislators, the government has limited
Rosales to two minutes a day of advertising per television station, while
Chavez has been allowed to continue his six-hour weekend show, Alo
Presidente. Anti-Chavez watchdog groups say that Chavez has had 22 times
more TV airtime than Rosales in the past four weeks.
What's worse, Chavez has set up the biggest electronic intimidation
apparatus in the hemisphere.
In a book just out in Venezuela, entitled Apartheid of the 21st Century,
author Ana Julia Jatar argues that Venezuela may have started a new kind of
totalitarian rule: one that uses the Internet as a mechanism of political
intimidation.
Jatar, who conducted her research for the largely pro-opposition electoral
observation group S=FAmate, says that Venezuela's apartheid system has
segregated more than three million people who signed a 2004 petition for a
national referendum on Chavez's rule.
Their names were given by pro-government election authorities to a
pro-Chavez legislator, who put it on his website. Since publication of the
so-called "Maisanta list," thousands of people on the list have been laid
off from their jobs, asked to wait months for a passport or denied access to
government services.
Chavez's electronic database of oppositionists has grown since, Jatar says.
For instance, the country's tax collection agency asks merchants to register
the ID, current address and other data of every buyer of any good.
"Today, the government can cross these databases and know everything about
each of the 15 million registered voters," Jatar told me in a telephone
interview. "If you are an oppositionist and buy an expensive watch, they can
send you tax inspectors right away."
Also, many Venezuelans fear that the country's electronic voting system --
which includes fingerprinting machines -- allows the government to know how
they vote.
Earlier this week, I asked Dante Caputo, a top official of the 34-country
Organization of American States, whether OAS electoral observers in
Venezuela will judge the fairness of the process. His answer left me with
little doubt that Chavez has gone out of his way to get the world to focus
on the election result, rather than the process.
"We have received an invitation [to observe the voting] somewhat too close
to the election date: only 20 or 25 days in advance," Caputo told me.
"Obviously, analyzing the whole process with these limitations is
difficult.''
My opinion: If Chavez wins Sunday, as is likely, the OAS and EU observers
should say right in the first paragraph of their final rulings that "Chavez
won, but it wasn't a fair election." One thing is as important as the other,
and both should be stressed with equal strength.
***
Time - November 28, 2006
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1563589,00.html
After the "Battle for Latin America's Soul"
by Tim Padgett
Venezuela's poll will likely give the left a 6-4 victory in the continent's
year of elections. Now, can the two sides finally learn from each other's
policy ideas?
Hugo Chavez is back on the warpath. Venezuela's radical left-wing President
took a humbling hit at the United Nations this month when his archenemy, the
Bush Administration, blocked his bid for a Security Council seat -- a prize
for which he'd lobbied all over the world. Now, Chavez plans to get his
revolutionary groove back, not just by winning re-election on December 3,
but by destroying his U.S.-backed rival, Manuel Rosales, with a massive
landslide.
Campaigning before thousands of roaring, red T-shirted socialist youths at a
Caracas arena, Chavez leaps around the stage to the sounds of the Puerto
Rican hip-hop derivative known as "reggaeton" and Venezuela's driving gaita
music, unleashing all his raving martial thunder. "Be an army," he shouts,
"whose commandos, battalions and platoons do combat day and night until we
reduce our opponents to rubble and dust!" If, as expected, Chavez trounces
Rosales on Sunday, he can technically claim victory in his larger fight with
the U.S. -- but just barely.
This year's election season across the continent was widely billed as a
battle for Latin America's soul: Venezuela's contest is the last of a
grueling 10 presidential races since last December that pitted Washington's
globalization agenda against the more statist policies of the new Latin
American left. And with leftist economist and Chavez pal Rafael Correa
defeating conservative billionaire Alvaro Noboa in this week's Ecuador
run-off vote, a Chavez win will give the left a 6-4 edge. But the intensity
of the contest will be demonstrated elsewhere on Friday -- at the
inauguration of Mexico's conservative President-elect, Felipe Calderon.
He'll likely face angry and perhaps violent protests by supporters of the
leftist candidate he narrowly defeated last July, Andres Manuel Lopez
Obrador -- who insists that the election was stolen, and last week, in a
bizarre bit of political theater, even had himself sworn in as Mexico's
"legitimate president."
Yet for all the sound and fury it has generated, the region's near stalemate
may be a good thing: For most of the 20th century, Latin America swung
between oligarchic capitalism and populist socialism, and neither fixed the
continent's tragic gap between rich and poor. A more sensible,
European-style mix -- a Third Way -- was often discussed; but reactionaries
like Chile's Augusto Pinochet and communists like Cuba's Fidel Castro gave
it no room to breathe. Now, with democracy more entrenched in the region,
the two camps have been forced to face the fact that Latin voters prefer
fresh ideas to stale ideology -- and that they don't want the U.S. to either
invade or go home, but simply behave more respectfully south of the border.
In a recent TIME interview, Chavez himself insisted that "a third way is not
possible." But when the microphones are off, Chavez doesn't always walk his
radical talk -- in fact, it's precisely his third-way programs that have
been such a hit with the poor.
Luis Guevara, 50, is a Caracas cabbie who for decades drove wheezing,
beat-up taxis because an elitist banking system denied him the kind of small
business loan so desperately needed all over Latin America. Last year, under
a microcredit project for wannabe capitalists created by Chavez from
Venezuela's record oil windfalls, Guevara got a $15,000 loan at a reasonable
interest rate; now he owns a new Chevrolet he can use to pick up fat fares
at the airport. Guevara could care less what you call the policy: "It works
for me whatever it is."
The same even holds true for BMW dealers, who amidst the oil boom of recent
years have seen sales of their luxury autos (which can cost $100,000 in
Venezuela) jump an annual 30%%. Welcoming clients to a party at a swank
Caracas restaurant, local marketing manager Andres Haiek admits that BMW's
and Chavez's Bolivarian Revolution look compatible -- "so far," he
cautiously adds.
Mexico's Calderon, a Harvard-educated technocrat, will have to bend his own
free-market ideology to keep a bitterly divided Mexico from erupting after
he takes office. Special federal police forces have already been called in
to quell deadly riots in the poor southern state of Oaxaca. In its broader
context, the violence reflects a national backlash against the utter failure
of globalization and a fledgling democracy to address Mexico's gross
economic inequality. And that powder keg is nudging Calderon to acknowledge
that the sort of social investment and regulatory reform programs for which
he once ridiculed Lopez Obrador may not be such a bad idea. He recently
spoke favorably to TIME of major initiatives in health and education and
"reducing the power" of Mexico's gluttonous monopolies.
But the freshest notion a third way could bring to Latin America is
transparent, accountable democratic institutions. The most pressing urgency
is the need for judicial systems and police forces that can tackle
Venezuela's soaring murder rate or neutralize Mexican drug gangs so vicious
they're tossing the heads of decapitated rivals in streets and nightclubs.
"Crime," Calderon concedes, "is a battle we are losing." Among many others.
So maybe now, with the battle for Latin America's soul over, conservatives
and leftists -- and Washington -- can focus together for once on a war to
reduce the region's social and economic demons to rubble and dust.
***
Reuters - November 29, 2006
http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=winterOlympics&storyID=2006-11...
Venezuelan election? Get your can-opener ready
by Ana Isabel Martinez
CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Buy candles, fill the cupboards with cans of
tuna, batten the gates for street protests and do not accept free drinks at
the polling station -- they may be laced with laxatives.
Such preparations can only mean it is election time once again in Venezuela.
Despite most polls saying Venezuela's anti-U.S. president, Hugo Chavez,
should cruise to victory on Sunday buoyed by his free spending of an oil
bonanza, people still worry there could be riots and strikes in a close and
disputed vote.
"I think anything can happen, people are waiting for some kind of violent
outbreak," said Andrea Gonzalez, 49, who works in public relations in
well-to-do eastern Caracas. "Obviously I have been thinking about buying
groceries just in case."
The U.S. Embassy has told Americans living in the Caribbean oil state to
stockpile food, water and medicine in case of disorder after the vote but
said it had seen no indication of coming chaos.
Chavez, president since 1999 with a double-digit lead in most polls, has
accused the opposition of planning to cry fraud, mobilize street protests
and foment army revolt. Opposition candidate Manuel Rosales denies this.
An executive at one of Venezuela's main supermarket chains said sales were
20 percent higher in October than in September, fueled by frayed
pre-electoral nerves. The executive asked that neither he nor his
supermarket chain be identified.
Professors at two Caracas universities have promised to hand out grades
early to make sure classes are over for the weekend vote. Schools shut down
on Wednesday.
Pollsters say many Venezuelans may stay home on election day because they
fear fingerprint technology at ballot booths will reveal their vote and
bring reprisals. Both camps swear the vote will be secret.
Bloggers, panicky e-mails between voters and local media have been brimming
over with scare stories and conspiracy theories.
Some say that Chavez's majority poor backers will spike drinks with
laxatives at polling stations to stop Rosales supporters from standing in
long lines and will then form armed shantytown squads to quell fraud
protests by the middle-class.
There is little evidence to back up their fears but Venezuelans recall
looting and riots sparked by fuel price increases in 1989 left an official
toll of hundreds dead in the capital with NGOs estimating as many as 3,000
casualties.
But political analyst Luis Vicente Leon of the pollster Datanalisis pointed
out that fears of electoral violence can be overblown, as shown during
previous elections involving Chavez and a vote of confidence against his
rule in 2004.
"This tension is infinitely lower than before the recall referendum -- but
even then nothing happened," he said.
(Additional reporting by Brian Ellsworth)
***
Oxford Analytica via Forbes - November 29, 2006
http://www.forbes.com/business/2006/11/28/venezuela-election-chavez-biz-cx_1129oxford...
Post-Election Conflict Likely In Venezuela
The Venezuelan presidential candidates held their final campaign rallies
over the weekend. Both President Hugo Chavez and his main rival Manuel
Rosales have emphasized concerns over fraud and intimidation in the Dec. 3
election. This raises the possibility that the defeated party will not
accept the result, creating an atmosphere conducive to post-election
conflict.
Despite Rosales' ability to bring thousands to the streets, the majority of
poll surveys point to a convincing Chavez victory. They also show the
persistence of the strong divide between pro- and anti-Chavez sentiments
among the electorate:
Polls demonstrate that Chavez is on course to win a majority, but his
campaign has not penetrated the solidly anti-Chavista sector of the
electorate. However, given that this sector has always been a "minority," it
will not damage his re-election prospects.
Rosales does not appear to have extended his support beyond the minority
anti-Chavez block and into disaffected former Chavistas or wavering voters.
If the polls are an accurate reflection of voting intentions, the Rosales
campaign has been a failure. Three reasons can be highlighted, which are
unlikely to be addressed in the time remaining:
Rosales has not adequately distanced himself from the image of the
opposition as elitist and out of touch. Specifically, he has not convinced
core and wavering Chavistas.
Rosales' more recent shift to aggressive rhetoric has prevented him from
building support among a sizeable sector of the electorate exhausted by
confrontation between the government and opposition.
Rosales has repeated the mistakes of previous opposition campaigns in
focusing attention on corruption, "authoritarianism," and the use of
domestic oil receipts for alliance-building overseas.
This strategy has refocused attention on Rosales' own political past and
links to the discredited two-party system of the pre-Chavez period. The key
concerns of ordinary Venezuelans are crime, insecurity and unemployment;
Rosales has drifted away from these issues.
Despite the pessimistic assessment of Rosales' prospects, two polls go
against the mainstream trend. The Rosales team has also drawn attention to
the "fear factor." According to this argument, polls showing a strong lead
for Chavez are misleading, in that voters are unwilling to reveal their real
intentions. There may be credibility to the claim that Chavez's lead over
Rosales is narrower than reflected in the majority of polls. However, it is
unlikely that Rosales will move past Chavez.
The negative tone of the campaign has been reflected in more recent
opposition claims that the electronic voting system will be manipulated, and
that corruption of the software will ensure victory for Chavez. Technical
teams from the European Union, the Organization of American States and the
Carter Center have rejected this argument, which defines the National
Election Council as a Chavista institution. Claims of potential fraud have
raised concerns that the opposition candidate will pull out of the election
or that radical opposition elements will channel frustration with a
potential Chavez victory through recourse to mass post-election protests.
Raising fears of fraud will probably prove counter-productive for Rosales by
increasing abstention among his supporters. Questioning the credibility of
the CNE and election process will put Venezuela back onto the path of
conflict by legitimizing anti-constitutional activities, while attacks on
the legitimacy of his victory may provoke a backlash against the
"undemocratic" opposition by Chavez.
To read an extended version of this article, log on to Oxford Analytica's
Web site.
[Oxford Analytica is an independent strategic-consulting firm drawing on a
network of more than 1,000 scholar experts at Oxford and other leading
universities and research institutions around the world. For more
information, please visit
http://www.oxan.com]
***
AP via San Francisco Chronicle - Nov 29, 2006
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2006/11/29/international/i223719S33...
Tensions Up Ahead of Venezuela Election
by Fabiola Sanchez
Venezuela's leading opposition candidate called Wednesday for President Hugo
Chavez's government to play clean in Sunday's presidential election amid
signs of a widening political divide in the country.
The race has highlighted how increasingly polarized Venezuela has become,
largely along class lines, with the wealthier supporting Rosales, the poor
backing Chavez and the middle class fractured.
Shoppers are packing supermarkets to stock up on supplies, fearful that
Sunday's outcome could prompt street protests and violence.
"It has to be a clean game... If that happens, all of us will be calm,"
Manuel Rosales, governor of oil-rich Zulia state, said to The Associated
Press shortly before closing his campaign with a huge rally in Maracaibo,
Venezuela's second-largest city.
Both Rosales and Chavez have warned their supporters to be alert for fraud
and to be ready to defend the vote.
Chavez, speaking at his own rally in southeastern Trujillo state, warned
that the U.S. government was backing Rosales and would try to undermine the
election.
"If the imperialists and its lackeys try to destabilize Venezuela with
riots, they will regret it for the rest of their lives. I warn them," he
said.
The exchange of warnings came as a top lawmaker from Chavez's ruling party,
Iris Varela, called on government supporters to take over private TV
stations that report Rosales in the lead ahead of official results.
Varela said the opposition-aligned media may use rigged exit polls to show
that Rosales is ahead in order to mislead the public.
"When they start to do that, we must take over the TV channels... a peaceful
takeover as we have always done at the doors of these TV stations," she told
the state TV broadcaster in an interview, singling out two Caracas stations
in particular, Globovision and RCTV -- both highly critical of the
government.
Varela denied she was emitting a threat, saying, "we are only going to
demand they say the truth, that's it."
In Maracaibo, hundreds of thousands dancing to the pulse of reggaeton music
packed a dozen blocks along a major road in support of Rosales, who united
Venezuela's opposition movement for the first time since a crushing defeat
in a 2004 recall referendum against Chavez.
Rosales has accused Chavez of seeking to exploit divisions in order to
consolidate power, and warns the Venezuelan leader's "socialist revolution"
aims to copy Cuban President Fidel Castro's one-man communist system.
"This is not just any election. We're not deciding on a president," Rosales
told the crowd. "We're going to choose between two paths -- one side that
believes in democracy... and the other that wants to establish in Venezuela
a Castro-Cuban communist system that strips the people of freedom."
Rosales supporters cite polls showing Sunday's race will be tight, although
an independent AP-Ipsos survey and other recent polls found Chavez with a
large lead.
Monitors from the European Union, the Carter Center and the Organization of
American States will be on hand to oversee the voting.
***
BBC - November 29, 2006
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6186990.stm
Venezuela's middle class feels the squeeze
by Nathalie Malinarich
"I don't want my children to grow up in the kind of country that [President
Hugo] Chavez is creating," is a sentiment often expressed by members of
Venezuela's middle classes as the presidential poll approaches.
It is one that has led tens of thousands of Venezuelans to emigrate.
But others are determined to stay put and resist the president who they fear
will turn their country into an oil-rich version of Cuba.
While the poor and the rich - particularly, a new elite linked to the
government - are widely seen to have benefited from the current
administration and the oil bonanza, the middle classes have felt excluded
and harassed.
As one man in a Caracas suburb put it: "We have been squeezed between the
poor and the nouveau riche."
Signs of wealth are easy to find in the capital's more affluent areas, where
luxury homes are springing up and the roads are full of Hummers and Audis.
In the San Ignacio shopping centre, for example, smartly-dressed diners make
their way through the speedboats and quad bikes on sale there for a few
weeks.
A few blocks away, huge Christmas trees from Canada are being bought for
400,000 bolivares (US$190; =A386), just US$50 less than the monthly minimum
wage.
Those behind the rise in conspicuous consumption are known here as the
boli-burguesia, or Bolivarian bourgeoisie, because they are said to have
benefited from Mr Chavez's so-called "Bolivarian revolution" (named after
the 18th Century independence hero Simon Bolivar).
'Change of colours'
Political analyst Alberto Garrido says that until Mr Chavez's 1998 election,
the middle classes had been gaining ground in political spheres, mostly
because of increased access to university education.
"The polarisation you see in Venezuela does not involve the richest people
as you might expect
"Many rich people are very happy with Chavez - they have made more money
than ever.
"The traditional groups of power continue to be major power brokers - the
only difference is that some of them are now red (Mr Chavez's colour)."
Unlike the middle classes, they are not driven away by the president's
promise to deepen his "revolution" in 2007 because "they know they can just
get on their planes whenever they want", Mr Garrido says.
'Nothing worse'
One middle class man who is determined to stay and fight for change is
Arturo Merizalde, a doctor who says he had to close down his surgery in a
lower-middle class area of the capital after government policies left most
of his patients jobless.
I have always been a left-wing person. I supported Chavez the first year,
but then it became indefensible," he says. "He is not a leftist - he is a
fascist."
Mr Merizalde, who now organises rallies of 4x4 vehicles, says many of his
former colleagues are unemployed, partly because of doctors sent from Cuba
in exchange for cheap oil.
"Medical students who complete their studies can't find a place to do their
obligatory year of work in the community and they cannot graduate," he adds.
Acknowledging that President Chavez is probably the first leader to have
taken the poor into account, Mr Merizalde says he has no faith in
Venezuela's political parties. He backs the opposition because he wants the
current government out.
"Nothing can be worse than this," he says.
"I have never seen such levels of hatred in Venezuela before. There is a lot
of fear.
"Fear because being identified as anti-Chavez can cause you problems, fear
because of the high levels of insecurity and fear because of the
politicisation of education - the idea that the state 'moulds the new
republicans'," he says.
Class in decline
But Chavez supporters - including the group Clase Media en Positivo (Middle
Class Positive) - argue the middle class has been helped by the president's
social programmes.
Graphic showing changing social compositionThe group seeks to "raise
awareness of the revolutionary process" among its peers. Its president,
Titina Azuaje, has said that thanks to Mr Chavez's programmes, standards of
life have risen, and more people feel themselves to be middle class.
However, analysts say that this may be more a reflection of aspirations than
reality.
Economist and market researcher Edmond Saade says Venezuela's
socio-demographic composition has changed dramatically in the past quarter
of a century because of economic cycles tied to the price of oil, the
country's main export.
"In the 1980s, the ABCs represented 28%% of the population," Mr Saade says
citing research conducted by his firm, Datos Information Resources.
"In numeric terms, the upper and middle classes today represent 19%% of the
population.
"But if we apply the usual standards for a middle class family - one that
can send its children to private school, take a holiday a year, change the
car every four or five years and own a home - it's only 5%% of the
population.
"The other 14%% does not share the characteristics of a middle class but has
the appearance. Some of the parents may own a home, but the children when
they grow up have to stay with them, and their possibilities of consumption
and education are limited," he says.
'Lost elite'
Carlos Caraballo, one of more than 19,000 employees of the state oil firm
PDVSA sacked in 2003 during a general strike, agrees that the middle classes
"have been hard hit".
The former PDVSA communications manager says people like him have been
blacklisted. "Venezuelan companies won't employ us, neither can foreign
companies operating in Venezuela. We were taken off the social security list
- - in a way, we stopped existing."
"Not only did we lose our jobs, we lost our pensions and the money we had
paid into them over the years," says Mr Caraballo, who was in PDVSA for 22
years and now works with his wife in the spa business she set up.
"A considerable part of the country's elite was in the oil business. That
has all been lost - brilliant professionals trained in foreign universities
now form part of the diaspora," he says.
"The middle class has seen itself diminished - its spending capacity has
been severely restricted," he says.
***
AP via Miami Herald - Nov 30, 2006
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/16125864.htm
Chavez win may leave Venezuela's economy vulnerable
Venezuela is experiencing a fast-paced economic boom, but some experts
question whether the nation's policies are best for the long term.
by Natalie Obiko Pearson
Associated Press
CARACAS - Venezuelans are swilling aged whiskey, snapping up luxury cars and
treating themselves to plastic surgery in an oil-fueled spending spree
worthy of one of the fastest-growing economies in Latin America.
The bonanza belies fears of radical economic changes if President Hugo
Chavez wins another six-year term in elections Sunday and fulfills his
pledge to begin a new, more profound phase of his self-styled socialist
revolution.
Chavez has promised a sharper break with Venezuela's capitalist past and
more drastic steps to help the poor. Clothing factory owner Noel Alvarez
fears that could mean workers suddenly taking over his plant with the
government's blessing.
"Investors are nervous and uneasy," said Alvarez, who heads the
Consecomercio chamber representing some 200,000 small and medium-sized
businesses.
A survey of those businesses last month showed that despite soaring sales,
most are not hiring, expanding their businesses or making long-term
investments. Alvarez said the reasons include high crime, a lack of
confidence in the legal system and an anti-private sector "bias" in the
Chavez government.
Chavez insists he's a friend of the private sector, but his government has
taken actions that rattle investors, including seizing ranch lands it deems
idle. In recent weeks, he has threatened to nationalize Venezuela's largest
telecommunications firm for failing to pay out court-ordered pensions.
Since taking office in 1999, his government also has sharply increased
control over the oil industry and redirected central bank reserves to
finance social programs for the poor.
BOOM AND BUST
Critics call that a misguided approach that's hurting investment and is only
sustainable while Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest exporter, rides out
the oil boom. Venezuela has experienced a series of boom-and-bust cycles
when high oil prices led to a surge in spending only to have the economy
crash when prices fell.
Chavez inherited an enormous public debt from previous governments who
struggled to pay salaries and benefits to a bloated state workforce during
the oil crash of the late 1980s, but he has overseen a near doubling of the
public sector to some 2 million state employees.
Mark Weisbrot, an economist at the Washington-based Center for Economic and
Policy Research, said Chavez should be recognized for a robust economic
recovery from Venezuela's worst recession in decades, caused in large part
by a failed two-month opposition-led strike four years ago.
He noted inflation is below historical levels, tax revenue in both oil and
non-oil sectors are up, while the government has budgeted conservatively to
create a cushion against any decline in oil prices. It has based its 2007
budget on an average oil price of $29 a barrel -- far below this year's
average of $58 a barrel.
Fears of more radical changes are probably also exaggerated, Weisbrot said.
"So far there's been a lot of rhetoric, but changes have been very gradual,"
he said.
Venezuela's economy is expected to expand at least 8 percent this year, the
fastest growth in South America, according to the U.N. Economic Commission
for Latin American and the Caribbean.
Multinational oil companies mostly appear willing to keep doing business
despite tighter terms that have given the government a greater share of
profits and control.
FLOWING WITH CASH
There are other signs of an economy surging with cash: Banks are offering
loans for plastic surgery, property rentals in swanky parts of Caracas rival
those in major U.S. cities and Venezuelans have imported more than half a
billion dollars in cellular phones this year.
Chavez, however, bristles at Venezuela's consumption boom, which he calls a
symptom of a society corrupted by capitalist values.
"There will be no socialism unless every one of us has... soaked ourselves
to the marrow with socialist values," Chavez lectured in one televised
speech. "We have to reflect on the way we're consuming."
"I was looking at the costs of whiskey imports... exorbitant. We're one of
the top consumers of whiskey in the world. What is this?" Chavez said, as he
announced new tariffs on whiskey, pearls and other items.
BEWARE OF BARBIE
With Christmas shoppers packing Caracas malls, Chavez has even urged
Venezuelans to steer clear of Barbie dolls, saying such American-made toys
are "making our children stupid."
Beneath the spending extravaganza, however, there are signs of deeper
problems. Government price controls have caused sporadic shortages of
staples like milk and sugar. The U.S. dollar hit a record on Venezuela's
black market last week -- the latest indication that strict currency
controls imposed in 2003 have failed to stem capital flight or demand for
the greenback.
One study shows Venezuelans are funneling their savings out of the country
faster than in the previous four decades before Chavez came to power:
Roughly $66 billion fled abroad between 1999-2005 compared to $112 billion
- -- adjusted for inflation -- between 1950-1999, according to Emilio
Medina-Smith, an economist at Venezuela's University of Carabobo who used
traditional World Bank methods for his calculations.
Venezuelans, Medina-Smith notes, have always been prone to taking their
money abroad. But he adds: "Now there's an additional ingredient --
political insecurity. That's turned what was a small malaise into a
pneumonia."
***
Miami Herald - November 30, 2006
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/opinion/16127369.htm
Chavez's corruption, unfulfilled promises
by Gustavo Coronel
As Sunday's presidential election draws near, Venezuelans and their
neighbors would do well to compare Hugo Chavez's record to his rhetoric. In
1998, Chavez capitalized on public frustration and ran for the presidency on
a strong anti-corruption platform, defeating Henrique Salas Romer, former
governor of the state of Carabobo, an excellent public manager but perceived
as an elitist. Eight years later, Chavez's promises remain unfulfilled, and
democracy has given way to an authoritarian regime in which the electoral
system is totally under his control.
Voting machines are controlled by a company, Smartmatic, with a murky
history.
The Board of Directors of the Electoral Council is made up of Chavez's
followers.
The electoral registry is highly unreliable; 39,000 voters are more than 100
years old -- one woman appears to be 175 -- and 62 persons share the same
name and birth date: Jose Gregorio Rodriguez Gonzalez, born April 8, 1962.
Thanks to a combination of record oil income and minimal government
transparency, Venezuelan corruption is at an all-time high. By incurring
significant new national debt, Chavez obtained some $25 billion in fresh
money to spend at his whim. That and oil sales have put more than $200
billion into government coffers, but there is very little to show for it in
the way of public works or effective social programs.
Anti-American revolution
The bulk of the money remains unaccounted for, largely wasted or pocketed by
bureaucrats and private buccaneers. Chavez squanders money abroad to acquire
weapons and export his military-driven, anti-American revolution and, at
home, on political propaganda and populist social programs based on direct
handouts to the poor.
Since 2003, expenditures and foreign financial commitments have eaten up
close to $30 billion. Venezuela has purchased about $5 billion of weapons
from Russia, Spain and other countries; more than $3 billion in bonds from
Argentina; and spent about $20 billion in oil subsidies, donations and
promises of programs for other countries in the region, notably Cuba and
Bolivia.
And Chavez's misguided effort to challenge U.S. influence in Latin America
has only cost Venezuelans money. Since 2000, Venezuela has been providing
oil to the Cuban government at subsidies of about $2.2 billion per year.
Similarly, Chavez's unsuccessful campaign for a seat on the U.N. Security
Council cost Venezuela more than $1 billion in financial commitments to
governments from which he solicited support.
Chavez has focused domestic spending on consolidating his political power.
The government has given massive handouts through the so-called Misiones,
social programs that provide Venezuelans an illusion of well-being at the
expense of long-term, structural programs in education and health. Chavez
has misused Venezuelan Central Bank funds, accepted illegal foreign
financing for his presidential campaign, awarded government contracts
without competition and allowed the state-owned petroleum company to
deteriorate.
Corruption involves government ministers, Supreme Tribunal of Justice
magistrates, Electoral Council directors, state governors, government
lawyers, military officers and bankers and industrialists friendly to the
government.
At least three parallel government budgets exist today, only one of which is
formal and subjected to "scrutiny" by a National Assembly, which is made up
entirely of Chavez followers. The other two budgets are controlled directly
by Chavez himself. The lack of transparency and accountability, the absence
of institutional checks and balances and the mediocrity of the top
bureaucracy have enabled high levels of corruption.
He won't give up power
The results of this tragic situation are clear: Despite its gigantic oil
income, Venezuela stands today at the bottom of the development ladder in
Latin America. Rankings of international organizations such as Transparency
International's Corruption Perception Index, the Fraser Institute's Economic
Freedom of the World report, the U.N. Human Development Index and the U.N.
Food and Agriculture Organization show the country in a declining trend.
On the eve of the presidential election, popular trust in the Venezuelan
electoral system is so diminished and the magnitude of the crimes committed
by Chavez has been so great that the opposition fears that Chavez will not
give up power if he is defeated.
Chavez promised to purge corruption, but it has dominated his government
more than any other in Venezuela's history. If the votes don't add up in his
favor on Sunday, odds are he'll keep adding them until they do.
Gustavo Coronel was a member of the Board of Directors of Petroleos de
Venezuela (1976-79) and the Venezuelan representative to Transparency
International (1996-2000). He is the author of a new Cato Institute study,
"Corruption, Mismanagement and Abuse of Power in Hugo Chavez's
Venezuela."Cato Institute:
http://www.cato.org
***
AP via So.Florida Sun-Sentinel - November 29, 2006
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/caribbean/sfl-hvenrosales29nov29,0,1168547...
Challenger Intent on Beating Chavez
by Christopher Toothaker
The best hope for many Venezuelans fed up with what they see as increasingly
autocratic rule under President Hugo Chavez may be a gravelly voiced
political veteran with a reputation for boldness and grit.
On the campaign trail, Manuel Rosales pumps his fists in the air, provoking
screams of near-religious fervor from thousands of exuberant supporters.
The gray-haired 53-year-old has managed to galvanize the fractured
opposition as its unity candidate to face Chavez in Sunday's elections, and
is drawing giant crowds even though he trails the incumbent in opinion
polls.
"Democracy is at risk with this government, and Venezuelans need to unite to
defend it," Rosales said, accusing Chavez of wanting to be
president-for-life like his friend Fidel Castro of Cuba.
Rosales gets his message out forcefully through private Venezuelan TV
stations and newspapers that carry a steady stream of Chavez criticism. He
gets limited coverage on state television, which sometimes interrupts his
speeches or films them from odd or unflattering angles.
Billboards for Rosales show him surging through campaign crowds and bear the
slogan "Dare to change!" But Chavez billboards are much more numerous, and
the opposition has complained that when Chavez seizes the airwaves to speak
for hours, it amounts to an unfair campaign practice.
Rosales, who temporarily stepped down as governor of the western state of
Zulia to run, is one of just a handful of opposition politicians to remain a
regional powerbroker in defiance of the pro-Chavez tide. He was one of only
two non-Chavistas to win governor's races in elections two years ago.
And while he has many middle- and upper-class supporters, Rosales has sought
to make inroads among Chavez's traditional support base -- the poor.
He strongly criticizes what he calls handout social programs at the heart of
Chavez's populist agenda, saying money is tossed about to secure political
patronage. Instead, Rosales proposes creating a state-issued debit card to
directly distribute one-fifth of Venezuela's oil income among the country's
poorest families.
Many Venezuelans say the candidate, a cattle rancher who has been active in
politics for three decades, lacks Chavez's charisma.
But in Venezuela's highly polarized society, this former mayor of Maracaibo,
the country's second-largest city, has seen the campaign take on religious
overtones.
At rallies, supporters press wooden crosses or figurines of Christ into
Rosales' hands. Others give him pictures of saints or bottles of holy water
- -- displays of devotion also common among followers of Chavez, who often
invokes Jesus as an inspiration.
When Rosales walks through crowds, supporters often try to push past
security guards to shake his hand, hug or kiss him.
"He's the only hope we have to get rid of this government. That's why we
love him," said Roselyn Fuentes, one of tens of thousands who joined a
campaign march across Caracas.
"Take a look at this," Rosales said while riding in a sport-utility vehicle
after a campaign stop, rolling up his sleeves to reveal bruises and
scratches on his forearms. "That's the affection of the people."
Chavez avoids referring to Rosales by name, often calling him the
"ex-governor" and depicting him as a U.S. pawn.
Rosales denies any links to Washington.
***
Miami Herald - November 29, 2006
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/local/16118975.htm
Venezuelan will bike his way to the ballot box
by Casey Woods
A Venezuelan will ride his bike from Orlando to Miami to vote in his
country's Sunday elections in an attempt to energize his compatriots to head
to the polls.
With presidential elections approaching, the Venezuelan opposition has been
fervent in its message to expatriate Venezuelans that no matter how, no
matter where, they need to vote.
Jose Luis Unamuno is going to walk that talk -- well, more like cycle his
way to the ballot. The Venezuelan will be making the 240-mile trek on his
bicycle from his Orlando-area home to the Miami voting site for expats.
Like the opposition forces that have gathered around candidate Manuel
Rosales, Unamuno's passionate commitment is driven by a deep desire to oust
controversial President Hugo Chavez.
"I want to show that it's important to go out and vote, because if the
abstention hadn't been so high in the last elections we wouldn't have
Chavez," said Unamuno, 46. "You have to make sacrifices, because my country
deserves this and much more."
At least one other Venezuelan has committed to do the entire ride with
Unamuno, and several more are considering it -- including a group of
motorcycle enthusiasts. South Florida Venezuelans are gathering a group to
ride the last leg of Unamuno's three-day trek from Weston to the Orange
Bowl, where they then will cast their votes. Five buses full of Venezuelans
coming from Orlando to vote are scheduled to join the biker caravan before
they arrive in Miami.
Local activists hope Unamuno will serve as a symbol for South Florida's
Venezuelan community.
'He's saying to Venezuelans, 'If I am going to come pedaling from Orlando to
vote, then why aren't you going to go vote if you can just get in your car
and drive from your house?' " said Ernesto Ackerman, president of the
Miami-based Independent Venezuelan-American Citizens, which forms part of a
local coalition of opposition groups.
"That's his message, that people should vote."
Unamuno said he left his home in northern Venezuela three years ago, after
his involvement in anti-Chavez protests led him to fear for his family's
security, and for the future of his farm. Although he is trained as an
agronomist, he now works as a pharmacy clerk and deliveryman.
Chavez, a leftist, has used the country's vast oil wealth to both fund
dozens of social programs for the Venezuelan poor and to curry favor with
other countries through sales of discounted oil. He is an outspoken critic
of the Bush administration, and has allied himself with Cuba's communist
leader, Fidel Castro.
The opposition against him has been fractured for the past several years,
though many opposition groups united recently to back Rosales, the governor
of the oil-rich state of Zulia.
Unamuno's ride will begin at sunrise on Friday, next to Lake Eola in
downtown Orlando. There, Unamuno, his riding companion Carlos Garzon, and a
small group of family and supporters will drape flowers on a statue of
19th-century Latin American liberator Simon Bolivar before the bikers begin
their journey.
The three-day trip will take them on a winding back-roads course through
towns such as Yeehaw Junction and Pahokee. One of Unamuno's sons will follow
as an escort, in a truck packed with replacement bikes and equipment.
Unamuno initially thought to take a more biblical route to the Orange Bowl.
"I was going to walk," he said. "But then a friend of mine told me I was
crazy."
Instead, he bought a $25 bike in a garage sale, and began planning his ride.
An avid athlete, he has trained virtually every day for the last month and a
half, building up to 190-mile test runs over the last two weekends.
His riding partner, Garzon, has more extensive experience with long rides.
The 23-year-old student is a disciplined triathlete who regularly competes
in adventure races.
Garzon, who attends the University of North Florida in Jacksonville, heard
about Unamuno's ride on the radio.
'They were talking about a man who was going to 'ride two wheels for
freedom,' " Garzon said. "I decided to do this because it's a way to show my
devotion to my country."
*
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