Re: US political futures domestic
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Re: US political futures domestic         

Group: alt.history.future · Group Profile
Author: Suzanne Blom
Date: Jun 16, 2008 09:26

"David Friedman" daviddfriedman.nopsam.com> wrote in message
news:ddfr-A4875F.20084014062008@CA.NEWS.VERIO.NET...
> In article ,
> "Suzanne Blom" execpc.com> wrote:
>
>> "David Friedman" daviddfriedman.nopsam.com> wrote in message
>> news:ddfr-05D174.09492514062008@CA.NEWS.VERIO.NET...
>>> In article ,
>>> "Suzanne Blom" execpc.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>>> When have I confidently asserted a historical fact on the basis of a
>>>>> single article offering a conjectural explanation of something?
>>>>>
>>>> Global warming, author Critchon--oops! can't get that spelling right.
>>>
>>> Perhaps you could point at me doing it? Bare assertion without evidence
>>> isn't any more convincing in this context than in the other.
>>>
>> Probably I could. I'm surprised you don't remember, tho. It wasn't that
>> long ago. As soon as I have the spare time, I'll hunt it up.
>
> I wouldn't be astonished if I said something referring to a piece by
> Michael Crichton--I have a vague memory of such, although I think quite
> a while back. I would be surprised if I confidently asserted a
> historical fact on the basis of such a piece, which was your claim.
>
> A quick google search locates the discussion in December of 2005. The
> relevant bit starts with my writing:
>
> ---
> I think the starting point is to note:
>
> 1. Climate is a very complicated subject, not very well understood.
>
> 2. Lots of people talking about global warming, on all sides of the
> subject, have axes to grind.
>
> There's an interesting talk by Michael Crichton webbed at:
>
> http://www.crichton-official.com/speeches/speeches_quote04.html
>
> Most of it is relevant to my point 2, and focusses on the idea of
> "consensus science," but he gets to global warming near the end.
>
> ----
> Looking down the thread, I find people rejecting Crichton's argument on
> the basis that he isn't an authority without commenting on what he
> actually said, and my criticizing that approach.
>
> Various other people attacked Crichton without, apparently, having read
> what he said, since they were attributing to him claims he didn't make
> and ignoring the claim he did make, as I pointed out.
>
> Having read quite a ways down the thread, I cannot find anything that
> could be described as my confidently asserting a historical fact on the
> basis of Crichton's speech. Perhaps you can, but I doubt it.
>
> One of the ways in which I try to judge sources of information, online
> or off, is by looking at places where their assertions overlap with my
> own knowledge. If you can't be trusted to give anything close to an
> accurate account of my past posts, I'm not inclined to take seriously
> your assertions about global warming, given that all you are willing to
> offer are assertions, not evidence.

Yesterday morning I had figured out what I really wanted to say about the
evidence being presented instead of what I was saying (There's a reason my
novels & stories take years to complete) &, of course, my internet
connection was down. Okay, James has given me a page of raw data. I have
read enough to know that raw data is nearly useless without background.
Ptolemy's perfect circles with Earth at the center without stood over a
thousand years of scrutiny, for instance. So I expressed my skepticism,
badly. James & you then asked for refuting information. I pointed vaguely
to lots of data that had been interpreted by people who understand this
stuff far better than any of us; & I understood James & you to say that
since the data was interpreted in a way you did not like, the raw figures
were better. Um, probably not. Not certainly enough to make me want to
give you more concrete cites since you are clearly picking & choosing which
data to believe on other than its likely evidential value thus making the
exercise fruitless.

It's quite possible that your
> position is correct, but your saying it is isn't much reason to think so.
>
Oh, I agree with that. However, this should also give you an idea of how
you are perceived by the people you talk to. You come across as doctrinaire
& inflexible even when you are or think you are being otherwise. I
remembered as I said.
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