The Light Before the Dawn

By Stirling Newberry
Created Nov 28 2006 - 11:11pm

The Arabs call it wolf's tail - that greying touch of light before there is
light - and so it is with political coalitions. Jefferson's first election
in 1800 nearly did not happen - the Federalists took advantage of a flaw in
the electoral system of the time, which left Jefferson and Burr with the
same number of electoral votes, and threw the election to Congress. It took
36 votes to select Jefferson as President, and it ushered in as close to a
one party era as America has had. The Federalists disintegrated. So it was
too with both Republican eras of Presidential dominace - the began with
Licoln and Nixon as 40%% Presidents. One might even stretch and say that
Wilson, rather than FDR, began the liberal era, and Wilson was only
President by grace in a cataclysmic split in the Republican Party.

Dynasties often grow from a very divided electorate.

The recent Congressional elections represent an 11%% shift in the two party
vote for Congress in only 4 years, and an 8%% shift in two years. Since I was
almost alone in arguing for years that the Democratic Party would not take
back the house in a narrow election - since as the field gets narrower and
narrower, fewer and fewer voters realize that they are voting on the control
of the House - but would be a wave election, it does not surprise me that
this was the year were there were large numbers of close races, and many
more of them fell to the Democratic Party. It was still razor thin - a few
thousand voters in Montana and Virginia could have kept the Republicans in
control of the Senate.

But as with the other close elections, it gives one party a reason to seek a
chance to govern. The question is, which conversation do they listen to? The
media conversation? Or the public one?

The media narrative about Speaker-Elect Nancy Pelosi is as good a place to
start as any. Consider that in March the Democratic Congress had a job
approval number in the 20s. That's the territory where people get thrown out
of windows. Since the election it has bounced up to the mid 30's, and in
head to head contests against George Bush, on every issue save terrorism,
people trust the Democratic Congress on the issue more. And Bush wins
terrorism by 1%%.

Clearly the public conversation is slowly changing its direction, and coming
to a new sense of what the Democratic Congress means. This is matched by
Speaker Pelosi's own rise in public standing. She now has a job to do, and
she is doing it. Having worked her way through delicate problems, and made
clear choices - the first to be loyal to Rep. Murtha, the second to make
sure that a very sensitive committee would be in the right hands - the
public is not treating her as someone who does not belong in power, but, on
the contrary, is willing to give her time to work her way into power.

Contrast this with media narrative which is trying to cast her as "too
liberal" and "out of the mainstream." Contrast this with the media narrative
that the Democratic Party is flailing about [1]. That isn't what the country
believes. The reality is that media people, broadcast or blogging, live on
the emotional roller coaster, and want closer cause and effect that the
public is. The public gives people time. They gave Bush 6 years to pull it
together, and have now as soundly rejected him as they had previously
embraced him.

The public's speed of decision making - for better or for worse - is more
deliberate, and indeed, deliberative - than the image and reaction, stimulus
and response world that is the media.

This means that the Democratic Congress, particularly the parliamentary
house, should set its sites on the state of affairs two years from now,
because that is when the time of reckoning will come. Senators have six
years to find themselves, not so the new freshman class and fledgling
leadership cadre. It should also have faith that Americans are a people of
belief [2] and not simply animals wired to the media cage.

Nancy Pelosi is not a creature of the media, she comes out of paleo-politics
in her background, and her rise to power has been through the web of
relationships that make up the world of the Washington inner beltway. What
is not obvious to the beltway media is that the public senses that she
believes, and they are as willing to give her world view a chance to work
its way through the system as they were to give George W. Bush a chance.
While the White House looks for fixers and front men to cover over a change
in direction measured in fractions of a degree, and appeases the gods of
Sunday Morning Television - Pelosi is being given a parting of the Red Sea
moment to speak directly to the public. She, and every other member of the
House leadership team, has been absolutely confident in delivering on their
first promises. This is a stark contrast to the Republican "Contract with
America", which while it had more electoral effect, was almost forgotten
once in office. Pelosi is setting the table as someone who does not promise
what she cannot deliver. There are no quick fixes in her early program,
though there are some needed shots in the arm to Americans who work.

Such moments, when a politician can cut through the gridlock and beltway
bubble, and create a direct connection to the public are rare. Bush used
such a moment to end run the constitution, using almost a chant in the
nightmare sleep of 2002 to drag people to war. Clinton had such a moment
when, being torn apart by a witch hunt - spoke directly to the people about
how he was doing the job they elected him to do. Right now there are a host
of entrenched interests that have risen up to protect the worst of what has
been done by the worst Congress since the late 1920's - the very actions
which the public cannot abide. Pelosi can turn impossibilities into
inevitabilities by harvesting a genuine populist sentiment, to tell the
public "we do this because you know it is right".

While media savvy could help, while better handling of the television lens
could help - these are frills compared to the more brutal political work of
drawing the public's anger to a boil, and using this to cook the
conservative era's goose. This is not faux or fake - the public may not know
what the cure is, but they always know where it hurts. And doing something
to ease those hurts, as the body politic sorts out the more complex problem
of finding a way of cleaning the augean stables, is both good policy and
good politics.

The media is going to portray her as Tom DeLay with botox, and alternately
as a flower child from Haight-Ashbury, or perhaps a dithering old woman, or
perhaps... well there is no shortage of fake news to put on cable. None of
these narratives matter so long as Pelosi realizes that stature is her best
weapon, and that credibility brings stature. That every day, Bush shrinks a
bit, as another gasket blows on the old ponyhawk engine. And every day that
she can deliver, is another day that her stature grows by a small amount.
The stature gap will then feed on itself - Bush now looks much older than
when he first ran, and, pressured by ill will and ill repute - two weights
that hang heavily on him like a heavy coat on a hot day - he is hunching,
shambling and shrinking. He is becoming an old man before the public's eyes.

If those who are supporters of the progressive movement want to help this
task along, then patiently explaining the obstacles that are in the path of
any one who would bring about positive change is in order. It is important
to begin highlighting how Speaker-Elect Pelosi has already accomplished four
important tasks that seemed impossible just a year ago.

First, it was the team of her and Rep. Murtha that changed the debate on
Iraq from "how do we stay in?" to "how do we get out?" Now it is a common
place - even Senator Warner of Virginia admits that there needs to be a new
policy in Iraq that ends with an exit. Then, it was a rupture.

Second, she led the caucus in opposition to win the House. A feat that was
considered impossible a year ago because of "gerrymandering and structural
advantages". By avoiding disaster, widening the playing field and staying
focused on Iraq - something that many progressive candidates did not do,
Pelosi made sure that on election day, there was no reason to vote against
her as the new Speaker.

Third, she has produced far more party discipline than the caucus has
previously seen. Even the Blue Dog Democrats aren't lifting their hind legs
at every fire hydrant. This is the fruit of message discipline and focusing
on what can be delivered. By keeping the list short, sweet and simple, there
is no reason for any Democrat in any district to defect. From Ike Skelton of
Missouri to John Conyers of Michigan.

Fourth, she has managed to throw a life line to the public. This too is
crucial. For almost a year the public has been told that nothing needs to be
done about the economy or the war. That this was "the Rodney Dangerfield"
economy that got no respect, in the phrase of the Wall Street Journal
Editorial Page. Today Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke admitted the
economy was slowing "as expected" and that inflation was still too high.
Clearly he believes that the economy isn't swimmingly good. By giving
telling the public "no, you aren't crazy, the economy doesn't feel good",
she gave the public a sense of focus.

As I pointed out before the election, the states and the House are where the
governing action is, because it is there that there is an unhindered path
from conception to execution. Nancy Pelosi has the makings of a great
speaker, because great Speakers are not generally flashy, but, instead, are
characters, with their own way of doing things and relying heavily on
instinct to get things done. There is no way to know 435 people and their
minds, only to sense where they are as a mob or a group or a team, depending
on the moment. No one person in the country has more ability to get real
results for real people in real time, than Nancy Pelosi.

The public has a sense of that, and they aren't going to decide who Nancy
Pelosi is based on a few stories thrown together by reporters who were,
until lately, backing the wrong four legged animal in the race to a
majority. In fact, if the attempt continues, the media may well find that it
is the target of a backlash, as the people side with the people's house and
firmly tell the talking heads "Do you mind? We are trying to get something
done here."

_______

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"A little patience and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their
spells dissolve, and the people recovering their true sight, restore their
government to its true principles. It is true that in the meantime we are
suffering deeply in spirit,
and incurring the horrors of a war and long oppressions of enormous public
debt. But if the game runs sometimes against us at home we must have
patience till luck turns, and then we shall have an opportunity of winning
back the principles we have lost, for this is a game where principles are at
stake."
-Thomas Jefferson