Latest Senate-Race Polling and Musings
By Bob Geiger
Created Oct 20 2006 - 12:26pm
It's hard to believe that it's almost November 7 but here's my latest notes
and random thoughts on the hot Senate races.

Races that are hereby over: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada,
Pennsylvania and Washington. Jim Pederson simply did not begin soon enough
at beating Arizona Republican Jon Kyl over the head about the minimum wage
and his ties to the big pharmaceutical companies. Pederson finally did, but
too late to overcome the natural incumbent edge. And, in Nevada, Democrat
Jack Carter never really did get any traction in unseating the GOP's John
Ensign.

But, if you can find a Republican arrogant and dumb enough to place a
wager -- and that shouldn't be hard to do -- put the rent money on Debbie
Stabenow (MI), Amy Klobuchar (MN), Bob Casey (PA) or Maria Cantwell
(WA).Those are done.

Look out Hillary Clinton. Pollster.com's [1] average of the last five major
polls has Republican challenger John Spencer pulling to within 30 points.

And then there's the really big ones. It's closer than we would like, but
Ben Cardin still takes out Michael Steele in Maryland and Montana Democrat
Jon Tester ends the pain and embarrassment for Big Sky Country residents and
puts GOP goofball Conrad Burns out to pasture. Robert Menendez will win in
New Jersey and I suspect by more than the polls have been suggesting.

Hello Senator Sherrod Brown from Ohio -- Republican Mike DeWine starts his
new lobbying job with [insert GOP donor name here] in January.

I've just got a good feeling about the amazing campaign that's been waged by
Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee. And the five-poll average from Pollster.com
has Sheldon Whitehouse up by an average of six points over Republican
Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island. The interesting nugget in the Rhode Island
race is that the recent Rhode Island College poll still had a huge 23
percent listed as "undecided." In this race, that makes sense and it's also
why Democrats should stay focused and not underestimate Chafee.

As for Connecticut.. Sigh. My heart and head fight over this one every day.
And I have dark, bad thoughts about Joe Lieberman that I never thought I
would have for another Democrat -- sorry, ex-Democrat. This race is a
mystery at this point. Lieberman's up significantly in the polls but I
simply believe that way more real Democrats are going to show up on election
day and that Lamont will win a tight victory.

Races that will make us all stay up into the wee hours of the November 8
morning: Virginia and Missouri. George Felix Allen is ahead in almost every
poll and has way more money that Democrat Jim Webb, but it's very hard to
get a grip on what will really happen with this on election night.

In Missouri, Democrat Claire McCaskill and incumbent Jim Talent are locked
up tighter than Duke Cunningham's private prison shower room, with almost
every poll showing one or the other with a very slim lead. Do they use
Diebold machines in Missouri? One more thing about this race: Don't believe
any poll that shows either candidate with a big lead -- like the SurveyUSA
poll giving McCaskill a nine-point edge over Talent. The reality is, that
this is a dead heat and all Democrats need to turn out.

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"A little patience and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their
spells dissolve, and the people recovering their true sight, restore their
government to its true principles. It is true that in the meantime we are
suffering deeply in spirit,
and incurring the horrors of a war and long oppressions of enormous public
debt. But if the game runs sometimes against us at home we must have
patience till luck turns, and then we shall have an opportunity of winning
back the principles we have lost, for this is a game where principles are at
stake."
-Thomas Jefferson