Death Watch in the Persian Gulf and Washington

By Dave Lindorff
Created Jan 17 2007 - 9:19am

Watching the slow-motion march to war against Iran is a bit like watching a
terminal cancer patient in a hospice. We know how it's going to end. We know
it's going to be tragic and ugly. But we are powerless to stop it.

There is a difference of course.

For the cancer patient, there really is no alternative.

For us, there is an alternative to the catastrophe which President Bush and
his regent, Dick Cheney, are preparing for us all.

We could rise up as a nation and demand that our elected representatives
pass a Boland-type amendment banning any use of the military in Iraq. We
could demand that a resolution be passed revoking the 2002 Authorization for
Use of Military Force against Iraq. We could demand the revocation of the
2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force which the president has
improperly cited as giving him extra-Constitutional powers. And we could
demand that Congress tell the president and vice president that if they
attack Iran without explicit congressional authorization they will both be
immediately impeached.

The votes could be there for such an action, as even some Republicans are
clearly opposed to this insanity, but the courage to call the president's
hand and lay down the cards is not.

And so the horrible march to disaster continues.

The cynicism of this administration is beyond belief. We have the supposedly
"straight talking" defense secretary Robert Gates telling Congress that
there is no plan "at the moment" to attack Iran--even as he sends two
aircraft carrier battle groups into the Persian Gulf and stockpiles Patriot
anti-missile batteries in the region (of what use are carriers and
anti-missile rockets in a counter-insurgency in Iraq?). We have the
president authorizing a blatantly illegal and clearly provocative attack on
an Iranian consulate in Irbil, Iraq, and violating international law by
arresting six people in that raid.

Let's be clear. An attack on Iran, which poses no immediate or imminent
threat to the United States, would be the most heinous of international war
crimes--a "crime against peace" violating the UN Charter and the Nuremburg
Charter. It would also be a strategic disaster that would dwarf even the
president's collassal strategic blunder in invading Iraq.

There are no more troops left to fight in Iran, so all the U.S. could hope
to do would be to bomb that country. But bombing that country would do
nothing to stop Iran from retaliating in myriad ways that could bring the
U.S. to its knees.

Take sappers. Iraq, which has a sophisticated and well-equipped espionage
apparatus, could set out on a campaign of sabatoge, blowing up U.S. chemical
plants, petrochemical refining and storage facilities, and power plants.
Since these are all known to be on the target list of U.S. bombers in Iran,
Iran would be well within its rights retaliating in kind inside U.S.
borders. If the U.S. were to follow its usual criminal practice of also
attacking Iraqi hospitals and other civilian targets, Iraqis could and
likely would follow suit. I wouldn't be surprised, given how long the
administration has been talking about attacking Iran, if its military
strategists hadn't already smuggled bombs into place in shipping containers,
ready to blow if we attack.

Feeling safer?

Iran has other options too, to hurt us. The Shia militias in Iraq, which
have largely ignored U.S. forces unless harassed, are tight with the
Iranians, having received shelter and support from Iran during Hussein's
brutal rule, and sharing, as they do, a common religion. If Iran comes under
attack, it is hard to believe that the Iraqi militias will now turn their
substantial firepower on outnumbered US forces in Iraq.

When you think of it, attacking Iran would be a wonderful way of doing what
the U.S. claims it has been wanting to do for several years now: uniting the
Sunni and Shia forces in Iraq and ending their fratricidal conflict. The
only problem is that they will be joining hands the better to attack U.S.
troops! How clever this administration is!

And then there's the economic costs of an Iran War. Here Iran really has to
do nothing, though it could make things all the worse by using one of its
high-tech anti-ship missiles to sink an American naval vessel or even just a
civilian tanker in the gulf. Even without such an action, an invasion of
Iran would lead to a shutdown of oil coming from the Persian Gulf. That's
one quarter of all the oil supplies in the world. Even if Iran never fires a
missile, the insurance industry will make it financially impossible for any
ship-owner to sail into the gulf.

So forget $80/barrel oil. Crude oil would quickly soar past $100 a barrel,
past $160 a barrel, probably. Some analysts have even talked of $200 a
barrel. No matter-after $100 a barrel, the world economy would grind to a
halt. And the American trade deficit would go through the roof. We're not
talking slowdown here,; we're talking global depression.

All this is clear,.

But it is also clear that the Congress doesn't have the guts and principle
to halt this march to madness.

And so we just continue to watch the patient die.
_______

About author Dave Lindorff is the author of Killing Time: an Investigation
into the Death Row Case of Mumia Abu-Jamal [1]. His new book of columns
titled "This Can't be Happening! [2]" is published by Common Courage Press.
Lindorff's new book is "The Case for Impeachment [3]," co-authored by
Barbara Olshansky. He can be reached at: dlindorff@yahoo.com [4]

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"A little patience and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their
spells dissolve, and the people recovering their true sight, restore their
government to its true principles. It is true that in the meantime we are
suffering deeply in spirit,
and incurring the horrors of a war and long oppressions of enormous public
debt. But if the game runs sometimes against us at home we must have
patience till luck turns, and then we shall have an opportunity of winning
back the principles we have lost, for this is a game where principles are at
stake."
-Thomas Jefferson