http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article1367183.ece
US elections: Bush fears the mid-term blues
The Republicans face their biggest challenge for 12 years, thanks to an
unpopular president and an equally unpopular war. But the Democrats should
not celebrate yet, warns Rupert Cornwell
Published: 06 September 2006
For an idea of the upheaval that may be about to overtake the US Congress,
just three words suffice: Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
This is no denigration of the member for California's 8th District in the
House of Representatives. She is as competent, ambitious and driven a
politician as they come. But nothing would so perfectly symbolise the
twilight of a conservative era as a House led by a woman with a near perfect
liberal voting record from the great city of San Francisco, a place that
lives in Republican mythology as Sodom and Gomorrah made flesh.
And the chances right now are that it will happen. America's mid-term
elections, in which all 435 House seats and a third of the Senate are at
stake, are just two months away. A new poll yesterday found the Democrats
leading by 53 per cent to 43 per cent in a generic vote for Congress, while
they are set to gain several state governorships as well. Rarely have the
stars been as favourably aligned - an unpopular President, an equally
unpopular foreign war, a stumbling economy, above all the pervasive mood
that the present lot have been in power too long, and that it's time for a
change.
America has been here before. The irresistible parallel is with the
mid-terms of 1994, the year of the "Republican Revolution" led by Newt
Gingrich - exuberant, iconoclastic and ruthless in equal measure - that
stunned Democrats who had taken their control of Congress for granted. For
the first time in 130 years, a sitting Speaker was voted out, and then
President Bill Clinton found himself obliged to declare that despite
everything he was still "relevant" to how the country was run.
That year the Republicans gained a net 53 seats and seized control of the
House which they have not relinquished to this day. Then as now, national
discontent with Congress was enormous. Then as now, the feeling was strong
that power had corrupted the incumbent party. Then as now, an overwhelming
majority - more than 70 per cent of Americans - felt the country was "on the
wrong track". In 1994, the "angry voter", who turned out en masse, decided
matters. The same is on the cards in 2006.
There are differences, of course. Sensing the national mood, Gingrich came
up 12 years ago with Contract with America, a catchy 10-point programme that
claimed to be a conservative manifesto for government. In 2006 Democrats
have produced nothing as ambitious.
The nearest equivalent is The Plan: Big Ideas for America, which was written
by two former advisers to Bill Clinton.
One of them is Rahm Emanuel, arguably the contemporary Democrat who most
resembles Gingrich. Opinionated, fast-talking and fiercely partisan, Emanuel
is now a member of Congress for a Chicago district, and widely tipped as the
next majority whip, the ruling party's third ranking post in Congress,
should the Democrats win on 7 November. But even he would not pretend that
the book, more of a treatise than a pamphlet, has all the answers.
Nor could it, given the rifts in Democratic ranks. The party is united above
all in its yearning to evict the Republicans from power. The party is split
on Iraq, divided on the crucial domestic issue of immigration, and torn
between a left wing that insists the party has not been liberal enough, and
centrists who yearn for a return to the Clinton strategy of compromise and
moderation - the "Third Way". The other big difference is the widespread
re-drawing of Congressional districts - gerrymandering by another name.
Redistricting is nothing new, but computer technology has refined it to a
previously unimaginable degree. Districts are now sculpted to the smallest
street, all in the interests of giving incumbents a safe berth.
As a result, congressional elections have in some respects become a travesty
of democracy. A swing in seats from one party to the other on the 1994 scale
is simply inconceivable. Of the 435 House seats, only 40-odd at the very
most are genuinely competitive. Nonetheless, Charles Cook and Stuart
Rothenburg, two of America's most respected and non-partisan analysts of
congressional politics, reckon that the Democrats are on course to make a
net gain of 15 to 20 House seats, perhaps a few more - and in any case
enough for victory.
The Senate is more problematic. Republicans now control the upper chamber by
55 to 45 (there are 44 Democrats and one independent who invariably votes
with them). In the event of a tie, Dick Cheney, the Vice-President, casts
the deciding vote. To capture control, Democrats must therefore gain six
seats among the 33 that are up in 2006.
Five are eminently do-able, in Pennsylvania, Montana, Rhode Island, Missouri
and Ohio. But a sixth would mean a win in Arizona, Virginia or Tennessee,
all three solid Republican territory. And to secure even that narrowest of
victories, Democrats would have to hang on to all of their own seats
contested this year. A Democratic Senate for the 110th Congress is possible,
both Rothenburg and Cook say, but as matters stand it is distinctly
unlikely.
And do not count the Republicans out. The tide, both presidential and
congressional, may be running against them. But the Republicans tend to be
better financed and better organised than their rivals. And to beat off the
Democratic attack, they have already devised a double defence. First, they
plan to beat the war on terror drum as loudly as possible. Second, and
simultaneously, close races will be depicted as contests between two
candidates to be judged on their own individual merits, rather than as part
of a national referendum on Mr Bush.
The White House did not even wait for the traditional campaign kick-off on
Labour Day to launch part one of their strategy. Iraq may be in chaos and
the economy showing signs of foundering, but Americans still give the
President a narrow edge in his handling of the terror threat - and last
week, as the country whiled away the last lazy days of August, Messrs Bush,
Rumsfeld and Cheney were making high-profile speeches, likening the
"Islamo-fascist" terrorist menace of today to the Nazi peril of the 1930s
and implying that Democrats are appeasers.
Indeed, listeners to the Defence Secretary's speech the other day to a
veterans' convention in Salt Lake City could be forgiven for imagining that
Neville Chamberlain had risen from the grave to lead the Democrats into
battle. As proof of this thesis, Republicans point to the shock defeat of
sitting Senator Joe Lieberman, a staunch supporter of the Iraq war, by an
anti-war candidate in last month's Democratic primary in Connecticut. What
more evidence was needed that the party of Franklin Roosevelt and John
Kennedy, had surrendered its soul to bloggers, lefties and peaceniks?
Such tactics worked in 2002 and 2004, but they may not do so again. Bush
aides scrambled to claim an administration hand in the foiling of Britain's
terror plot last month, and the President's approval ratings duly improved.
But they quickly fell back to 40 per cent or less. They may bounce back with
the approaching fifth anniversary of the 11 September terrorist attacks,
whose immediate aftermath was Bush's finest hour.
But unlike the congressional Democrats in 2002, or John Kerry two years
later, this time party leaders will not turn the other cheek to such
criticism. "The key on national security is, every time they hit us, strike
back strongly and hard," says Senator Charles Schumer, who is in charge of
the party's 2006 Senate campaign.
Most important, Americans no longer buy the White House line that Iraq is
the central front in the war on terror. There could yet be an "October
Surprise", an out-of-the-blue event - another terrorist attack, say, or less
plausibly a dramatic improvement on the ground in Iraq. But for Republicans,
these are slender straws to clutch at.
No less ominously, the economy is turning against the Republicans. After
almost five years of solid expansion, growth is slowing and consumer
spending is weakening. If the gloomiest forecasts are right, a collapse in
the housing market could lead to recession next year.
The Bush tax cuts have overwhelmingly favoured the rich. Ordinary
"middle-class" Americans are worried about jobs and pay. This too spells
trouble for the incumbent party. It is no co-incidence that many of the most
vulnerable Republican-held seats in the House are in the old industrial
states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Illinois, where such economic worries
are greatest.
A Democratic capture of the House - even of the Senate as well - will not
resolve these problems. Rather, the US would be back where it has spent much
of the past 40 years, with a divided government, and the certain prospect
that this President would veto any controversial measure sent him by a
Democratic Congress. The upshot would be more, rather than less, legislative
gridlock.
But even partial defeat for Republicans would hasten the end of the Bush
era. Almost every President is a lame duck in his final two years, as the
battle to succeed him grips the national attention. But this one's abysmal
approval ratings means he would be virtually a dead duck.
Finally too, his policies would come under the scrutiny by Capitol Hill
committees that has been shamefully absent since 2002, when the Democrats
lost a narrow majority in the Senate. Such, until January 2009 at least, may
be Washington's improbable age of Nancy Pelosi.
Where the fighting will be fiercest
1. OHIO
In the Senate, Republican incumbent Mike DeWine faces a tough challenge from
Democrat Sherrod Brown, who currently has a six-point lead. Ohio is a
bellwether state.
In the House, 15th District Republican incumbent Deborah Pryce is challenged
by Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy. A recent internal poll by Kilroy placed her
within three points of Pryce with 44 for Pryce and 41 for Kilroy.
In Ohio's 18th District, incumbent Republican Bob Ney is stepping down.
Democrat Zack Space is likely to face Republican Joy Padgett, who competes
in a Republican primary next week.
2. MISSOURI
James Talent is the Republican senator who has managed to build a six-point
lead over Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill.
3. RHODE ISLAND
Republican Senator Lincoln Chaffee faces a tough primary next week against
fellow Republican Steve Laffey. If he wins he will face one of several
Democrats, possibly Sheldon Whitehouse.
4. WASHINGTON
Incumbent Republican Dave Reichert, standing in the 8th District of
Washington state, is challenged by former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner.
Changing demographics mean a once staunchly Republican district is now much
less conservative.
5. ARIZONA
The 8th District race is wide open because gay Republican incumbent Jim
Kolbe is stepping down. Republican Randy Graf and Democrat Gabrielle
Giffords are leading polls for next week's primaries.
6. TEXAS
Former House leader Tom Delay, a close ally of President Bush, was forced to
step down in 22nd District after being caught up in a lobbying scandal.
Contest pits Democrat Nick Lampson against Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs.
7. NEW MEXICO
1st District Republican incumbent Heather Wilson is challenged by Democrat
Patricia Madrid, currently the state's attorney general. Wilson currently
leads the polls by only two points.
8. COLORADO
Bob Beauprez, the Republican incumbent in 7th District, is stepping down to
run for governor. Republican Rick O'Donnell is challenged by Democrat Ed
Perlmutter. Polls have them tied.
9. ILLINOIS
The 6th District Republican incumbent Henry Hyde is stepping down. Democrat
candidate Tammy Duckworth, an Iraqi veteran, faces Republican Peter Roskam,
a state senator. Polls are tied.
10. INDIANA
Republican incumbent Chris Chocola faces Democrat Joe Donnelly in 2nd
District. Polls from July give Donnelly a five point lead. In 9th District,
Republican incumbent Mike Sodrel is challenged by Democrat Baron Hill. Two
years ago Sodrel beat Hill, then the incumbent, by 1,425 votes - the
smallest margin in the 2004 race. Hill has slight poll lead.
11. VIRGINIA
Republican Thelma Drake is challenged in 2nd District by Democrat Philip
Kellam, supported by
MoveOn.Org. Kellam's own polls give him a three-point
lead.
12. FLORIDA
Twelve-term incumbent Republican Clay Shaw faces Democrat Ron Klein in 22nd
District in what for Shaw, who recently revealed he has lung cancer, will be
the toughest challenge in years.
13. NEW YORK
Republican incumbent Sherwood Boehlert is stepping down in 24th District
after 24 years. Moderate Republican Ray Meier faces Democrat Michael Arcuri,
who boasts a four-point lead.
14. CONNECTICUT
In the Senate, Joe Lieberman lost the Democratic primary to Ned Lamont and
will run as an independent. A recent poll predicts 45 to Lieberman, 43 to
Lamont and six to Republican Alan Schlesinger.
In the House, 2nd District Republican incumbent Robert Simmons, a Vietnam
veteran, faces a tough challenge from Democrat Joe Courtney. Simmons is a
friend of Senator John McCain.
The 4th District Republican incumbent Christopher Shays is challenged by
Democrat Dianne Farrell. Shays beat her by four points two years ago but
this time she is well-funded. Race considered very close.
15. PENNSYLVANIA
The Republican incumbent Jim Gerlach is challenged in 6th District by
Democrat Lois Murphy. Two years ago he won by two points but a recent poll
gave Murphy a 42-41 lead.
In the Senate, the conservative Republican incumbent Rick Santorum is
anything up to 18 points behind Democrat Robert Casey, though some polls are
tighter. Casey could lose votes if Green candidate Carl Romanelli gets on
the ballot.
Andrew Buncombe
For an idea of the upheaval that may be about to overtake the US Congress,
just three words suffice: Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
This is no denigration of the member for California's 8th District in the
House of Representatives. She is as competent, ambitious and driven a
politician as they come. But nothing would so perfectly symbolise the
twilight of a conservative era as a House led by a woman with a near perfect
liberal voting record from the great city of San Francisco, a place that
lives in Republican mythology as Sodom and Gomorrah made flesh.
And the chances right now are that it will happen. America's mid-term
elections, in which all 435 House seats and a third of the Senate are at
stake, are just two months away. A new poll yesterday found the Democrats
leading by 53 per cent to 43 per cent in a generic vote for Congress, while
they are set to gain several state governorships as well. Rarely have the
stars been as favourably aligned - an unpopular President, an equally
unpopular foreign war, a stumbling economy, above all the pervasive mood
that the present lot have been in power too long, and that it's time for a
change.
America has been here before. The irresistible parallel is with the
mid-terms of 1994, the year of the "Republican Revolution" led by Newt
Gingrich - exuberant, iconoclastic and ruthless in equal measure - that
stunned Democrats who had taken their control of Congress for granted. For
the first time in 130 years, a sitting Speaker was voted out, and then
President Bill Clinton found himself obliged to declare that despite
everything he was still "relevant" to how the country was run.
That year the Republicans gained a net 53 seats and seized control of the
House which they have not relinquished to this day. Then as now, national
discontent with Congress was enormous. Then as now, the feeling was strong
that power had corrupted the incumbent party. Then as now, an overwhelming
majority - more than 70 per cent of Americans - felt the country was "on the
wrong track". In 1994, the "angry voter", who turned out en masse, decided
matters. The same is on the cards in 2006.
There are differences, of course. Sensing the national mood, Gingrich came
up 12 years ago with Contract with America, a catchy 10-point programme that
claimed to be a conservative manifesto for government. In 2006 Democrats
have produced nothing as ambitious.
The nearest equivalent is The Plan: Big Ideas for America, which was written
by two former advisers to Bill Clinton.
One of them is Rahm Emanuel, arguably the contemporary Democrat who most
resembles Gingrich. Opinionated, fast-talking and fiercely partisan, Emanuel
is now a member of Congress for a Chicago district, and widely tipped as the
next majority whip, the ruling party's third ranking post in Congress,
should the Democrats win on 7 November. But even he would not pretend that
the book, more of a treatise than a pamphlet, has all the answers.
Nor could it, given the rifts in Democratic ranks. The party is united above
all in its yearning to evict the Republicans from power. The party is split
on Iraq, divided on the crucial domestic issue of immigration, and torn
between a left wing that insists the party has not been liberal enough, and
centrists who yearn for a return to the Clinton strategy of compromise and
moderation - the "Third Way". The other big difference is the widespread
re-drawing of Congressional districts - gerrymandering by another name.
Redistricting is nothing new, but computer technology has refined it to a
previously unimaginable degree. Districts are now sculpted to the smallest
street, all in the interests of giving incumbents a safe berth.
As a result, congressional elections have in some respects become a travesty
of democracy. A swing in seats from one party to the other on the 1994 scale
is simply inconceivable. Of the 435 House seats, only 40-odd at the very
most are genuinely competitive. Nonetheless, Charles Cook and Stuart
Rothenburg, two of America's most respected and non-partisan analysts of
congressional politics, reckon that the Democrats are on course to make a
net gain of 15 to 20 House seats, perhaps a few more - and in any case
enough for victory.
The Senate is more problematic. Republicans now control the upper chamber by
55 to 45 (there are 44 Democrats and one independent who invariably votes
with them). In the event of a tie, Dick Cheney, the Vice-President, casts
the deciding vote. To capture control, Democrats must therefore gain six
seats among the 33 that are up in 2006.
Five are eminently do-able, in Pennsylvania, Montana, Rhode Island, Missouri
and Ohio. But a sixth would mean a win in Arizona, Virginia or Tennessee,
all three solid Republican territory. And to secure even that narrowest of
victories, Democrats would have to hang on to all of their own seats
contested this year. A Democratic Senate for the 110th Congress is possible,
both Rothenburg and Cook say, but as matters stand it is distinctly
unlikely.
And do not count the Republicans out. The tide, both presidential and
congressional, may be running against them. But the Republicans tend to be
better financed and better organised than their rivals. And to beat off the
Democratic attack, they have already devised a double defence. First, they
plan to beat the war on terror drum as loudly as possible. Second, and
simultaneously, close races will be depicted as contests between two
candidates to be judged on their own individual merits, rather than as part
of a national referendum on Mr Bush.
The White House did not even wait for the traditional campaign kick-off on
Labour Day to launch part one of their strategy. Iraq may be in chaos and
the economy showing signs of foundering, but Americans still give the
President a narrow edge in his handling of the terror threat - and last
week, as the country whiled away the last lazy days of August, Messrs Bush,
Rumsfeld and Cheney were making high-profile speeches, likening the
"Islamo-fascist" terrorist menace of today to the Nazi peril of the 1930s
and implying that Democrats are appeasers.
Indeed, listeners to the Defence Secretary's speech the other day to a
veterans' convention in Salt Lake City could be forgiven for imagining that
Neville Chamberlain had risen from the grave to lead the Democrats into
battle. As proof of this thesis, Republicans point to the shock defeat of
sitting Senator Joe Lieberman, a staunch supporter of the Iraq war, by an
anti-war candidate in last month's Democratic primary in Connecticut. What
more evidence was needed that the party of Franklin Roosevelt and John
Kennedy, had surrendered its soul to bloggers, lefties and peaceniks?
Such tactics worked in 2002 and 2004, but they may not do so again. Bush
aides scrambled to claim an administration hand in the foiling of Britain's
terror plot last month, and the President's approval ratings duly improved.
But they quickly fell back to 40 per cent or less. They may bounce back with
the approaching fifth anniversary of the 11 September terrorist attacks,
whose immediate aftermath was Bush's finest hour.
But unlike the congressional Democrats in 2002, or John Kerry two years
later, this time party leaders will not turn the other cheek to such
criticism. "The key on national security is, every time they hit us, strike
back strongly and hard," says Senator Charles Schumer, who is in charge of
the party's 2006 Senate campaign.
Most important, Americans no longer buy the White House line that Iraq is
the central front in the war on terror. There could yet be an "October
Surprise", an out-of-the-blue event - another terrorist attack, say, or less
plausibly a dramatic improvement on the ground in Iraq. But for Republicans,
these are slender straws to clutch at.
No less ominously, the economy is turning against the Republicans. After
almost five years of solid expansion, growth is slowing and consumer
spending is weakening. If the gloomiest forecasts are right, a collapse in
the housing market could lead to recession next year.
The Bush tax cuts have overwhelmingly favoured the rich. Ordinary
"middle-class" Americans are worried about jobs and pay. This too spells
trouble for the incumbent party. It is no co-incidence that many of the most
vulnerable Republican-held seats in the House are in the old industrial
states such as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Illinois, where such economic worries
are greatest.
A Democratic capture of the House - even of the Senate as well - will not
resolve these problems. Rather, the US would be back where it has spent much
of the past 40 years, with a divided government, and the certain prospect
that this President would veto any controversial measure sent him by a
Democratic Congress. The upshot would be more, rather than less, legislative
gridlock.
But even partial defeat for Republicans would hasten the end of the Bush
era. Almost every President is a lame duck in his final two years, as the
battle to succeed him grips the national attention. But this one's abysmal
approval ratings means he would be virtually a dead duck.
Finally too, his policies would come under the scrutiny by Capitol Hill
committees that has been shamefully absent since 2002, when the Democrats
lost a narrow majority in the Senate. Such, until January 2009 at least, may
be Washington's improbable age of Nancy Pelosi.
Where the fighting will be fiercest
1. OHIO
In the Senate, Republican incumbent Mike DeWine faces a tough challenge from
Democrat Sherrod Brown, who currently has a six-point lead. Ohio is a
bellwether state.
In the House, 15th District Republican incumbent Deborah Pryce is challenged
by Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy. A recent internal poll by Kilroy placed her
within three points of Pryce with 44 for Pryce and 41 for Kilroy.
In Ohio's 18th District, incumbent Republican Bob Ney is stepping down.
Democrat Zack Space is likely to face Republican Joy Padgett, who competes
in a Republican primary next week.
2. MISSOURI
James Talent is the Republican senator who has managed to build a six-point
lead over Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill.
3. RHODE ISLAND
Republican Senator Lincoln Chaffee faces a tough primary next week against
fellow Republican Steve Laffey. If he wins he will face one of several
Democrats, possibly Sheldon Whitehouse.
4. WASHINGTON
Incumbent Republican Dave Reichert, standing in the 8th District of
Washington state, is challenged by former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner.
Changing demographics mean a once staunchly Republican district is now much
less conservative.
5. ARIZONA
The 8th District race is wide open because gay Republican incumbent Jim
Kolbe is stepping down. Republican Randy Graf and Democrat Gabrielle
Giffords are leading polls for next week's primaries.
6. TEXAS
Former House leader Tom Delay, a close ally of President Bush, was forced to
step down in 22nd District after being caught up in a lobbying scandal.
Contest pits Democrat Nick Lampson against Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs.
7. NEW MEXICO
1st District Republican incumbent Heather Wilson is challenged by Democrat
Patricia Madrid, currently the state's attorney general. Wilson currently
leads the polls by only two points.
8. COLORADO
Bob Beauprez, the Republican incumbent in 7th District, is stepping down to
run for governor. Republican Rick O'Donnell is challenged by Democrat Ed
Perlmutter. Polls have them tied.
9. ILLINOIS
The 6th District Republican incumbent Henry Hyde is stepping down. Democrat
candidate Tammy Duckworth, an Iraqi veteran, faces Republican Peter Roskam,
a state senator. Polls are tied.
10. INDIANA
Republican incumbent Chris Chocola faces Democrat Joe Donnelly in 2nd
District. Polls from July give Donnelly a five point lead. In 9th District,
Republican incumbent Mike Sodrel is challenged by Democrat Baron Hill. Two
years ago Sodrel beat Hill, then the incumbent, by 1,425 votes - the
smallest margin in the 2004 race. Hill has slight poll lead.
11. VIRGINIA
Republican Thelma Drake is challenged in 2nd District by Democrat Philip
Kellam, supported by
MoveOn.Org. Kellam's own polls give him a three-point
lead.
12. FLORIDA
Twelve-term incumbent Republican Clay Shaw faces Democrat Ron Klein in 22nd
District in what for Shaw, who recently revealed he has lung cancer, will be
the toughest challenge in years.
13. NEW YORK
Republican incumbent Sherwood Boehlert is stepping down in 24th District
after 24 years. Moderate Republican Ray Meier faces Democrat Michael Arcuri,
who boasts a four-point lead.
14. CONNECTICUT
In the Senate, Joe Lieberman lost the Democratic primary to Ned Lamont and
will run as an independent. A recent poll predicts 45 to Lieberman, 43 to
Lamont and six to Republican Alan Schlesinger.
In the House, 2nd District Republican incumbent Robert Simmons, a Vietnam
veteran, faces a tough challenge from Democrat Joe Courtney. Simmons is a
friend of Senator John McCain.
The 4th District Republican incumbent Christopher Shays is challenged by
Democrat Dianne Farrell. Shays beat her by four points two years ago but
this time she is well-funded. Race considered very close.
15. PENNSYLVANIA
The Republican incumbent Jim Gerlach is challenged in 6th District by
Democrat Lois Murphy. Two years ago he won by two points but a recent poll
gave Murphy a 42-41 lead.
In the Senate, the conservative Republican incumbent Rick Santorum is
anything up to 18 points behind Democrat Robert Casey, though some polls are
tighter. Casey could lose votes if Green candidate Carl Romanelli gets on
the ballot.
Andrew Buncombe
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Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107
"A little patience and we shall see the reign of witches pass over, their
spells dissolve, and the people recovering their true sight, restore their
government to its true principles. It is true that in the meantime we are
suffering deeply in spirit,
and incurring the horrors of a war and long oppressions of enormous public
debt. But if the game runs sometimes against us at home we must have
patience till luck turns, and then we shall have an opportunity of winning
back the principles we have lost, for this is a game where principles are at
stake."
-Thomas Jefferson
